My last post about bitcoin fears and doubts looks to be transpiring at the moment. Price is dropping, not quite spewing off a cliff but still not looking convincing either. I’m thinking it likely bitcoin will fall further yet. Maybe we’ll find good support just below or around $400..
Heres an updated bitstamp chart with 1 day candles on linear price scale.
After my last post I had drawn in a couple more parallel lines to the slope of my pitchfork. As you can see price has bounced almost exactly where I might have expected which was at about $440. Although that pitchfork I drew in originally hasn’t held at all it has been useful in predicting minor lines of support. The fact that these lines slope upwards does provide some optimism but I think prices have to correct further first. Bulls have to feel more pain before the bull really starts getting going again.
As a bit of an update to the log chart I posted in my last bitcoin post heres a new version of it, this time using TradingView and some of the nice charting tools that come with it.
In the past I’ve sometimes wondered if the last two bubbles in bitcoin were really one big bubble. To me it seems increasingly like that is indeed the case. Some longer term readers of my blog might remember the long term log channel I often posted about. Maybe this channel is an extension of that old favorite.. Is price going to drop back into this channel? The bottom of that channel looks to be about $161 these days, quite a steep correction from the all-time high!! Maybe we’ll find support instead at the top of that channel, which would be about $400.
What to do if bitcoin is poised for steep falls ? Run to the US dollar ? I guess that is indeed what most people will do. Or could you run to your favorite alt-coin instead ? I think at the moment altcoins are falling as people rush to liquidate first to bitcoins then to dollars. What if that trend breaks at some point and alt-coins benefit from a rush out of bitcoin. Could investors opt to stay and hide out in crypto world instead of a rush to fiat? Its an interesting thought.
If you are from the USA you have to declare all bitcoin transactions for tax purposes if I’m not mistaken. Maybe it will benefit some people to declare a loss and cash out to fiat. Or maybe it will benefit some to stay out from under the fiat radar. The system of control, under the watchfull gaze of the illuminate all seeing eye of Isis, printed in the money, hidden not particularly well throughout entertainment and media.
anyway I digress. Maybe for some it might turn out profitable to cash out of bitcoin to some other alt-coin which may be extrememly oversold at the moment ;-)
Incidentally, this is the second of two posts I’ve done today, don’t miss my Cloakcoin post below.