Heading down

In my last post I finished with a look at bitcoin price heading to hopefully bounce off the top of the long-ish term log channel. This post will start with that updated chart.

Without any ceremony price looks a bit like it is dropping or has already dropped through the top trendline which we’ve been above since the April 2013 bubble took off, except for very brief spike in silk road panic. Maybe its still too early to call but if bitcoin is going to bounce off from here it better start looking a bit more convincing and do it quick.

If bitcoin is falling through that trendline, or already has then that could mean price is not going to take off any time soon, but more likely continue lower possibly for quite some time yet to eventually meet the lower trendline somewhere near $200.

Not jumping to conclusions quite yet but for first time in quite a long time might be considering selling bitcoin and rebuying at lower price.

In the alt-coin space however quite a few of the more established alts have had good runs lately. For example peercoin is having very nice spike after what must have been agonising long drop for peer-coin holders.

Others enjoying spikes in price include Dogecoin, Feathercoin, Namecoin, Darkcoin and probably a few others, noteably not litecoin (yet?). As bitcoin mining becomes less profitable are miners shifting to other alt-coins instead ? Is it worth considering the idea of switching some bit-coin to established alt-coins instead of fiat ?

Unfortunately Cloakcoin is not on the list of alt-coins getting a boost lately, my ‘favorite’ pick of the anoncoins is in complete disarray now and looks quite likely to be heading down to zero. I would love the devs to proove me wrong and pull a rabbit out of a hat with the promised POSA anonymity technology, but that scenario is looking less and less likely every day. After failed audit and missed deadlines the developers have all but disappeared now and coin looks to be dying. Very sad really, looked so exciting based on what was promised, credentials of the developers in the end dissapointed.

With most of my favourite investments heading down, it is testing times for my core assumptions that gold, silver and bitcoin will offer protection through financial calamity which is coming. However I still hold strong. Peering below the booming stock market the global economy looks as precarious as ever from my viewpoint. The soothing tales of recovery will eventually be replaced with shocking news that no-one could have seen coming.

Lacklustre Bitcoin

Remember those days when bitcoin was heading up? Ah such a long time ago. Here we are still wallowing in low prices and looking to be heading lower.

Interestingly I’ve seen a few people from the precious metals sphere, once against bitcoin, now bitcoin believers who think bitcoin is being manipulated down along with gold and silver. Something I’ve hypothesised many times on here. You can’t allow competition! Imagine if say, powerful government forces took all the silk road and mt gox bitcoins, oh they already did. Some bitcoins were auctioned as we know, but the rest ? The theory goes that just like in precious metal whenever it looks like some enthusiasm may be coming into the market then quantities are drip fed and sold to suppress price rises and kill enthusisam.

If something like that is happening it has a limited shelf life, unless they find another way to sieze more bitcoin. Mind you last two bubble were fed by mtgox trading bots or something weren’t they.

Heres how the chart is looking just now as usual on Bitstamp in unbacked US paper dollars.

Note fancy new area fill! Can still see crisscrossing bullish and bearish trendlines forming wedges within wedges. Price is falling below my lowest green trendline though. Is it going to keep falling? A fall towards $400 doesn’t look too improbable really.

Heres a closer view showing price since last April low.

There is still evidence bullish forces are causing my green trendlines to provide some support however not enough to fuel a rally it seems.

To close I’ll show a quick update to my log view and ‘longish’ term channel with Bitstamp data. I can’t easily compare the full long term channel I used to look at which was using MtGox data not Bitstamp. Maybe thats a challenge for some other day to make a chart showing mtgox and bitstamp together to provide a fuller view of bitcoin history.

Base on this chart of all the Bitstamp data,  maybe the current bear move will meet some strong resistance where top trendline of that channel is, which is above $400. Will be interesting to keep an eye on that.

Silver log

Heres a silver update. Just like gold, silver is being smashed down, in fact even more so when you consider the gold silver ratio is near 70 at the moment. In a world of unchecked central bank money creation with trillions of dollars sloshing around the system unbelievably some force is continuing pressing silver price down, while the stock market rages to ever higher highs. Yay a recovery! The economy is fixed! Lets celebrate by getting into more debt, buy a holiday, buy a new car. Yay.

Oops sorry nearly got caught up in the keynsian utopian central planned collectivist dream their for a second. Silver, it is almost below cost of mining in fact.

I often talk about rock solid support, will it be broken this time as we approach what might be a quadruple bottom? Who knows in this bizzare world, but I think unlikely however I’ll be very eager to buy more if it does. How cheap can it possibly go in this environment ?

Heres a chart I wanted to share which shows price of silver since the bull market began on log price scale, versus US ‘paper’ dollars.

As you can see we are looking for support on a trendline which was last hit on the bottom of the crash in 2008. How will silver fare this time. I exect a nice bounce starting soon. Below that there is horizontal support which bears have failed to penetrate. Maybe the bullion banks will try a gargantuan naked sale of paper silver on the comex to try and get below this technical area. Good luck to them. I quite fancy some even cheaper silver just before the economy falls apart.

Testing time for Cloak

At end of my last Cloak post I reminded to buy the rumour sell the news. Well news was seemingly bad, or at least disappointing, theres been a big selloff based on the fact an anticipated code release has been delayed. Larger than anyting I expected unfortunatley, this sell off has in typical Cloak style been quite huge! The volatility in the tiny little alt-coin markets is quite breathtaking at times.

!Caution always advised in alt-coins!

Heres a look at latest chart from mintpal data, showing price in bitcoin with 4hour candles.

We are back below that 0.0004 level already, which I had thought would provide solid support. But what do I know? Price dipped below my lowest trendline too which I don’t like. I won’t be surprised to see further waves of selloff. Noteably the infamous BobSurplus user is back in the forum spreading doubt again, perhaps he’s after somemore cheap cloakcoin who can say.

I’m not sure how often I’ll post Cloak updates at the moment, still thinking about it. Timewise don’t have a lot to spare for extra posting at the moment and don’t want to feel responsible for losses people may incur based on my thoughts and opinions expressed here. Don’t be surprised if I don’t post very frequently on it, doesn’t mean I’ve lost interest.

Cloak marketing seem to be quite busy still and have come up with this quite snazzy video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_UyJS5uJTns

If you are Scottish I have one word for you … YES

Time for another look at Bitcoin

I’ve been removing some of the lines that were beginning to clutter up my chart a bit, and added a few new downtrending ones that seem to fit the chart quite well and I really should have been looking at before now.

So heres bitcoins priced in those lovely government, fiat, unbacked, green, banking, all-seeing eye dollars from the US of A, data from Bitstamp with 1 day candles and showing all of that huge price bubble we are so used to now.

As you can see the resistance which is stopping bitcoin rising with my nice green trendlines which I’ve been liberally sprinkling all over my charts for some time now is those pesky red trendlines originating from near the price peak at beginning of the year. Price at the moment looks to be finding good support at the lower green trendline, hopefully that will continue. Red lines are forming a wedge, within a wedge, if we break out this one will still be in a bigger one. Its bitcoin wars! Epic struggle of bears versus bulls … yawn, wake me up when its bullish again already.

When I saw that chart I got a feeling of deja vu in fact. Back in April last year I produced a similar chart describing the situation after the April 2013 bubble had collapsed and looked to be consolidating, Bitcoin wars, http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/04/29/bitcoin-wars-the-battle-continues/

Cloakstrong

Cloak has burst up through a key level of resistance at about 0.0004, reaching above 0.0005 in fact. That 0.0004 level will hopefully now provide quite solid support for next phase of consolidation, I’d have thought. (Not trying to tempt fate again). For good measure Cloak is also up through a trend line extending downward from the peak. Happy days.

Heres a look at the damage using mintpal data on log scale of Cloak priced in Bitcoin, courtesy of BitcoinWisdom website.

Aside from the fact that cloak looked incredibly oversold after that pump n dump crash rumours abound that the developers are close to releasing something significant. If rumours turn out to be true I’d be a little cautious. how does it go, buy rumour sell news or something.

Anyway nice to see recovery looking strong for now.

Cloak – Resistance at 0.0004

Heres a quick look at Cloakcoin vs Bitcoin, using mintpal data and 4 hour candles with log price scale

This chart is produced using BitcoinWisdom which allows me to draw a few lines in the sand which you can see here. At the bottom is what looks like a line of support, I have two similar horizontal lines at about 0.0004 which is the horizontal resistance mentioned in the title of this post. Price has reached there about three times so far, I’m expecting it should finally manage to break up above that eventually (unless there happens to be some unforseen setbacks in the development of the Cloak ‘ecosystem’). I didn’t show a long enough timescale on this chart but those lines at 0.0004 previously used to be support. I also have two trendlines sloping down of resistance, one of which has already been broken and another which may come into play later.

It should be fairly self explanitory but looks like price may be wedged below 0.0004 for a little while yet, but supported by the lower trendline. If that lower trendline fails as support I’ll be getting a bit nervous. Until then, happy days.

Gold smashed

It seems during the United States public holiday the other day someone forgot to switch off the trading algos and gold has been manipulated down during the time the markets were closed.. Price is now below some key technical points in the chart including 200day moving average gold is in waterfall decline mode. Heres the decline on todays spot chart.

For much more indepth discussions on gold and silver and the end of ‘The Great Kenynsian Experiment’ I highly recommend having a look at Turd Fergusons blog, and bookmark it if you don’t already read it regularly, heres Turds latest public post http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6089/removing-any-doubt

Anyway heres my updated gold chart showing last couple of years gold price with 1 day candles.

Not looking bullish compared to last time I posted gold when that promising pitchfork was still holding. Now price broken below that fork. In fact, you might say is grinding down similar to bitcoin. Price is also now below a wedge I had marked in with pink trendlines. What does this mean? Economy is healthy and rosy, gold is a relic only used by central banks for traditional purposes and serving no real purpose just now. Yeah, something like that.

My conclusion is same as always, hold gold, silver and bitcoins while the economy continues its path to ruin.

Grinding down

I’m a bit overdue another post so without further ado heres a look at a few charts. Starting with bitcoin, heres an update to my chart showing Bitstamp data with 1 day candles, as usual price in US dollars.

With bitcoin falling back down below $500 the inverse chart pattern mentioned in my last post hasn’t played out, instead price is looking to retest a trend line at around $450. If that line fails to hold I think further support will be found under there possibly where I’ve marked another parallel trend line. As I’ve mentioned a few times lately I’ve been predicting a bit of a long grind downwards in bitcoin, the way its playing out still seems to fit the idea I had in mind.

As many of you might know well, I often like to look at log scale for bigger perspective, so heres a look at Bitstamp on log price scale.

This chart stretches way back to end of 2012 which is a long time in bitcoin world. From look of channel I’ve drawn in, might expect price to start a rally from the area around the top of that channel as has happened a couple of times before, noteably at the start of the Dec 2013 ‘bubble’ which followed the Silk Road crash. A sudden dip down towards $400 with a sharp rebound might be the kind of event to fit that picture if a similar thing were to occur. Its not inconceivable that price could fall down into that channel however I don’t think that is particularly likely I couldn’t rule it out completely.

To finish up I’ll also have a quick look at Cloak which is one of the alt-coins most interesting me at the moment, data here taken from Mintpal, showing 12 hour candles on log price scale.
Note with most alt-coin charts I post the price scale is in bitcoins not US dollars. So falling in price means falling compared to bitcoins and vice versa with rising price.

Not wanting to tempt fate too much as the altcoin markets are so volatile, not to mention wide open to unscrupulous pump n dumps and other cons. However to me it looks like Cloak has completed its crash, perhaps you could call that a double bottom. At the moment price is continuing a bit of a recovery, noticable on log price scale much more than linear scale, it appears to have broken through a minor line of resistance. I’m hoping to see support along that rising trendline if or when price falls again.

Bullish bitcoin – Inverse head n shoulders

Complete credit to Artiti if this plays out, shared in comments recently .. Looks like an inverse head n shoulders pattern could be on the cards. Heres a chart.

Hopefully the pattern is obvious. To me looks quite like a rebound up to $600 might be on the cards for bitcoin.

I have a confession to make which is that I’m following Cloakcoin much more avidly than bitcoin and precious metals at the moment. So having got confession out the way, heres some more thoughts on cloakcoin.

Cloakcoin as you recall was very recently ‘spewed off a cliff’. I was quite confidently expecting a large deadcat bounce but what have we got instead? Well its a feeble dead cat bounce if you can even call it that with even larger sell volumes pushing price down further!

I’m not going to bother with a chart just now, try to imagine a spew off a cliff then another vomit. Huge 200000 volume selling space of only a few minutes from out of nowhere has caused price to cascade down further in a waterfall decline. Anyone who follows precious metals knows this scenario. Manipulated markets?