The falls from that double top are looking pretty brutal already. Price down to about $716 US on MtGox as I write, down about 16.5% for the day.
Anyhow without much further ado, I thought I’d post the latest update to my fork just, on this chart showing last couple of days with 30min candles.
The fork points down pretty damn steeply but even then the price fell out the bottom of it, so I’ve extended it to show additional trendlines below. If the price can get into the top of the fork might see a rally back towards $800, perhaps a recovery which will really be a dead cat bounce, however it would be battling against the bear trend we are now in and more likely will keep dropping in the near future.
I’m still looking at the double top formation to provide first target, which is somewhere around $440 I think. Doesn’t mean the bear trend will end there but it looks like a good candidate for now. Not much to add to that. If you hoping i would say bottom was in, I dont think it is myself.
Usual disclaimer, any trading advice given here is taken at your own risk.
Well looks like my bearish angst was indeed justified. Price is down to about $860 as I write this and earlier fell out the bottom of that ‘new channel’ I had hopes for with no real resistance. Instead looks like its falling within the bearish fork I was looking at in my last post. So heres an update to that fork.
Not only that the possible double top formation looks like it has been confirmed too with the price falling below the valley between the tops. Not saying it has to, but if this plays out the target would be down below $500.
My own experience of this drop has been frustrating, having successfully predicted it, I decided I wanted to sell some of my stack but its taking ages for the transfer from my wallet to reach localbitcoins and still hasn’t got there yet, hours later. Is this because I didn’t set fees in my wallet? Or is the blockchain getting too unwieldy? It doesn’t usually take this long does it?
On that note I’m having some existential doubts about the whole scalability of bitcoins. The blockchain is now about 14G and will keep growing. Perhaps its time to convert some of this crypto money into real gold and silver?
I know I’m a bit of a perma bull but today I have a nagging feeling that I’m not looking at bearish possibilities enough. And I’m not really talking about the news from china either. But on technical side the way the bottom of the channel was breached is bothering me a little bit. In all honesty for the price to rise from a couple of hundred bucks to over a thousand in only a month or so.. Is it hard to imagine it has done this without getting ahead of itself a little too much and ready for further downside ?
Anyway, heres how the channel is looking on MtGox with 1hour candles.
The price is near the bottom of the channel but so far, since that last plunge, theres not much evidence the slope of the channel is influencing anything. It will be interesting to note if the bottom of the channel shows any support when or if the price drops to that level.
Maybe there is merit to the idea of looking at a new fork, something like this?
Perhaps theres even a (short term) trend reversal double top pattern being formed. I’ve marked an area of very strong horizontal resistance a few times but if that gets breeched then it would look like a double top and a trip down to $400 might not be so far fetched.
That would look like something like this.
But! Its bitcoins. How many times has it not listened to any bearish script?
Anyway thats enough of my angst.
Bitcoin price just fell from $1240 down to $840 on MtGox which is quite a plunge! Thats the second time bitcoins price has tounched gold and then.. Wham! I wonder how many more bitcoins the FED have left now
Heres a chart with 1 hour candles.
As you can note by the small blue lines on my chart, there was further weakness in the momentum recently so another dip was not really unexpected, I didn’t think it would be so large or steep as that though. Wonder why it went like that? HFT algos or something? Big whale deciding to move the market perhaps? Attempt to suppress the unsuppressable ?
That fall was enough to shoot down through the bottom of my nice new channel too. Boo! However looks to have rebounded in an area of horizontal support I noted last time which seems to be very strong support. There has been a rebound back into the channel however the price looks like its testing the bottom again and may be about to fall below it.
Anyway despite that, I still like my channel and not ready to abandon it quite yet. If this was a manipulation attempt to suppress the price it could well backfire, just as Silk Road takedown cleared out the weak hands for the next leg up, maybe this will do the same.
Looking forward to the next battle with gold when it comes.. Round Three!
Check it out. The fight between gold and bitcoins. Its going to the wire. This chart is showing 5 min candles!
Bitcoins is racing up to new all time highs, just when it looked like gold was staring defeat in the face a sudden desperate lunge up, a huge candle for gold, but still dwarfed by the gigantic bitcoin candles.
Can gold stay ahead? Tune in next week.
With the fork beginning to lose its magic touch I’ve had another look at the charts and I’m quite liking the look of this potential new channel, shown here on a chart with 1 hour candles.
Have stuck in a few trendlines within the channels which I’ll no doubt tinker with as things develop. Based on this channel price could dip as low as $880 in this current correction.
With hindsight being such a wonderful thing, maybe I should have given more attention to the bearish divergance I saw the other day when I called for a dip, after which I unfortunately changed my mind. Price is now falling quite dramatically and has spiked below the bottom of my fork and looks to be still falling.
Anyway heres how its looking compared to my fork at the moment with 1 hour candles.
To try and guess where support might be found I’ve extended the fork with some lower trendlines, failing that perhaps we’ll head all the way down back to the 600′s where I’ve shown a possible blue line of support. Guess I’ll just wait and see.
Edit: Just been watching the price leaping up and down, quite manic! Maybe I should log off and go for a relaxing bath or find something better to do. Anyway heres aother idea for support which just occured to me. Looks like quite a strong area of horizontal support here.