Testing trendlines

In last post I highlighted the lower pink trendline as key line to watch. Jury out but it looks like it was briefly broken but may have held afterall. Bitcoin is currently sitting back above that line.

Heres bitstamp with 4 hour candles

Zooming out to chart with 1 day candles showing last two bubbles gives another perspective on that pink channel. If the pink channel holds for a few months we would see steady gains but might not reach new all time highs until next year. Although when does bitcoin stay in any channel for a length of time, particularly in linear price scale?

Eyeballing the flat period after the last years April bubble I wonder if the pink channel is about to fail and we enter a gradual grind down. That last test was not really convincing although in the end won out. Will it pass the next test? Or might it end up looking a bit like the area I have sketched in after the last April peak with a question mark? If that comparison has any merit it could be quite a long boring flat period still in store for bitcoin.

However, for yet another perspective I have been playing with log chart again. As you probably know I did not like the way my beloved log channel failed, so my solution is simple, I made a new log channel!

This time I have defined the slope by the last two peaks rather than the points I previously used on bottom of troughs. Creating a channel this way gives a new bottom trendline which we are still sitting quite well above. If this situation plays out a bit like the arrows I drew in then the slow grind down after the pink channel fails might not last as long as feared.

In the end I could just as well scatter some tea leaves and try and interpret them, but drawing lines on charts is fun. My prognosis is that likely to see the pink channel fail, then enter a boring grind downwards. Eventually the patient may well be rewarded with spectacular moves up.

Why CoinFinance is the Go-To Investment Tracker for Digital Currency

Unlike my normal posts this time I am passing on some information about CoinFinance, a new website offering trading and accounting tools to track the value of your crypto currencies. If this sounds interesting to you read on. Note: This is not an endorsement from AFBitcoins


Why CoinFinance is the Go-To Investment Tracker for Digital Currency

CoinFinance is a professional cryptocurrency portfolio tracking application that supports more than 300 alternative coins. It features a range of tools that are designed to help investors monitor daily changes in their digital currencies, as well as determine their total coin wealth in multiple currencies (Bitcoin, US Dollar, Chinese Yuan and Euro). This application is a reliable resource for members of the cryptocurrency community; aside from in-site tools like a currency converter, a list of gainers and losers and a mining calculator, it also features a list of external links to the latest news and top stories on bitcoin and altcoins. CoinFinance is a one-stop platform that helps cryptocurrency investors make timely and well-informed decisions about their portfolio—all for free and with assured full anonymity.

Price Quotes, Charts, Coin Market Cap and Blogger Tools

Investors have to know how to analyze cryptocurrency markets and understand the fluctuations in coin values over time. CoinFinance presents real-time information as well as aggregate and disaggregate daily, weekly and monthly data that are essential in deciding when to acquire, dispose or hold coins. Users can easily search for price quotes using the search tab in the header. The home page also features a bitcoin price chart displaying three different bitcoin trading schemes (CoinBase, BTC-e and Bitstamp) with corresponding change percentage.

The home page also displays the gainers and losers chart on the right, the coin market capitalization ranking on the left, and the four most popular daily cryptocurrencies below the ranking. These lists and charts are all interactive; clicking on a coin will lead to a specific and detailed list that includes the value of the coin in different currencies, mining difficulty and coin circulation. Portfolio owners can track coins by simply adding them to their portfolio through the “add to your portfolio” button.

CoinFinance is an enriching resource not only for serious cryptocurrency investors but also for bloggers on business and finance. The platform has a section on widgets, which allows site visitors to copy codes for coin prices as well as winners and losers for embedding in external websites. The coin price widget can be customized to display information on a particular cryptocoin, including its current price in the currency selected, its highest and lowest values for the day, and its price movements in the last 24 hours. At the bottom of the page are links to coin prices and currency information on Bitcoin, LiteCoin, DarkCoin, Peercoin, Dogecoin, Blackcoin, X11coin, Supercoin, IsraelCoin, Quark, VertCoin, FeatherCoin, MegaCoin, AuroraCoin and PotCoin.

Another look at bitcoin

Having been offline for a while, its about time I posted a bitcoin update. Heres a look at my latest bitstamp chart with 1 day candles.

Main thing to watch appears to be the pink line showing the bottom of the large uptrending channel. From bullish perspective I would be hoping to see a big bounce off the bottom pink trendline. However I remain uneasy about the way we have dipped under the log trendline I liked so much, shown approximately with thick dashed line and wouldnt be too surprised to see that bottom pink line fail as support too. I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of days.

In comments of my previous bitcoin post CB has shared a nice view of the consolidation of this bubble as comparison to previous bubble. This is a hypothesis I quite like which is we may see a final bearish wipeout prior to sudden moves back to the upside. Heres the link if you missed it. http://screencast.com/t/0gQoyeD7

Gold fork

In gold this bullish fork still looks valid however bottom is about to be tested. Green blob shows where I would be looking for support in gold, fall to about $1290 looks likely.

Zooming out looks like this.

As usual silver is moving similar to gold, down when gold goes down, up when gold goes up, except in more exaggerated and volatile fashion. If silver has no monetary properties but gold does, is that not a wierd co-incidence? Why would silver the metal with allegedly only industrial uses do that?

Theres not much evidence for a similar fork in silver however I have sketched one in anyway.

In both gold and silver I remain convinced that the bull market is resuming.

Bitcoin marches on

The silk road coins have been auctioned, and all sold to one bidder. In the process bitcoin has been almost officially given a stamp of approval from US Marshals as fungible units of exchange. Looks like the market approved of this result with prices shooting up towards $650. Heres bitstamp with 4 hour candles.

The area around the bottom of the pink channel, marked with green blob is where I hoped for support once the log trend line had been broken and we did find it. The line marked with a green arrow looks reassuringly distant now. But what of the log trend line which was rudely violated? well I don’t know maybe its a blip, or perhaps not… I sure don’t know.

Moving onto litecoin, heres a look at the litecoin/bitcoin ratio which I’ve often referred to in previous post.

Is it just me or is litecoin starting to look cheap? I’ve updated the chart since last time very slightly to show what looks like a very wide channel aligning the last two peaks and the last two drops.

This time litecoin’s fall is accompanied by a story, the backdrop of which is that ASIC mining has removed the one reason to buy litecoin. Centralisation plaguing bitcoin with the advent of asic mining will now move to litecoin too. New alt-coins are evolving which are asic resistant and will keep mining decentralised which will inevitably replace litecoin. I wonder if these ideas of the death of litecoin are premature though. Litecoin has a kind of pedigree, for example it is accepted in more places than any alt-coin and second only to bitcoin.

Having said all that it doesn’t look like the time is ripe for another of those huge green candles on the ratio chart. Those last two candles occurred when bitcoin was rampaging on new all time high bubble peaks. This time bitcoin is still barely getting started and still quite a way below all time highs. If you do switch some bitcoin to litecoin looks quite probably you may have to endure further falls before any sudden spikes upwards.

Have been planning to write about some of the new coins which aim to provide anonymity in transactions, (in my opinion the biggest thing bitcoin lacks). Darkcoin, while not truly anonymous is consolidating quite well despite a few setbacks recently with their latest updates.

Cloak is another one which has caught my eye as potentially could be huge, unlike darkcoin and some others which use coinjoin transaction mixing technology, Cloak aims for a different method of anonymous transaction which may end up becoming completely decentralised. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=637704.0

Log trend fail

Shown above, the the grizzly chart in log price scale. The beloved Bitstamp log channel isn’t holding. Who’d have thunk it ?

Heres similar chart with linear price scale against my familiar trendlines.

I hate being bearish bitcoin but at the moment its not looking great, that log trendline was quite an important line in the sand which is now breached.. Will there be support on bottom of pink channel at about $550 ? Can hope so but I think it could go way bit lower now, might head down towards levels I’ve shown with blue horizontal line. Part of reason for that thinking is suspect head n shoulders pattern just about completing.

On bright and shiney side gold and silver are headin up!

Retesting the log trend

As usual I opened my mouth too early in my last post talking about how the log trend hasn’t been retested. Since that post bitcoin hasn’t been convincing at all, fell through the support I mentioned and is now heading down for that retest afterall.

Heres bitstamp data with 1 day candles on log price scale

Anyones guess what will happen next, with uncertainty over the FED bitcoin auction still looming will the unthinkable happen and bitcoin slide under that trendline ? I’m not even going to try and guess but it does look a possibility. In the world of bitcoin nothing can be taken for granted, even the log trendline.