Silver update

Readers of this blog will know that besides bitcoin I also believe in gold and silver which are just like bitcoin, unprintable by bankers (not that you’d think it sometimes the way the price seems manipulated by paper markets). But wether rightly or wrongly I believe holding some of your savings in the form of physical gold and silver and bitcoin of course will put you in an excellent position as the economy continues on a path to ruin. But wait …. news just in. the economy is in fact recovering! Everyone says so on telly and that, buy stocks the FED has you covered!

Fiat currency of course IS actually printable in any unlimited quantity bankers decide to choose, and they always choose a lot if you get my drift. Just thought I’d throw that in. You could  try and get into the raging bull markets in stocks if you have a stomach for getting out in time. Good luck with that

Anyway enough of my rambling, heres an overdue update to my silver chart, this one is long term with 1 week candles stretching back to 2005, on log price scale.

So first things first, look at that! the rock solid support promised in my previous post is smashed down! Silver falling like a rock! Below my horizontal support, (the upper blue horizontal line) and below my long term log trend line (red dashed), that picture looks terrible.. technically!!! Sell mortimer, silver is going to zero

Or does it? Well anyway, to me at least, silver seems oversold looking at RSI indicator. Additionally there is a divergence in RSI compared to price marked with pink lines. Just saying.

If there is one thing the central planners are good at it is painting the silver chart. Do you think its an accident the chart looks so aweful. Or are the central bankers fighting tooth and nail against competition. Is that aweful chart so aweful by design?

Off on a slight tangent but I hate the way silver has value added tax when you go to buy some? Why do they tax it in that way but not gold? Silver has as much a monetary history as gold if not more. Bah! Ive said it before its a currency war but not what you might think. The war is against us,. the little people, wether you are from USA, China, Russia, Europe or where ever you are you shouldn’t have money that holds value.

Heres a couple of video links which I thought are worth watching.

And if you are not familiar with JS Kim’s awesome work spreading knowledge you’d do well to check him out, heres his latest.


Bitcoin view

Haven’t really been posting a great deal because to be honest I haven’t seen much to post about thats different from my view expressed in most of my latest posts. Sloooow grind down. (With a few rallys scattered around). I still think thats whats in store really, I’m talking about on longer timescales here which is usually the timescales that interest me.

Heres some charts.

Bitstamp stretching back last year and half or so on linear timescale with 1 day candles.

The last rally broke up through lower of the red trendlines but is now following that trendline down. Price is dropping at the moment, down about 4.5% today as I write. I think it could fall further to about $320 then bounce off that lower red trendline, perhaps starting another rally.. or not.

Heres a look at a similar timescale again bitstamp data but this time on log price scale

A while ago I painted some arrows on there to show how we may visit the bottom of that long term channel I’ve been looking at. Here you can see that the price so far is pretty much bang on my predication. At the moment price playing out like this still seems to be most likely to me. More boring grind down. No moonshot in sight for a little while yet. (Though I’d be happy to be proved wrong.)

Thats it for now, happy hodling

Looking up

Time for another look at bitcoin. Remember that positive news about Paypal? Well not quite bullish in the end really, the way the initial bullish spike up was engulfed in selling was totally a natural response to that kind of news.

It was natural market forces and animal spirits, definately not manipulation by powerful entities who are able to seize bitcoins in large numbers.

Anyway that positive news ended up as prelude to a bit of a crash for whatever reasons. Heres a chart showing bitcoin versus US$ with weekly candles for a kind of big picture view.

Price dropped through most of my support lines but its quite nice to note the price didn’t drop below the previous all time high from the April 2013 bubble peak. Apparently huge numbers of bitcoin were sold on bitstamp during that fall in price (captitulation?) but were gobbled up voraciously by the market. Note I’ve included momentum indicator which looks like is showing a bullish divergance marked with some pretty pink lines. If you want another positive indicator usually when my blog posts are spaced weeks apart that is when my sentiment is at its lowest. Anyway price is rebounding very nicely at the moment and looks to be climbing back over lowest of my red trendlines.

Moving out to log price scale heres another view of the chart which I have posted previously.

Will it still come to pass that the price will hit the bottom of that channel? Well who knows, looking into tea leaves doesn’t seem to help. I haven’t ruled it out yet.

To finish up with heres another log chart a bit closer in with 1 day candles.

Bitcoin almost bounced in right area for trendline in green but what I’m interested in at the moment is resistance up above $450. I’m thinking a rally up to that level is quite possible, time will tell.

By the way thanks for great comments on my last post, all were much appeciated.

Heading down

In my last post I finished with a look at bitcoin price heading to hopefully bounce off the top of the long-ish term log channel. This post will start with that updated chart.

Without any ceremony price looks a bit like it is dropping or has already dropped through the top trendline which we’ve been above since the April 2013 bubble took off, except for very brief spike in silk road panic. Maybe its still too early to call but if bitcoin is going to bounce off from here it better start looking a bit more convincing and do it quick.

If bitcoin is falling through that trendline, or already has then that could mean price is not going to take off any time soon, but more likely continue lower possibly for quite some time yet to eventually meet the lower trendline somewhere near $200.

Not jumping to conclusions quite yet but for first time in quite a long time might be considering selling bitcoin and rebuying at lower price.

In the alt-coin space however quite a few of the more established alts have had good runs lately. For example peercoin is having very nice spike after what must have been agonising long drop for peer-coin holders.

Others enjoying spikes in price include Dogecoin, Feathercoin, Namecoin, Darkcoin and probably a few others, noteably not litecoin (yet?). As bitcoin mining becomes less profitable are miners shifting to other alt-coins instead ? Is it worth considering the idea of switching some bit-coin to established alt-coins instead of fiat ?

Unfortunately Cloakcoin is not on the list of alt-coins getting a boost lately, my ‘favorite’ pick of the anoncoins is in complete disarray now and looks quite likely to be heading down to zero. I would love the devs to proove me wrong and pull a rabbit out of a hat with the promised POSA anonymity technology, but that scenario is looking less and less likely every day. After failed audit and missed deadlines the developers have all but disappeared now and coin looks to be dying. Very sad really, looked so exciting based on what was promised, credentials of the developers in the end dissapointed.

With most of my favourite investments heading down, it is testing times for my core assumptions that gold, silver and bitcoin will offer protection through financial calamity which is coming. However I still hold strong. Peering below the booming stock market the global economy looks as precarious as ever from my viewpoint. The soothing tales of recovery will eventually be replaced with shocking news that no-one could have seen coming.

Lacklustre Bitcoin

Remember those days when bitcoin was heading up? Ah such a long time ago. Here we are still wallowing in low prices and looking to be heading lower.

Interestingly I’ve seen a few people from the precious metals sphere, once against bitcoin, now bitcoin believers who think bitcoin is being manipulated down along with gold and silver. Something I’ve hypothesised many times on here. You can’t allow competition! Imagine if say, powerful government forces took all the silk road and mt gox bitcoins, oh they already did. Some bitcoins were auctioned as we know, but the rest ? The theory goes that just like in precious metal whenever it looks like some enthusiasm may be coming into the market then quantities are drip fed and sold to suppress price rises and kill enthusisam.

If something like that is happening it has a limited shelf life, unless they find another way to sieze more bitcoin. Mind you last two bubble were fed by mtgox trading bots or something weren’t they.

Heres how the chart is looking just now as usual on Bitstamp in unbacked US paper dollars.

Note fancy new area fill! Can still see crisscrossing bullish and bearish trendlines forming wedges within wedges. Price is falling below my lowest green trendline though. Is it going to keep falling? A fall towards $400 doesn’t look too improbable really.

Heres a closer view showing price since last April low.

There is still evidence bullish forces are causing my green trendlines to provide some support however not enough to fuel a rally it seems.

To close I’ll show a quick update to my log view and ‘longish’ term channel with Bitstamp data. I can’t easily compare the full long term channel I used to look at which was using MtGox data not Bitstamp. Maybe thats a challenge for some other day to make a chart showing mtgox and bitstamp together to provide a fuller view of bitcoin history.

Base on this chart of all the Bitstamp data,  maybe the current bear move will meet some strong resistance where top trendline of that channel is, which is above $400. Will be interesting to keep an eye on that.

Silver log

Heres a silver update. Just like gold, silver is being smashed down, in fact even more so when you consider the gold silver ratio is near 70 at the moment. In a world of unchecked central bank money creation with trillions of dollars sloshing around the system unbelievably some force is continuing pressing silver price down, while the stock market rages to ever higher highs. Yay a recovery! The economy is fixed! Lets celebrate by getting into more debt, buy a holiday, buy a new car. Yay.

Oops sorry nearly got caught up in the keynsian utopian central planned collectivist dream their for a second. Silver, it is almost below cost of mining in fact.

I often talk about rock solid support, will it be broken this time as we approach what might be a quadruple bottom? Who knows in this bizzare world, but I think unlikely however I’ll be very eager to buy more if it does. How cheap can it possibly go in this environment ?

Heres a chart I wanted to share which shows price of silver since the bull market began on log price scale, versus US ‘paper’ dollars.

As you can see we are looking for support on a trendline which was last hit on the bottom of the crash in 2008. How will silver fare this time. I exect a nice bounce starting soon. Below that there is horizontal support which bears have failed to penetrate. Maybe the bullion banks will try a gargantuan naked sale of paper silver on the comex to try and get below this technical area. Good luck to them. I quite fancy some even cheaper silver just before the economy falls apart.

Testing time for Cloak

At end of my last Cloak post I reminded to buy the rumour sell the news. Well news was seemingly bad, or at least disappointing, theres been a big selloff based on the fact an anticipated code release has been delayed. Larger than anyting I expected unfortunatley, this sell off has in typical Cloak style been quite huge! The volatility in the tiny little alt-coin markets is quite breathtaking at times.

!Caution always advised in alt-coins!

Heres a look at latest chart from mintpal data, showing price in bitcoin with 4hour candles.

We are back below that 0.0004 level already, which I had thought would provide solid support. But what do I know? Price dipped below my lowest trendline too which I don’t like. I won’t be surprised to see further waves of selloff. Noteably the infamous BobSurplus user is back in the forum spreading doubt again, perhaps he’s after somemore cheap cloakcoin who can say.

I’m not sure how often I’ll post Cloak updates at the moment, still thinking about it. Timewise don’t have a lot to spare for extra posting at the moment and don’t want to feel responsible for losses people may incur based on my thoughts and opinions expressed here. Don’t be surprised if I don’t post very frequently on it, doesn’t mean I’ve lost interest.

Cloak marketing seem to be quite busy still and have come up with this quite snazzy video.

If you are Scottish I have one word for you … YES

Time for another look at Bitcoin

I’ve been removing some of the lines that were beginning to clutter up my chart a bit, and added a few new downtrending ones that seem to fit the chart quite well and I really should have been looking at before now.

So heres bitcoins priced in those lovely government, fiat, unbacked, green, banking, all-seeing eye dollars from the US of A, data from Bitstamp with 1 day candles and showing all of that huge price bubble we are so used to now.

As you can see the resistance which is stopping bitcoin rising with my nice green trendlines which I’ve been liberally sprinkling all over my charts for some time now is those pesky red trendlines originating from near the price peak at beginning of the year. Price at the moment looks to be finding good support at the lower green trendline, hopefully that will continue. Red lines are forming a wedge, within a wedge, if we break out this one will still be in a bigger one. Its bitcoin wars! Epic struggle of bears versus bulls … yawn, wake me up when its bullish again already.

When I saw that chart I got a feeling of deja vu in fact. Back in April last year I produced a similar chart describing the situation after the April 2013 bubble had collapsed and looked to be consolidating, Bitcoin wars,


Cloak has burst up through a key level of resistance at about 0.0004, reaching above 0.0005 in fact. That 0.0004 level will hopefully now provide quite solid support for next phase of consolidation, I’d have thought. (Not trying to tempt fate again). For good measure Cloak is also up through a trend line extending downward from the peak. Happy days.

Heres a look at the damage using mintpal data on log scale of Cloak priced in Bitcoin, courtesy of BitcoinWisdom website.

Aside from the fact that cloak looked incredibly oversold after that pump n dump crash rumours abound that the developers are close to releasing something significant. If rumours turn out to be true I’d be a little cautious. how does it go, buy rumour sell news or something.

Anyway nice to see recovery looking strong for now.

Cloak – Resistance at 0.0004

Heres a quick look at Cloakcoin vs Bitcoin, using mintpal data and 4 hour candles with log price scale

This chart is produced using BitcoinWisdom which allows me to draw a few lines in the sand which you can see here. At the bottom is what looks like a line of support, I have two similar horizontal lines at about 0.0004 which is the horizontal resistance mentioned in the title of this post. Price has reached there about three times so far, I’m expecting it should finally manage to break up above that eventually (unless there happens to be some unforseen setbacks in the development of the Cloak ‘ecosystem’). I didn’t show a long enough timescale on this chart but those lines at 0.0004 previously used to be support. I also have two trendlines sloping down of resistance, one of which has already been broken and another which may come into play later.

It should be fairly self explanitory but looks like price may be wedged below 0.0004 for a little while yet, but supported by the lower trendline. If that lower trendline fails as support I’ll be getting a bit nervous. Until then, happy days.