Bear versus Bull epic battle equal sideways consolidation ?

Heres an update to the bearish fork I’ve been looking at in my recent posts.

The price is in a constant battle against a bearish trend which can be seen by the resistance at the slope of the trendlines. So the price will go lower right? Thats been my thesis anyway. But its a bit problematic to that bearish thesis, that the price also keeps breaking up.

Maybe you remember the fork I was looking at when the price was constantly rampaging higher? Heres an update to an older bullish fork in which I’ve added some new lower trendlines.

Hmm … it looks like support is being found on these bullish trend lines too

What to do? I have an awful feeling I might once again have lost out by not obeying my ‘just buy and hold’ wisdom… I don’t know.. I guess it could still be heading lower ? Hope you didn’t come here looking for answers.

Anyway heres what it looks like with both forks superimposed.

That looks like price forging a sideways path through two equal opposing forces.


Edit: Hopefully it won’t turn out like this, from Ghostbusters ..

Dr. Egon Spengler: Don’t cross the streams.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Why?

Dr. Egon Spengler: It would be bad.

Dr. Peter Venkman: I’m fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean, “bad”?

Dr. Egon Spengler: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.

Dr Ray Stantz: Total protonic reversal.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Right. That’s bad. Okay. All right. Important safety tip. Thanks, Egon.

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8 thoughts on “Bear versus Bull epic battle equal sideways consolidation ?

  1. I waited 2 days for your next post and you had no clear answers?? LOL. But seriously, thanks for trying to make sense of it all. Hey, how about putting up a chart with your famous long term channel? It would be interesting to see where we currently stand relative to that.

  2. No disrespect intended, BUT, I’m a bit disappointed that your chart analysis is always dependent on a linear framework. It is said there are no straight lines in the universe. And, I’d argue (along with the Mayans) that time is curved as well. So why would markets be any different? Are you making trade-decisions from these linear channels? I mean, just from observing the last couple months, whenever you have some that look like a good ‘fit’, it seems ripe in time to draw a new one. Then it too breaks and we revert back to the older, bigger picture stuff. Using a linear tool to extrapolate price over a longer and longer time frame is a terribly flawed approach (especially on a non-log scale), IMO, since you are always only working with a snapshot, a tangent on something that is experiencing varying degrees of growth/contraction, acceleration/deceleration, appreciation/discounting, etc etc simultaneously, which in all their combinations give you something much more “natural” than linear, especially over time. From your comments, it seems your buys/sells are intuitive or based on some other kind of analysis anyway, perhaps more subjective. Nothing wrong with that — I guess I’m curious whether you are just here to put up a couple charts while you trade your gut and reflect a little on the news or maybe are trying to stick your neck out a little. Afterall, BTC truly is a neat concept, but isn’t its price ultimately the reason we’re here?

    • If you read my about page I lay it out pretty clearly. I recommend buy and hold, bitcoins, gold and silver. I’m not a professional trader, and I get no profit from my thoughts on this blog which are to try and have fun trading bitcoins..

      If you are speaking out of frustration being bearish bitcoins just now when they are not following the bearish script, then I’m with you there unfortunately. If I took my own advice to buy and hold I’d be doing much better.

      • Thanks for clarifying. I’m not frustrated with the price movement at all. I only became aware of BTC back in May this year and decided to invest a little money to purchase a core position and trade around it to accumulate more over time. I daytrade futures fulltime so why not apply my method. I managed to increase my holdings about 40% from May til Sept — from basis of $108, took some off at ~$140, but then rebought after the massive Silk Road reversal. Took some off at ~$250, looking for a rebuy in 160s, but that never came. The energy in the pattern obviously since then has not been kind to trading, especially small holdings. I’ve been trading & studying charts for 8 years and have never witnessed anything with this much power (plus not seeing major weakness even after the run-ups). Realizing this, I bought the first pull-back from 900 at 618 and will be looking for signs of weakness at highs over the next few weeks to just take-out my initial investment by converting into silver, and then keep the rest for holding/trading. (leaning toward agoracommodities.com for the BTC–>silver; if you know of other good sites please share.) My cycle work is pointing to a significant inflection/phase change between next week and the middle of Jan. I think it’s good to remember how easily the train could get temporarily, even permanently de-railed by some politico intervention but that would require an amount of coordination that seems to not exist worldwide these days — so I remain bullish (especially with sentiment being negative at these prices) so long as the story continues to evolve favorably. Poor fools who have actually lost money trying to trade this beast. Selling at a loss to ‘preserve capital’ or ‘sidestep the downdraft’ or whatever is just stupid considering one should never commit dollars to BTC they can’t afford to lose. And why be in it at all if you don’t see the long term optimum trajectory as mega-bullish? So all price declines should be bought until it is either a) made illegal, b) fails internally, or c) gets chased down by competition/becomes obsolete. a & b sucks to wake up and see it at $0 but at least with c you’ll probably get to smell the coffee first.

    • CR It Sounds like you’re onto it, if you feel inclined to leave tips on here they will be well received.

      My method of analysis is based on what they do at Coghlan Capital if you (or anyone that reads this) is interested but I’m sure I don’t do it justice, those guys are very professional. They don’t cover bitcoins but mainly focus on forex and metals. http://cod.coghlancapital.com/

      I guess I’ve done alright with bitcoins up until now by buying in early and holding adding little bits here and there. Selling bitcoins almost always ends up being a bad idea in my experience so far. Although I’ve recently cashed in a fairly decent stack of bitcoins to convert to physical precious metals.

      My biggest concern with bitcoins at the moment is the scalability of the blockchain. Its already getting pretty huge. If it gets so big it needs to be centralised I’ll be very concerned.

      I like bitcoins because of the promise of breaking free of debt based money which steals our wealth from under our noses. But I don’t know if it is really the answer. Precious metals might be the real answer.

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