Crypto versus Precious Metal

In bitcoin I wouldn’t say the previous all time high has been smashed yet, but it has been beaten on every major exchange as far as I know. With bitcoin at about $1230 as I write, it hasn’t yet beaten the MtGox high point which was $1242 I think. But I guess it is a new all time high in US dollars now. Another target I’m looking for is bitcoin to be worth more than £1000 (British pounds).

More exciting for me though is that bitcoin looks poised to overtake the spot price of 1 ounce of gold. Here’s a pretty looking chart of Bitstamp, not on log scale for a change.

Gold has kept a lid on bitcoin up until now but it looks very likely that the time is coming for 1 bitcoin to be more valuable than 1 ounce of gold.

Compared to 2013 when bitcoin spiked up to these heady heights above $1000 this time it feels like its only getting started, to me at least. But I am more often than not bullish.

Now to Dash – My other favourite crypto. What can I say, Dash is doing a moonshot. I posted recently how it overtook 1 ounce of silver in price, now it has doubled silver! Heres a chart of that amazing rise.

For many the rise of Dash is a complete shock, for me I’m surprised its taken this long. But it is now up to 3rd biggest marketcap in crypto after overtaking Etherium Classic, Monero, Litecoin and Ripple. Now only Etherium and Bitcoin are above it.

With a steep rise like this I’d be very cautious trading Dash at the moment for obvious reasons.

When the all time high is smashed

Here is what bitcoin looked like at one time at the start of 2013. Bitcoin all time high was around 32$ a bubble peak and after a huge correction the price had recovered enough to get close to that old bubble top.

Shortly after that it looked like this.

The all time high was smashed! The old all time high now looking like a shrivelled little bump.

Bitcoin found itself in a very similar formation not long after but at a much higher price level, this time the all time high was at about $260. Bitcoin at the time had recovered from the Silk Road Seizure and was once again close to an all time high.

Shortly after that it looked like this.

Again bitcoin proved the doubters wrong and the all time high was smashed!

Heres todays chart, once again the old all time high dominates but somehow bitcoin has recovered to challenge that old high

Who knows what happens next ??

Dash passes Silver

Congratulations Dash

1 dash is worth more than spot price of 1 ounce fine silver.

Heres Dash versus US$ with Silver also on same chart (grey line near top)

I realise to many this may seem arbitrary, why compare to one ounce of silver at all? But for me at least this is a noteworthy milestone.

Next race is for bitcoin to overtake 1 ounce of gold.

Bitcoin musings

Heres a bitcoin chart on 1 day log price scale from Bitstamp

Anyone familiar with my blog will know that I like to look at longer timescales. For this reason my charts don’t tend to change very often. The bullish fork which I have followed for a long time now is still there, still seems valid and is still the main focus of my chart. In fact even though bitcoin has had a peak near all time highs and a crash caused by the chinese banker interference it hasn’t ventured near the bottom or the top of that fork so far.

However the last couple of months have ‘painted’ what I call a mini bubble. This is like a small fractal version of a real full scale bitcoin bubble (which leaves the previous all time high looking like a tiny ripple). Closer view here

The reason I used the word painted to describe this mini bubble is because it seems like PBOC (peoples bank of china) have deliberately intervened in the bitcoin market at least twice ‘to prevent money laundering’ and ‘avoidance of capital controls’ or some such rubbish at the opportune moments possibly in which to make the chart look like that, ie it was painted.

One could also argue that the only reason they could successfully do that was because the market was in fact overheating and due a correction anyway.

The rising price for the first peak was halted by Chinese officials inspecting exchanges. It is interesting they picked that price in which to do so though. I think they may have timed it to try and have maximum negative effect on bitcoin price. In the aftermath of that they also banned the biggest exchanges from permitting margin trading and enforced trading fees. Interestingly this seems to have had the side effect of making people see that the fantastic Chinese volume was a lot of hot air and helping realise that China is perhaps not quite the force we had thought.

The second time rising price was halted by PBOC in the last few days, was when they enforced Anti Money Laundering regulations on same exchanges. This has painted the top of the dead cat bounce. The knock on effect somehow, for some reason, because erm… there is a reason, wait … bitcoin withdrawls have been halted for a month! What was the reason again? Lol, who knows? Spider senses are tingling here. Why does this need bitcoin withdrawals halted? Who knows? It could easily be that Chinese exchanges are in fact in some deep doo doo and have lost peoples bitcoins. Like Gox. For the millionth time. DON’T STORE YOUR BITCOIN ON AN EXCHANGE

Anyway I’m running out of time to keep writing, as I have things to do. In closing with a very short condensed version I still think bitcoin has high likelihood of another epic bubble in not too far away future. Perhaps as discussed in my last bitcoin post after a bearish handle of a cup with handle formation, or maybe it won’t even wait for that handle. I view it personally as too risky to sell and hope to buy cheaper although that may be the right strategy for some. Also, as always remember, it is a risky investment, trade accordingly. Keep your bitcoin safe.

Dash versus Silver

For a change from bitcoin heres a look at my other favourite cryto, Dash. Without getting all the attention bitcoin does, Dash is quietly doing well too and at the moment trading on Poloniex for about 17US $ for 1 Dash.

Blue line at the top is spot price of 1 ounce silver in US$, looks like Dash might be about to achieve a milestone bitcoin already took some time ago and overtake silver.

As the dust settles

Even though I don’t think the dust has quite settled yet, what the heck heres some commenting anyway.

So as we’ve seen, in a wave of euphoria bitcoin reached (and slightly surpassed) old highs (in US$) depending on what exchange you look at, and for the first (or is it second) time reached the value of an ounce of gold. Anyway for a time bitcoin was shooting up, like it sometimes does.

Basically it was what I call a mini bubble, not a full on bubble, which is when the previous all time high is left looking like a tiny bump on linear charts, but still a bubble of sorts. Now it has been pricked by the Chinese gov deciding to inspect the exchanges and price is crashing down.

I guess the question everyone is wondering is: Was that a top or just a big correction on to new highs?

Anyway, heres a chart.

As is my habit I’m using Bitstamp data, whether that is most valid or not is another question. However, this chart shows the latest bull trend using 1 day candles, ranging from prices around $200 at the start to above $1000. As I write just above $800.

So you can see the rising pitchfork which I’ve included on my charts for quite a while, the price is still within the pitchfork (but at the rate its falling will it end up below it?) There have been two, what I call mini-bubbles so far, with this one being the third. I guess the bullish scenario (which i think slightly less likely) is that we stay in the fork, maybe bouncing off the bottom a few times.

What makes me uneasy was that the last spike fell below the top of the fork whereas previous ones broke above for short time(s). I take this as a sign to watch out if you are bullish, this bull move was a bit too weak. Not obvious on linear price scale.

No doubt in oversold conditions like this the price will rise again but will it be a real continuation of the euphoria or a bull trap on the way to lower prices below the fork? And a chance to sell and buy back cheaper later.

Having said that previous two mini bubbles did manage to complete their corrections and stay within the rising fork so its not unheard of.

In a longer term view bitcoin could fall below that fork. (No log fork rising up can last too long) but still be painting the handle of a gigantic cup and handle. (I know I’m not the first to observe this but it is a valid idea). But heres my visualisation of it in a very rough sketch.

I personally am not trading, more of a long term holder but if I was I’m guessing this year could play out as another accumulation zone with price chopping up and down in a range around where we are now or maybe lower yet. I’d like to be a bit more bullish on bitcoin, at least in the short term, but I don’t think there is a quick recovery to euphoria from the recent drops and maybe some gut wrenching drops yet to come. Maybe by end of the year bitcoin will be gathering steam again.

As always these views are entirely my own, good luck.

 

 

Bitcoin back above 1000

With bitcoin back above $1000 and I’m checking charts daily again, almost like the good old days. I just posted this chart in bitcoin talk on a thread entitled ‘is  2017 the new 2013?’ and thought I might as well post it here too.

On a log scale you can see the size of two separate bubble moves were similar in 2013 in terms of percentage gains.

If that is to repeat with only one such move, we will see bitcoin spike to around $10,000

:-0 :-0 :-0

Remember this is not trading advice. Don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.

Fake news

Since I’m not listed on PropOrNot (actually I havent checked but safely assume I’m not lol) I thought it might be quite cool to spread some fake news while I remain under the radar. Of course in the Orwellian world we live in Ignorance is truth, War is peace and something else is something opposite. In this case fake news is spreading truth and mainstream news is  fake. This can get confusing when mainstream accuses alt media of being fake by using fake methods itself.

Pizza gate. You must have heard of it. That is true. Moon landings in the 1960’s fake. World trade centre collapse due to hijacked plane crash,  fake. Russians hacked the US election. Fake!

I often talk about how the currency war is not about China versus USA or whatever they claim. It is only about the elites versus us. Well the same is true of the war against fake news, which is really an excuse for censorship and a war against free speech. If I want to accuse the Queen of being a Lizard I will. (actually I’m on the fence still with that one)

On with a chart or two.

Bitcoin is in a lovely looking bull trend. The supply recently halved. Countries such as Venezuala and India are going full retard against cash. What is not to like about bitcoin? Its all so predictable and all so surprising unless you actually pay some attention.

I like that bitcoin has recently edged past the June highs.  Whats to say? Not much. Stay safe. The globalist, pedophile, satanists are still controlling most of it but maybe not bitcoin yet

Gold and Silver Trumped

But not bitcoin!

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For a long time now, along with many others, I’ve concluded that the spot price of gold (and silver) is heavily suppressed, especially at strategic times. Evidently this is to prevent a ‘run’ to precious metals. Precious metals are finite in the earth and historically used as money, there is no alchemy capable of manufacturing gold from other elements. Through history gold as money was safe from inflation. Limited supply, limited by nature. A run would mean rising prices.

On the converse side stock markets are propped up in the exact same but opposite way. Through this means, investors are diverted in the direction ‘they’ want which at this time is towards the stock market. I could go into endless detail but you get the picture I’m sure. Gold and Silver bad, stock market good, (because stock market up means the economy is good). Backed up by the media most people believe this mantra. They seem not to notice the inevitable corruptible nature of fiat money. Maybe this will change with the advent of negative interest rates and the banning of cash. Or not?

Who cares? Not many people care which is why it works. But I care.

On the side of people who do care, just about everyone has been wrongfooted by the Trump victory. Gold was supposed to go up. Trump is anti establishment. Trump the populist. Trump is going to drain the swamp. But lets step back a moment. The fact is that gold and silver are down, below critical technical levels and looking horrible. What does this tell us? It tells us the people in charge are still in charge in a very clear and unambiguous way. Forget Brexit and Trump. So how do you un-elect central bankers? Where is the referendum to get rid of those fuckers? Where is the conversation?

There is another form of money which like gold also has a limited supply. Bitcoin! Bitcoin has not read the central banker script. I find the price action during the US election very interesting. Initially gold, silver and bitcoin spiked when it was apparent Trump had won the election. In my view this was the free market reaction which managed to briefly show its face with all these assets doing what they should. What followed was gold, silver and bitcoin being stomped on by a massive controlling big boot.

In the case of gold and silver this has been amazingly effective (so far), in the case of bitcoin not so much. Bitcoin did go down but now is pushing up again, technical levels so far intact. I’m sure Satoshi would approve very much. Why would this be? Why is bitcoin resilient to the price suppression? My long held suspicions are that bitcoin is still far too new for them to know how to suppress it. The tools are not in place, the derivatives and ETFs and the futures markets are not there or not mature enough. Maybe the inherent nature of bitcoin is also a factor, the blockchain is visible, precious metals holdings are obscure. Does fort knox hold the gold thats claimed?

So anyway, looks like I might be tempted to resurrect this blog. I’ll see how it goes.

Heres some charts.

Gold looks horrible on 1week chart because it fell under my rising channel and failed to break up from long term resistance.

Similar with silver, its now under the rising fork I have been watching for some time.

Bitcoin, so far holding up quite well.

Appendix – US Election Day

In what was initially a post of its own, I’ve decided to move it here where I think it belongs.

In the post above I wrote:

“I find the price action during the US election very interesting. Initially gold, silver and bitcoin spiked when it was apparent Trump had won the election. In my view this was the free market reaction which managed to briefly show its face with all these assets doing what they should. What followed was gold, silver and bitcoin being stomped on by a massive controlling big boot.

In the case of gold and silver this has been amazingly effective (so far), in the case of bitcoin not so much. Bitcoin did go down but now is pushing up again …”

I thought it might be nice to expand on that and have a look at what I described on the following 1hour charts.

Starting with gold;

You clearly see the initial market reaction, which was a very sudden large spike upwards which actually threatened to break through an important bearish trendline. But then gold fell because… Reasons.

Next silver;

In silver the spike up was not so pronounced and there was a delay but then silver too fell because… Reasons.

Finally bitcoin;

Bitcoin also spiked up on the news which is interesting in itself that bitcoin does indeed function similar to gold. Then bitcoin fell too because… Rea
In this same post asons. But bitcoin hasn’t continued down instead reversing and resuming its bullish trend which I doubt is what was wanted.

Out of the three charts the best example is seen in the gold chart in which the moves were much larger than the scale of the surrounding noise (or volatility). But even so it is interesting that the same pattern can be seen in all three within the noise.

As I elaborated in my other post I suspect that bitcoin is a little bit harder to suppress than gold and silver. If they want bitcoin to fall they actually have to sell huge volumes of actual bitcoin across many exchanges, unlike in gold where they can sell huge volumes of paper representations of gold on the comex for example.