As the dust settles

Even though I don’t think the dust has quite settled yet, what the heck heres some commenting anyway.

So as we’ve seen, in a wave of euphoria bitcoin reached (and slightly surpassed) old highs (in US$) depending on what exchange you look at, and for the first (or is it second) time reached the value of an ounce of gold. Anyway for a time bitcoin was shooting up, like it sometimes does.

Basically it was what I call a mini bubble, not a full on bubble, which is when the previous all time high is left looking like a tiny bump on linear charts, but still a bubble of sorts. Now it has been pricked by the Chinese gov deciding to inspect the exchanges and price is crashing down.

I guess the question everyone is wondering is: Was that a top or just a big correction on to new highs?

Anyway, heres a chart.

As is my habit I’m using Bitstamp data, whether that is most valid or not is another question. However, this chart shows the latest bull trend using 1 day candles, ranging from prices around $200 at the start to above $1000. As I write just above $800.

So you can see the rising pitchfork which I’ve included on my charts for quite a while, the price is still within the pitchfork (but at the rate its falling will it end up below it?) There have been two, what I call mini-bubbles so far, with this one being the third. I guess the bullish scenario (which i think slightly less likely) is that we stay in the fork, maybe bouncing off the bottom a few times.

What makes me uneasy was that the last spike fell below the top of the fork whereas previous ones broke above for short time(s). I take this as a sign to watch out if you are bullish, this bull move was a bit too weak. Not obvious on linear price scale.

No doubt in oversold conditions like this the price will rise again but will it be a real continuation of the euphoria or a bull trap on the way to lower prices below the fork? And a chance to sell and buy back cheaper later.

Having said that previous two mini bubbles did manage to complete their corrections and stay within the rising fork so its not unheard of.

In a longer term view bitcoin could fall below that fork. (No log fork rising up can last too long) but still be painting the handle of a gigantic cup and handle. (I know I’m not the first to observe this but it is a valid idea). But heres my visualisation of it in a very rough sketch.

I personally am not trading, more of a long term holder but if I was I’m guessing this year could play out as another accumulation zone with price chopping up and down in a range around where we are now or maybe lower yet. I’d like to be a bit more bullish on bitcoin, at least in the short term, but I don’t think there is a quick recovery to euphoria from the recent drops and maybe some gut wrenching drops yet to come. Maybe by end of the year bitcoin will be gathering steam again.

On another note Britain continues to align even closer to Oceana (USA) and become Airstrip 1, whereas the EU will not disintigrate but instead join Russia to form the Eurasion superpower. China will grab territories around it and become EastAsia I read it in 1984 which was written before 1984 but its coming true now. Total surveillance too. Wish I wasn’t joking. I’ve seen signs and the Orwellian furture is where we are being herded. Right now we have walked through the stable door and still don’t realise we need to turn around and run back out before it slams shut.

As always these views are entirely my own, good luck fellow humans

 

 

Bitcoin back above 1000

With bitcoin back above $1000 and I’m checking charts daily again, almost like the good old days. I just posted this chart in bitcoin talk on a thread entitled ‘is  2017 the new 2013?’ and thought I might as well post it here too.

On a log scale you can see the size of two separate bubble moves were similar in 2013 in terms of percentage gains.

If that is to repeat with only one such move, we will see bitcoin spike to around $10,000

:-0 :-0 :-0

Remember this is not trading advice. Don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.

Fake news

Since I’m not listed on PropOrNot (actually I havent checked but safely assume I’m not lol) I thought it might be quite cool to spread some fake news while I remain under the radar. Of course in the Orwellian world we live in Ignorance is truth, War is peace and something else is something opposite. In this case fake news is spreading truth and mainstream news is  fake. This can get confusing when mainstream accuses alt media of being fake by using fake methods itself.

Pizza gate. You must have heard of it. That is true. Moon landings in the 1960’s fake. World trade centre collapse due to hijacked plane crash,  fake. Russians hacked the US election. Fake!

I often talk about how the currency war is not about China versus USA or whatever they claim. It is only about the elites versus us. Well the same is true of the war against fake news, which is really an excuse for censorship and a war against free speech. If I want to accuse the Queen of being a Lizard I will. (actually I’m on the fence still with that one)

On with a chart or two.

Bitcoin is in a lovely looking bull trend. The supply recently halved. Countries such as Venezuala and India are going full retard against cash. What is not to like about bitcoin? Its all so predictable and all so surprising unless you actually pay some attention.

I like that bitcoin has recently edged past the June highs.  Whats to say? Not much. Stay safe. The globalist, pedophile, satanists are still controlling most of it but maybe not bitcoin yet

Gold and Silver Trumped

But not bitcoin!

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For a long time now, along with many others, I’ve concluded that the spot price of gold (and silver) is heavily suppressed, especially at strategic times. Evidently this is to prevent a ‘run’ to precious metals. Precious metals are finite in the earth and historically used as money, there is no alchemy capable of manufacturing gold from other elements. Through history gold as money was safe from inflation. Limited supply, limited by nature. A run would mean rising prices.

On the converse side stock markets are propped up in the exact same but opposite way. Through this means, investors are diverted in the direction ‘they’ want which at this time is towards the stock market. I could go into endless detail but you get the picture I’m sure. Gold and Silver bad, stock market good, (because stock market up means the economy is good). Backed up by the media most people believe this mantra. They seem not to notice the inevitable corruptible nature of fiat money. Maybe this will change with the advent of negative interest rates and the banning of cash. Or not?

Who cares? Not many people care which is why it works. But I care.

On the side of people who do care, just about everyone has been wrongfooted by the Trump victory. Gold was supposed to go up. Trump is anti establishment. Trump the populist. Trump is going to drain the swamp. But lets step back a moment. The fact is that gold and silver are down, below critical technical levels and looking horrible. What does this tell us? It tells us the people in charge are still in charge in a very clear and unambiguous way. Forget Brexit and Trump. So how do you un-elect central bankers? Where is the referendum to get rid of those fuckers? Where is the conversation?

There is another form of money which like gold also has a limited supply. Bitcoin! Bitcoin has not read the central banker script. I find the price action during the US election very interesting. Initially gold, silver and bitcoin spiked when it was apparent Trump had won the election. In my view this was the free market reaction which managed to briefly show its face with all these assets doing what they should. What followed was gold, silver and bitcoin being stomped on by a massive controlling big boot.

In the case of gold and silver this has been amazingly effective (so far), in the case of bitcoin not so much. Bitcoin did go down but now is pushing up again, technical levels so far intact. I’m sure Satoshi would approve very much. Why would this be? Why is bitcoin resilient to the price suppression? My long held suspicions are that bitcoin is still far too new for them to know how to suppress it. The tools are not in place, the derivatives and ETFs and the futures markets are not there or not mature enough. Maybe the inherent nature of bitcoin is also a factor, the blockchain is visible, precious metals holdings are obscure. Does fort knox hold the gold thats claimed?

So anyway, looks like I might be tempted to resurrect this blog. I’ll see how it goes.

Heres some charts.

Gold looks horrible on 1week chart because it fell under my rising channel and failed to break up from long term resistance.

Similar with silver, its now under the rising fork I have been watching for some time.

Bitcoin, so far holding up quite well.

Appendix – US Election Day

In what was initially a post of its own, I’ve decided to move it here where I think it belongs.

In the post above I wrote:

“I find the price action during the US election very interesting. Initially gold, silver and bitcoin spiked when it was apparent Trump had won the election. In my view this was the free market reaction which managed to briefly show its face with all these assets doing what they should. What followed was gold, silver and bitcoin being stomped on by a massive controlling big boot.

In the case of gold and silver this has been amazingly effective (so far), in the case of bitcoin not so much. Bitcoin did go down but now is pushing up again …”

I thought it might be nice to expand on that and have a look at what I described on the following 1hour charts.

Starting with gold;

You clearly see the initial market reaction, which was a very sudden large spike upwards which actually threatened to break through an important bearish trendline. But then gold fell because… Reasons.

Next silver;

In silver the spike up was not so pronounced and there was a delay but then silver too fell because… Reasons.

Finally bitcoin;

Bitcoin also spiked up on the news which is interesting in itself that bitcoin does indeed function similar to gold. Then bitcoin fell too because… Rea
In this same post asons. But bitcoin hasn’t continued down instead reversing and resuming its bullish trend which I doubt is what was wanted.

Out of the three charts the best example is seen in the gold chart in which the moves were much larger than the scale of the surrounding noise (or volatility). But even so it is interesting that the same pattern can be seen in all three within the noise.

As I elaborated in my other post I suspect that bitcoin is a little bit harder to suppress than gold and silver. If they want bitcoin to fall they actually have to sell huge volumes of actual bitcoin across many exchanges, unlike in gold where they can sell huge volumes of paper representations of gold on the comex for example.

Signing out

This is my last post on my afbitcoins blog. Its been a fun rollercoaster ride since my blog began but I think its just about ran its course and I so I now leave the arena.

It can be difficult at times posting your trading opinions in a public website. However in the last year I think I have made mostly good calls, I correctly identified the bottom of the last bubble correction and end of the bear trend. I picked the top in the last litecoin bubble. I picked the right time to accumulate more bitcoin when price wallowed between $200 and $300.

There have been mistakes too over the course of this blog. The two most painful ones for me to recall being investing in Cloak and getting back into bull mode too early when bitcoin was still due another year of decline. However I learned good lessons to take with me from these expriences.

Overall it has been profitable for me and I hope for readers of this blog too.

Big thanks to all those that stopped by to read my blog and share comments and help make this blog what it was.

Down wave

With bitcoin failing to retest the midline of the fork, and down 6% as I write (edit 7%) (edit 8%), I decided to take a look how this is fitting in with my bullish fork on bitcoin log chart.

So heres the chart as bitcoin continues to fall ..

As you can see we fell through another support level and now heading down towards the next one below. It looks like bitcoin might test the area around the bottom of this fork. In coming days if we see further falls its easy to imagine price getting down to about $400.

This paints a picture of a dead cat bounce from the initial $500 spike however I dont think this is really a dead cat but will end up looking like a bear trap with price rebounding and continuing bullish moves. In my opinion we are just too near the halving for a real bear trend to develop.

In fact if you look back at charts in which I recently posted with arrows projecting future price moves I have included a kind of dead cat bounce on most of them. This move is so far playing out roughly how I have been expecting.

If you are brave (and know what you are doing) there is possibility of shorting or selling in the short term. Bitcoin could go lower than $400 even. Just as possible it can rebound from this drop. Volitility is hard to trade. Personally Im trying not to fixate on this short term noise.

Merry Christmas

Silver vs Bitcoin

A long time ago I wrote a post Fight!!!! Silver versus bitcoins. It was way back when 1 ounce of fine silver had recently been overtaken in value by 1 bitcoin. At the time bitcoin had stormed past silver’s all time high aswell.

Heres a chart from that old post for the sake of nostalgia; (It was quite painstaking to create that chart lots of manual scaling and layering of images but I managed to make it pretty accurate.)

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So I wonder where are we today in that epic fight of bitcoin versus silver? A lot of time has elapsed. Things have changed. It pains me to write this because I openly admit I really really like silver. The feeling of holding an ounce of silver in your hands. The history of silver, as money. The purity of silver, everything about it, and it looks fantastic too.

But it just cannot be denied silver is getting trounced!

Heres a similar chart, up to date (and much easier to produce now that I have TradingView website).

The line way down at the bottom which is gently declining is silver, while that wild mountainous jagged layout is the familiar bitcoin chart. The rectangle shows rough area covered by the first chart at top of post.

As I write 1 bitcoin is valued 33 times more than 1 ounce spot price of silver. That is after a huge 2 year decline in bitcoin, although admittedly bitcoin is up after those lows.

Heres another way to look at the fight of silver versus bitcoin. This chart is showing the ratio of bitcoin / silver. I was intrigued by this chart earlier this evening. I like this view because it cuts fiat out of the chart completely. Note I’m using a log price scale here.

As you can see I’ve drawn a long term bull channel (bull for bitcoin not silver) and a shorter term bear channel is also included during bitcoins recent bubble collapse. The bit that intrigues me the most is the lowest bull trendline which was very well defined a few years ago and only recently hit again during bitcoins lows. But look how well defined that trendline is. Almost makes me wonder if I should switch to using silver as my scale of value instead of US$. Actually a feeling I get when looking at gold ratio too.

Anyway I am invested in silver and still a believer in its monetary properties. But I have to say most of my attention is focused on crypto and I think that is the way the tide is turning in general too.

Further validation of the bull fork

In my previous post I speculated that we were due a correction which turned out in fact did happen, with price now down to about $416 as I write. However I don’t get the opportunity to be too smug about this as my prediction had the run ending at about $450 where the horizontal resistance lies when in fact it shot a good way higher first.

Heres how it looks on Bitstamp, log price scale 4 hour candles. Notice where the run spiked up to.

This chart is once again showing the same bull fork I’ve mentioned in other recent posts. Here the spike touched just about bang on the mid line of the fork before the steep correction began. If any further evidence was needed, this is the bull trend plainly visible. With this fork showing the slope of the trend. The way bitcoin is going I won’t be surprised to see price break up into the top half of this fork before long. I bet the bankers wish they could suppress bitcoin the way they do gold. (edit: as a caveat to that I’m not saying it will break up straight away, there may be a bearish period to endure first in which this last spike begins to look like a dead cat bounce and giving false hope to bears)

For a bit more context heres another look at the same fork zoomed out a little bit on 1 day chart so I can show the points how the fork is defined.

I’m guessing there’ll now be a period of consolidation but to me the bull trend seems pretty clear on longer timescales.

Hodl or trade with caution

I have a sneaky feeling bitcoin’s current rise is too much too soon and will soon correct. I could be wrong so trade with caution. But this might be near top of this move. Anyway heres my prediction.

Setting aside the 4 hour charts and the bull fork for a while. My larger picture is still same as I posted in my recent Bitcoin Primed post but arrows projecting into the future have moved a little.

Heres bitstamp with 1 week candles and log price scale

Bitcoin is nearing a level of potential horizontal resistance. Looking at the rhythm of other peaks and dips I can imagine its time for a bit of a dip. This is just my suspicions not really ‘analysis’. The dip will look a bit like a dead cat bounce from the recent mini bubble up to $500.

Volume seems lower at the moment maybe signifying a bit of wariness. If this does correct down to the bottom of the bull channel that will be quite a large drop somewhere near $350 I’d estimate.

Safest bet is to hodl if you are already in. Otherwise maybe consider selling (or shorting) if it appears to bounce down from that horizontal line. Word of caution when bitcoin is in full on bull mode sometimes the corrections are flat but I’m not sure we are there yet.

If bitcoin pushes through that line of horizontal resistance instead of correcting down then we may quickly push up towards $600 just falling a little short as panic buying sets in. This scenario is also possible but in my view maybe a bit less likely.