Will bitcoin cross the line ?
If bitcoin price rise is connected to Greek Default it kind of looks like bitcoin is … a safe haven. Like gold only less suppressed and manipulated. Therefore better?
Despite scary stories about Greek default, the fact is a Greek default is not so scary anymore because the ECB, European Central Bank is now allowed to print Euros by the trillion. Great news if you like being part of a stable (but rapidly devaluing euro).
With Euro, GBP, Jap yen and US$ all printing by the trillions. Gold has erm gone down a bit!!! Lol what? !
Life inside the matrix.
In other news New World Order protagonist George Soros is outed being the puppet master behind Ukraine uprising. I think its time George goes away. Go away George.
Anyway heres the chart from BTC-E, on log scale with 1d candles.
Great news that recent price rise has put bitcoin above the red dashed line of resistance which has held bitcoin all 2015 so far.. As extra bonus, also bitcoin is also up back above lower purple line of my bull channel. If you want even more bullish technicals the weekly SAR has flipped to bullish now too as noted by Hyena in the forums.
Interesting also to note where that spike up ended, right on line which used to provide support. Support turned to resistance. Which I interpret bullishly as further evidence the bullish slope is still working and intact.
The real battle still to come is the upper red line which will most likely provide stout resistance, and as noted by James in comments will quite possibly form a wedge constraining price. If (or in fact when) bitcoin gets above that rapidly falling upper red line I call that the end of the bear trend. Until then we are still in the accumulation zone.
disclaimer: blah blah.
Heres a zoomed out version of same chart to add more perspective.
Bitcoin has fallen (some might even say crashed) down below my “End of the Bear Trend” channel .. So is it now the end for the “end of the bear trend” ? Are prices doomed to continue falling as bitcoin falls to a spectacular demise?
First heres the damage on btc-e log price scale.
As shown bitcoin is now below the bullish channel I have been following. However not unsurprisingly my next move is simply to look for the next lower parallel following same slope up., perhaps where I have added a new dashed trendline.
Despite numerous threads in the bitcoin talks forums describing this drop as a crash, really it is not a crash (not yet at least). In fact viewed objectively it looks like the market is not up or down but rather horizontal, you might call this a boring phase. Bullish and bearish impulses are cancelling each other resulting in … a stable price. (Dont get too excited about stable price yet I consider the bitcoin market is still tiny, either upwards (or downwards) big moves will occur soon enough.
What is not helping matters is the debate (feud?) regarding blocksize. It appears that uncertainty could be hindering things. Bitcoin opinion is split on wether to increase the block size now before blocks start being too small to cope with increasing demand or to continue as we are and hope miners muddle through, perhaps using increasing fees as a way to try and prioritese transactions. This split could lead to an actual split where bitcoin separates into two forks. I have yet to hear why bitcoin cannot have dynamically sized blocks which are exactly the size they need to be, but presumably there are reasons it needs a hard coded size.
In all honesty both possibilities fail to inspire me with much bitcoin love. (Will this open the door for some other alt to pick up the baton ?). However I think bigger block sizes will be received well by the market (although at cost of further centralisation because few people will cope with storage of such a hugely increasing blockchain which is already becoming a little too big to easily sync and store)
Regardless of that debate, from pure price perspective we are still some way above the recent bottom. I have no reason yet to expect that to be broken to downside. Heres another chart again on log scale but zoomed out this time.
I normally show the trendline supporting “the bottom” on a linear price scale but heres an attempt to show it on the log chart, which results in a kind of flattening curve on log scale.
The other main feature of this chart is the very well defined bear trend resulting from all time high and subsequent bubble collapse, shown with red trendlines.
The end of the bear trend will be the final defeat of the upper red trendline. Before that there is the red dashed line to suprass. Although these lines have provided very stout resistance they are falling rapidly and I expect will be beaten when price is too low to fall much farther. Bitcoin block size debate finally being resolved might provide a spring board to finally beat those trendlines.
The war on cash is real. Bankers want to start forcing negative interest rates on us, to force consumers to spend instead of save, ie to borrow even more debt and become even more enslaved. This means your money will shrink if left in your account. If people have the option of avoiding negative interest rates by withdrawing cash and sticking it under the mattress that wont work. Even worse for the bank that would cause a run on the bank. So cash is there as a barrier to bankers forcing even more debt on us by these negative interest rates. This is why they want to remove cash.
If you notice there is a campaign in the media to make cash seem like it is old fashioned and not needed because it is inconvinient, or expensive to handle. These are lies, real reasons are as outlined above.
This will all be positive for stores of value like gold, silver and bitcoin, unless these are somehow outlawed. (won’t suprise me if they try)
Anyway heres some more ideas on this topic from JS Kim. If you are not familiar with his work at SmartKnowledgeU I highly recommend checking it out.
By JS Kim
In these newsletters, we’ve been informing you of the extremely aggressive global banker push to enforce a cashless society upon us. In fact, the Denmark Central Bankers have already stated that they will stop printing new coins and new paper money in 2016 and that, starting in 2016, all vendors in Denmark can legally refuse to accept all coins and paper money for their goods and services! A top Citibank banker, Willem Buiter, has been urging the US government and Fed Reserve bankers to ban all cash transactions in the US as has Harvard professor Ken Rogoff, and most recently German economist Peter Bofinger has joined the bandwagon in calling for the Bundesbank to ban all cash in Germany. Is there anyone that is not calling for a ban in the use of cash in this world? And why are bankers so adamant about banning cash after hundreds of years of allowing cash as money but making all other forms of competitive money such as gold and silver illegal? What is happening in globa l currency markets right now that have they become so adamant about banning cash now? For answers to these questions, watch our video below.
Any logical person would conclude that this vocal and aggressive banker-sponsored movement points to enormous frailties and stresses in the current global banking system to which most are still blissfully unaware. And why have these frailties arisen? The answer clearly is because bankers have engaged in so much fraud with their ZIRP, QE policies and currency wars that the entire existence of the global fractional reserve banking system is now being threatened with terminal failure
Bitcoin appears to be stagnating a little bit at the moment with neither bulls nor bears really satisfied (yet). However at the moment on log chart we can see bitcoin has not held the bottom of the channel and looking a little weak.
I’ve drawn in another lower parallel, time will show if this will provide support. End of the bear trend idea is being tested here though. If there are no buyers coming in then price will fall.
All feels a little omminous to me. Can there be a new lower bottom ? Or can price bust through long term resistance ? Or are we going to watch it stagnate keeping bulls and bears unsatified? Well I don’t know. Answers on a postcard please
Nothing really has changed in the time since my last post its just more of the same. I still like the idea that bitcoin has already seen the bottom (and those waiting for sub $100 will never get their chance). Maybe I will turn out to be wrong but as things look to me ‘the end of the bear trend’ still looks like it might be playing out.
Heres btc-e with 1 day candles on log price scale
Bitcoin in US$ is rising gently as it has for roughly the last month. Although no big jump yet to test major resistance lines. First the red dashed line will need to be breached then the big upper red line which is very clear line on the chart.
Heres a zoomed out view of same chart, because I think it looks pretty. edit: Rocket ship is a tad optimistic I admit.
And because I’m bored at the moment heres another chart, I’ve found an interesting looking fit between bitcoin using ‘all time’ data from mtGox and btc-e. Bitcoin seems to fit very neat onto an arc. But what is this telling us ? Well I don’t know, maybe nothing? I’d like to see bitcoin start lifting away from that soon though.
I’ve started a thread of this theme in the bitcoin forums and thought might aswell make it a post too.
The bears have had all the fun in the last year but is the end in sight ? At the moment market is awash with pessimism and negativity. Could be the perfect time for a bottom to confound investors.
Heres BTC-E with a log price scale.
If bitcoin rallies up to the top of the bullish channel (marked in purple lines) it will be finally pushing free from the bubble collapse.
There will be some tough resistance to get past on upper red line but I think theres a good chance we will, possibly after being wedged under it for a while first.
This is a chart interesting me at the moment, BTC-E on log price scale
Chart shows the April 2013 mini bubble and then the main big bubble which we still deflating from. I’m looking for support just below $200 if we fall that far on green trendline.
Although bitcoin is still well within the down trending channel stretching down from the all time high or even despite the channel we are entrenched in I can’t shake the feeling that we are near the bottom of this correction/ bubble popping.
As I’ve mentioned in just about all my recent bitcoin posts I view prices at these levels as cheap and personally think of these prices as an ‘accumulation zone’. I could be wrong, but my money is where my mouth is and I’ve added to my own stack.
Nowadays bitcoin has scaled up and become more than just ‘mt gox’ and things are taking longer now than in earlier days of bitcoin. There is a huge amount of negative sentiment to get past though and this bubble is taking longer to correct than the massive bubble of 2011 for example.
Other things have changed too, bitcoin now has derivatives and although I don’t personally use an exchange where I can short bitcoin, it is possible. In this bubble correction that has been very profitable for many speculators possibly. I wonder if speculators shorting bitcoin is the cause of bitcoin being driven below what I referred to as the long term channel. And certainly more depressed prices than we were used to in the ‘old days’.
With that in mind heres a look at my ‘all time’ chart which combines data with the failed MtGox exchange from earliest days of bitcoin.
Long term channel referred to above was the lines shown in solid green. If bitcoin is to spring back into or above that long term channel at any point it will already require new all time high price. Although bitcoin can fall further or even to zero it does have an oversold look about it. Note the bullish divergence I’ve indicated using blue lines which on momentum indicator slope up. When a real bull phase does get going shorts covering may add even more fuel to the rocket.
With Bitcoin experiencing further drops are we heading back to test ‘the bottom’! ie the area around the lower green trendline on the below chart. Heres a look at todays 1 day chart from btc-e.
Bitcoin has not held the lower purple dashed line but instead looks to be following red bearish lines down, quite steeply in fact. How far down might it be heading? will it get down to that green trendline somewhere around $176 ?
If I switch to log price scale there does look like an area of support before reaching those levels though, heres 1 day btc-e but on log scale this time.
The bullish channel I mentioned in my last bitcoin post didn’t last very long, neither the area of horizontal support. However red trendline which is mid point of large bear channel may provide some support plus round number $200 is where I’m thinking might be next support if price drops further.
Below that there is green trendline on top linear price chart at $176. From bullish point of view I don’t want to see that support fail.
Having been burned by experiences with alt-coins in last year, first with Cloakcoin’s major disappointment as its exchange rate fell towards zero, then mintpal exchange disappearing along with my remaining alt-coin funds I’m bit wary of going near or discussing alt-coins again. But having said all that here I go again afterall..
Darkcoin is back on my radar. Except now its called Dash .. standing for Digital Cash I believe. The rebranding does look like a smart move to me by distancing themselves a bit from any negative perception of the ‘dark web’. Anyway other things have moved on too in Dash, since I last spoke about darkcoin as it was then the darksend feature is now all completely open source code. Darksend being closed source is one of the major things I didn’t like initially as you may recall if you follow my blog.
A bit older and wiser since my first forays into alt-coin I now think the risk of going into first pump of new coins full of promise is just too much risk for me. Dash however is now one of the established coins and the focus on privacy is a big draw for me.
Anyway, heres a look at some Dash charts from the Cryptsy exchange. Will start with looking at all data on log price scale. Here it is priced in bitcoin.
Here you can see darkcoin started with a massive bubble peak which has then spent several months deflating from. However more recently there is renewed buying and dash almost reached the level of that first peak just falling short. The latest bull run has been punctuated with two mini-bubbles the second of which dash is still falling from. I’m wondering if 0.0135 where the price hits my trendline may turn out to be a good entry to Dash as it gains again for another leg up ? In my typical impatient fashion I’m already in, in fact.
Another thing I’m wondering about is the kind of rounded bottom of this chart, are we looking at a large cup and handle formation?
Anyway heres another closer look at the recent moves up.
Not much to add except note the huge volatility. Investing in alts is definately not for everybody. But personally I like Dash and also like the look of the chart.
As always please note this isn’t trading advice just a sharing of my own ideas which sometimes work out and sometimes don’t . I am far from being a financial expert.