Signing out

This is my last post on my afbitcoins blog. Its been a fun rollercoaster ride since my blog began but I think its just about ran its course and I so I now leave the arena.

It can be difficult at times posting your trading opinions in a public website. However in the last year I think I have made mostly good calls, I correctly identified the bottom of the last bubble correction and end of the bear trend. I picked the top in the last litecoin bubble. I picked the right time to accumulate more bitcoin when price wallowed between $200 and $300.

There have been mistakes too over the course of this blog. The two most painful ones for me to recall being investing in Cloak and getting back into bull mode too early when bitcoin was still due another year of decline. However I learned good lessons to take with me from these expriences.

Overall it has been profitable for me and I hope for readers of this blog too.

Big thanks to all those that stopped by to read my blog and share comments and help make this blog what it was.

Down wave

With bitcoin failing to retest the midline of the fork, and down 6% as I write (edit 7%) (edit 8%), I decided to take a look how this is fitting in with my bullish fork on bitcoin log chart.

So heres the chart as bitcoin continues to fall ..

As you can see we fell through another support level and now heading down towards the next one below. It looks like bitcoin might test the area around the bottom of this fork. In coming days if we see further falls its easy to imagine price getting down to about $400.

This paints a picture of a dead cat bounce from the initial $500 spike however I dont think this is really a dead cat but will end up looking like a bear trap with price rebounding and continuing bullish moves. In my opinion we are just too near the halving for a real bear trend to develop.

In fact if you look back at charts in which I recently posted with arrows projecting future price moves I have included a kind of dead cat bounce on most of them. This move is so far playing out roughly how I have been expecting.

If you are brave (and know what you are doing) there is possibility of shorting or selling in the short term. Bitcoin could go lower than $400 even. Just as possible it can rebound from this drop. Volitility is hard to trade. Personally Im trying not to fixate on this short term noise.

Merry Christmas

Silver vs Bitcoin

A long time ago I wrote a post Fight!!!! Silver versus bitcoins. It was way back when 1 ounce of fine silver had recently been overtaken in value by 1 bitcoin. At the time bitcoin had stormed past silver’s all time high aswell.

Heres a chart from that old post for the sake of nostalgia; (It was quite painstaking to create that chart lots of manual scaling and layering of images but I managed to make it pretty accurate.)

Image

So I wonder where are we today in that epic fight of bitcoin versus silver? A lot of time has elapsed. Things have changed. It pains me to write this because I openly admit I really really like silver. The feeling of holding an ounce of silver in your hands. The history of silver, as money. The purity of silver, everything about it, and it looks fantastic too.

But it just cannot be denied silver is getting trounced!

Heres a similar chart, up to date (and much easier to produce now that I have TradingView website).

The line way down at the bottom which is gently declining is silver, while that wild mountainous jagged layout is the familiar bitcoin chart. The rectangle shows rough area covered by the first chart at top of post.

As I write 1 bitcoin is valued 33 times more than 1 ounce spot price of silver. That is after a huge 2 year decline in bitcoin, although admittedly bitcoin is up after those lows.

Heres another way to look at the fight of silver versus bitcoin. This chart is showing the ratio of bitcoin / silver. I was intrigued by this chart earlier this evening. I like this view because it cuts fiat out of the chart completely. Note I’m using a log price scale here.

As you can see I’ve drawn a long term bull channel (bull for bitcoin not silver) and a shorter term bear channel is also included during bitcoins recent bubble collapse. The bit that intrigues me the most is the lowest bull trendline which was very well defined a few years ago and only recently hit again during bitcoins lows. But look how well defined that trendline is. Almost makes me wonder if I should switch to using silver as my scale of value instead of US$. Actually a feeling I get when looking at gold ratio too.

Anyway I am invested in silver and still a believer in its monetary properties. But I have to say most of my attention is focused on crypto and I think that is the way the tide is turning in general too.

Further validation of the bull fork

In my previous post I speculated that we were due a correction which turned out in fact did happen, with price now down to about $416 as I write. However I don’t get the opportunity to be too smug about this as my prediction had the run ending at about $450 where the horizontal resistance lies when in fact it shot a good way higher first.

Heres how it looks on Bitstamp, log price scale 4 hour candles. Notice where the run spiked up to.

This chart is once again showing the same bull fork I’ve mentioned in other recent posts. Here the spike touched just about bang on the mid line of the fork before the steep correction began. If any further evidence was needed, this is the bull trend plainly visible. With this fork showing the slope of the trend. The way bitcoin is going I won’t be surprised to see price break up into the top half of this fork before long. I bet the bankers wish they could suppress bitcoin the way they do gold. (edit: as a caveat to that I’m not saying it will break up straight away, there may be a bearish period to endure first in which this last spike begins to look like a dead cat bounce and giving false hope to bears)

For a bit more context heres another look at the same fork zoomed out a little bit on 1 day chart so I can show the points how the fork is defined.

I’m guessing there’ll now be a period of consolidation but to me the bull trend seems pretty clear on longer timescales.

Hodl or trade with caution

I have a sneaky feeling bitcoin’s current rise is too much too soon and will soon correct. I could be wrong so trade with caution. But this might be near top of this move. Anyway heres my prediction.

Setting aside the 4 hour charts and the bull fork for a while. My larger picture is still same as I posted in my recent Bitcoin Primed post but arrows projecting into the future have moved a little.

Heres bitstamp with 1 week candles and log price scale

Bitcoin is nearing a level of potential horizontal resistance. Looking at the rhythm of other peaks and dips I can imagine its time for a bit of a dip. This is just my suspicions not really ‘analysis’. The dip will look a bit like a dead cat bounce from the recent mini bubble up to $500.

Volume seems lower at the moment maybe signifying a bit of wariness. If this does correct down to the bottom of the bull channel that will be quite a large drop somewhere near $350 I’d estimate.

Safest bet is to hodl if you are already in. Otherwise maybe consider selling (or shorting) if it appears to bounce down from that horizontal line. Word of caution when bitcoin is in full on bull mode sometimes the corrections are flat but I’m not sure we are there yet.

If bitcoin pushes through that line of horizontal resistance instead of correcting down then we may quickly push up towards $600 just falling a little short as panic buying sets in. This scenario is also possible but in my view maybe a bit less likely.

Satoshi Nakamoto

Bitcoin’s Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably (edit: maybe) This Unknown Australian Genius (Craig Steven Wright)

http://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/

The fact that the police have raided his home is nothing to do with it though, oh no, definately not. Not looking for private keys left lying around at all. No sir.

So far bitcoin price remains bullish, maybe investors are satisfied that Satoshi’s stash of bitcoin is not going to be touched until 2020.

Meanwhile after being held under $400 for the last few days, the pent up pressure has released with Bitcoin broken up through another level on the bullish fork I’m monitoring.

Outlook. Still bullish

Bull fork

Normally I pay most attention to longer timescales but this fork on the 4 hour chart has me interested at the moment.

Looks like bitcoin is failing to get above resistance might take a dip down towards the area marked with a circle.

However overall trend still looks bullish.

Bitcoin Primed

Before my bitcoin analysis just want to express my dismay over whats happening in Paris at the moment. Thoughts of love and peace being sent out to French, Syrians, Christians and Muslims.

My own fears are about the outcome of this terror attack, just as 9/11 trade centre attack/false flag, ushered in a new era of wars in the middle east and relentless clamp down of civil liberties I fear we will be subjected to even more of this kind of treatment. The powers that be never let a good crisis go to waste and I fear this will be milked to its utmost. With hundreds of raids on homes in Paris and French forces already bombing in the middle east, you have to wonder is this going to help matters or pour more gasoline on an inflammable situation? It is no secret that the west has wanted a war with Syria for some time, maybe this is the excuse.

Another spooky co-incidence like 9/11 is the fortuitous discovery of passports linking to the terrorists. Handy.

Looking at the bigger picture this is just more of the same. We are being herded into the new world order and possible world war wether we like it or not.


Anyway I hope you excuse my rant. With that off my chest heres some bitcoin analysis. I’ve shared this idea on TradingView and thought I might as well add it onto my blog too. Heres the familiar log chart from bitstamp.

Some of this analysis is repeated from ideas I’ve already expressed in this blog. I feel my bullish ideas provide a contrary opinion to the many bearish ideas expressed on Trading View currently.

In log price chart there is a well defined bull channel, shown in green which goes back to 2012 (and possibly earlier if MtGox data were available). Recent spike up to $500 ended exactly on midpoint of the uptrending channel (supporting the validity for the trendlines). Other evidence for these trendlines is provided by the upper trendline of the channel which supported bitcoin multiple times while it was in bubble territory before finally giving way as the price went on to reach its post bubble low.

The recent spike is reminicent of ‘mini’ bubble in bitcoin in 2012 before the huge bull moves began.

In the short term if horizontal resistance at $320 doesn’t hold then price should find solid support at around $270 ish which will be a great place to go long if it gets that low, with sell stop under the channel.

With bitcoin already very depressed after the collapse of the last bubble there is plenty of room on the upside. Bitcoin can get past previous all time highs while still in the channel, before even getting into crazy bubble territory.

For fun I’ve shown possible path price might take as the halving mania and price pump begins to take hold using some black arrows.

Mini bubble

On 4hour chart the recent rise to $500 then fall down to about $300 looks like a bubble, or in the case of bitcoin a mini bubble. We all know a real bitcoin bubble when we see it, dwarfing all time highs etc. So I say this is a mini bubble.

Heres the 4 hour chart. Note all charts on this post are using log price scale which is my preferred view usually.

If this is to follow a normal bubble kind of shape then we might expect a ‘dead cat’ bounce. And as I write bitcoin appears to have started rebounding quite strongly. Although it is disheartening to see price fall so far from $500 down to $300, especially if you bought during that rise, take comfort in the thought that $300 looks like it is the new $200.

If price does fall below $300 I would imagine it to bottom on the lower trendline of my up trending channel, currently around $265. But it might never get that far. For me the overall context of bitcoin is now bullish rather than bearish. We’ve already seen the break out from the giant bear trendline and now the break above the horizontal ‘accumulation zone’. We will probably have to endure a few more volatile ups and downs before the next big move (up), as this market corrects and absorbs the new levels in price.

Zooming out to 1 week chart you can see other mini bubbles which followed in the wake of the first giant bitcoin bubble (which isn’t shown on this chart as the data doesn’t reach far enough back on Bitstamp).

Note on those past mini bubbles dead cat bounces bottomed higher than the first fall, I’ll be looking for something like that again in the aftermath of this mini bubble with an upwards trend becoming more and more obvious as time goes on.

As always note my disclaimer, that my opinions are my own and freely shared but I am not advising anyone what they should do in their own trading.