Welcome to my new blog, which I’ve been planning for a while and finally taking the plunge. I’m intending to use this blog as a place where I can share my thoughts, primarily on all things bitcoin, markets and wider economy. I hope that this blog may become a useful resource in time for other bitcoin traders. I welcome conversation in the blog’s comments so that I and others may be stimulated to learn more.
The Bitcoin Charts site I use happens to be down at the moment. [Edit: It is online again]. At the time of writing the price is around about $20.70 for 1BTC and this current bullish run remains very much intact. The following chart is slightly out of date but depicts this bull run showing bitcoins beginning a run from approx $13 in January up to $19.5, after which they’ve had a minor correction but then pushed on to new highs for this year. As shown in the RSI on this scale bitcoins have been overbought yet continued to rise.
The questions to ask are what has driven this run and how far might it go? The overriding factor that comes to my mind is the fact that the reward for mining blocks has recently halfed from 50BTC to 25BTC. This is bound to have an impact on the bitcoin economy as miners are able to supply less coins to the market. On top of that demand for bitcoins appears to be increasing through the use of gambling sites like satoshi dice. In my opinion these factors combined make it likely that this run is sustainable and will eventually find a kind of plateau rather than falling back down to lower levels. How high will they rise I’m not going to try and guess.