The bull run we are on has extended past the end of the 1 month chart I’ve been drawing so here it is on a 2 month chart (above), zooming out like this makes the features a little smaller than on the 1 month charts.
My channel is still intact but has been tested on both sides in the past few days. We’ve had a first test of the old all time high which is somewhere in the region of $31.5, however sellers waiting at that level came in and the price fell, eventually bouncing off the floor of the channel somewhere around $28.5. After that bounce, the price continued upwards until confronting my mid-trendline which, unlike last time, this time it failed to break through back to the upside. This has left us languishing in the lower half of the channel at this time.
Personally I’m feeling some bearishness creeping back into my outlook. Although its good that the bottom of the channel provided support, I’m getting just a little uneasy on a few fronts. The failure to get back into the top half of the channel is a little bearish and indicators such as bolinger bands and RSI are clearly showing we are overbought on larger timescales, (although this has been the case for most of this current run to be fair), how long can this last? Might the resistance at the old high prove to be the point where a larger correction finally occurs?
On the other side of the coin I do think that the price channel is well established. The bottom of the channel looks strong though and was tested a lot at the beginning of February. There is a huge wave of enthusiasm for bitcoins and they are getting more mentions in the mainstream. Lots to ponder at the moment.