Heres a log chart with my March channel drawn in again. I said I’d be watching to see if we stay in that channel. Even though we are in it currently (just) we fell out the bottom recently, to me it doesn’t look like the channel is active anymore no matter how much I wanted it to be.
There is still the original channel I followed which looks like might have provided support at the bottom of the crash which I haven’t drawn in. Will watch closely what happens if we test the bottom of that channel again.
The 200 day moving average looks very interesting, here it is on a 3 month chart.
The 200 day moving average has provided support several times during the bull run. Look now, we are under it. Also it looks like it may now be resistance. This doesn’t seem to provide much of a bullish outlook.
Although I am a long term bitcoin bull, and that certainly hasn’t changed with this latest bubble. Its getting very hard to stay bullish in the near term. Although it pains me to say it I might have to become bearish for a while. This bull run might have been nipped in the bud by creation of some kind of fake top, as I’ve postulated elsewhere. Or perhaps it was just a normal speculative bubble.
In the end bitcoins still have the same strong fundamentals as always. None of the reasons for trusting them or believing in them have changed. Their spectaular rise may yet have several more speculative bubbles waiting in the future, on the way to them attaining their full potential.