Heres an updated look at that 10 day log chart again.
I’ve got to be honest I thought we’d touch resistance then bounce straight back down. That would be the normal reaction to touching resistance. We broke through the bullish uptrend, marked in blue but still we are jammed up hard against the ceiling of the channel. I have also drawn in a horizontal line that might be giving support, marked in purple. This refusal to rebound back down puzzled me somewhat.
It looks like theres a right royal battle raging at the moment between the bearish channel I’ve been drawing and some apparently quite strong support coming from somewhere. Could it be from this long term channel ?
Anyone who reads my blog has probably seen this channel quite a few times now which I’ve drawn on a log chart of all mt gox data. This is the long term uptrend, which as far as I’m concerned is still very valid. We are currently right above the top of the channel.
I think this battle could be between the top of that long term channel providing support and the roof of the down trending channel, which has the price enclosed in a very tight range. If that support fails it will mean we’ve dropped into the long term up channel shown in green above, which looks to have a bottom somewhere around 20 ish. I don’t forsee any danger at all we’ll get below that.
If support wins it means we’re still above the long term up channel, would it also mean the bears defeated already? Its a very interesting time in bitcoins, which will win, bears or bulls? Your guess is probably as good as mine.