Just a quick post to note the breakout of my channel that happened earlier.

Heres the 10 day chart with the breakout marked by a little red arrow in case you missed it.


So does this mean the bears are defeated already? Its definitely a very bullish sign but I’m not sure it means the bears are defeated quite yet and that down slope looks pretty well defined. Perhaps the downward pressure on price will continue. At this point I don’t see any obvious new up trend yet.

Personally I’m undecided, I’ve sold some bitcoins, had a change of heart and bought some back and losing on both sides of the trade :-/ Perhaps I just need to sit back a while and observe.

2 thoughts on “Breakout

  1. In general, your analysis seemed very convincing. I’m wondering if you though of an external factor that is pretty much foreign in the normal investment world. Or at least I think it is. Do you think the verification backlog on mtgox might be responsible for this slower rise?

    There has been so much hype right now, maybe many people have already decided to invest some disposable income. But they couldn’t all do it at once, they are slowly trickling into the system. Since it takes a long time to get verified, and then a long time to deposit a bunch of money, maybe that’s what is cause this ‘stretching’ of the most recent surge?

    You’re probably a lot more knowledgeable than me, but it was just a thought I had.

    1. Hi The_Clarkster, Thanks for commenting on my blog, wouldn’t say I’m that knowledgeable though 🙂

      What you’ve said, that could be a factor, I think MtGox has had a huge bearing on the price moves over the course of that peak. Maybe those that were late to the party are only buying in now causing this bullish behaviour. I heard somewhere that the crash was caused by the MtGox infrasturcture not being able to handle the volume of new accounts being created so MtGox definately has a big impact on the market.

      For me the biggest influence is just human psychology of bubbles though. We’ve had the party, and now its like a hangover. I was expecting a fairly long slow decline but this breakout is making me wonder a bit.

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