Doubts

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Heres the latest 10 day chart. I’ve got more or less the same trend lines drawn as on my last chart. As you can see it looks like the bull move has managed another breakout up through resistance.

However there is a green dotted line which shows where I put the bottom of the bull channel in my last post. If you use that line as the bottom of the bull channel we also fell through the bottom of that channel. What does that mean? Stalemate? Or that my lines are shit? Perhaps that line was in the wrong place, as you probably notice I’ve increased the width of that channel and hey presto the bull move is still in its channel. I’ll be looking for support around that area to see if the line is valid.

One of the recent comments made an interesting point that latecomers to Mt Gox might be fuelling this rise as their authentication processes become completed which sounds like quite a plausible scenario to me. If we reach the top of that channel that will be price pushing up towards $200 again. I have to admit it is hard sitting on the sidelines watching a rising price and thinking you’re missing out. It was my temptation to buy more that got me looking at the charts again just now.

A couple of things make me hesitate though before feeling confidently bullish again. One is that the bearish trend lines do look like they are still active, even though they have been breached a couple of times, both times you can see how they provided resistance before the breakouts.  The other is a nagging feeling, wondering if this might be the the start of a dead-cat bounce. Some of the bull market tops I looked at in a previous post have had similar looking moves after their peaks.

 

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2 thoughts on “Doubts

  1. It seems to me that sentiment is not as broadly bullish as it was a month ago.
    MtGox was out for a couple hours today and btc declined on the otber exchanges. Not a waterfall cascade but still it dropped. When MtGox came back there was a brief dip which was quickly bought back.
    There must be a lesson in there for PMs as well. People respond strongly to the dollar price of a thing even though that thing is a potential store of wealth Itself, which should not need to be defined by the dollar.

  2. People have been conditioned their whole lives to view the fiat price as the value of something. I still keep calculating what is the fiat value of my bitcoins or my ounces myself, perhaps I need to break out of that habit

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