Correction!

Well that resistance lasted about 2 minutes after my last post! Lol! On such thin volume all it took was one quite large purchase to push through and so here we are again, price pushing up, blatently ignoring the bearish trendlines I was adding a few days ago and mocking my attempt to put resistance before it only about an hour ago.

I don’t think being bearish in bitcoins suits me very much. Despite how I’ve tried to convince myself numerous times, that I’m a short term bear since the recent price crash, in reality I’ve never been 100% convinced. In fact my bears versus bulls post summed up quite well the indecision I’ve been feeling.

The breakup through resistance just a few minutes ago has prompted me to look again at the longer term trends. Take a look at this 3 month log chart.

Image

That middle rising trend line is the very same one dating back to March which I was drawing in before the price crashed. Currently we are under than line but it looks like the price is trying to break up through it again. Could it be that the price peak and subsequant low have defined a massive up trending channel which is primed to take us to $500 bitcoins and beyond.

If this is valid then it could be that the peak was in fact just a large correction after all. The mind boggles how high bitcoins could go if this is the case.

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “Correction!

  1. Haha, very entertaining to read your posts and how you’re trying to come to a conclusion whether the correction continues and prices will fall over the next months, or if it is over and the trend is up again. Mirros my own feelings exactly.

    I came from a similar point of view, post-crash, having convinced myself that 50 to 70 USD would be a fair valuation. Never got a chance to buy at that price. I changed my mind (towards ‘bullish, for now’) a bit earlier than you probably, on April 18th, when the EMA10 crossed the EMA21 on the 4 hour interval chart, and the upward trend (that holds until now) began to look increasingly stable to me.

    Today the price continues to shoot up (163 at the time of this writing), and I’m starting to get worried. Looking at my own trendlines, assuming we’re back to “moderate” exponential growth (which already would be quite optimistic), we should reach 200 again in early May. Problem is, the way we’re heading now, 200 will be reached in a few days. Too fast to be stable, I believe. Assuming that’s true, and another correction will take place, the big question is, at what price exactly?

    1. I miss the old days were I could just be bullish and sit happily in the up trending channel. Ah those were the days. Still feeling bullish just now, though i notice price is dipping a bit, maybe like you say it needs to take it a bit easier. Mt Gox servers have been beefed up apparently but could easily gum up again if we start reaching new highs in the next month or two.

      1. Actually, turns out today was a great day for bitcoin trading: very high volume, but mtgox didn’t break apart like before. And: the frantic rally to a new weekly high (+50 in 25 hours) was met by a controlled, non-panicky correction.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s