So the down trend has won out. This is roughly what the break downwards looked like on the 10 day chart
This chart shows a close up of the closing wedge we were constrained in with the break downwards quite clear to see. To be honest I wasn’t entirely surprised as the bounces up from the lower trend seemed to be getting less and less emphatic over the last few days and by the end the price was dragging itself upwards, scraping along the bottom of the channel.
Perhaps we are running out of new buyers who joined MtGox around the time of the peak? Perhaps the attacks on Silk Road are having an effect on the market after all ? Perhaps the market just needs a longer period of consolidation after all. Whatever it is, I think the new trend to look at is a bearish one again.
Heres a 1 month chart with the trend drawn in.
Will be monitoring this down trend, marked in red, in the short term to see if it looks valid. Have also drawn a ‘nearly’ horizontal line that looks like will provide some support. Perhaps it will be strong enough to constrain the price in another closing wedge from which the price will break up out the top of that downtrend. We’ll see. If we hit the bottom of this channel looks like we could be revisiting the $100 bitcoins again.