Further detail on the down trend


Another view of the 1 month log chart as an update to my last post.

Just been playing with the lines trying to find a nice fit for the downward trend and also justify why I’ve picked these lines. Points of contact illustrated with transparent red blobs. Its not an exact science and many detractors of technical analysis may scoff that you can draw lines arbitrarily almost anywhere on a chart to support your own prejudice. However if that was the case I’d be trying to find a bullish trend myself. 

The top two lines show where the rough channel is that I’ve been attempting to draw recently.  I’ve also added an extra parallel below, which also looks like may fit the same slope. If you look closely many of the marks showing hits on the lines actually overshoot or just fall short. Its not an exact science. Lots of this is done by gut feelings. However I was able to more or less predict the last bounce in price earlier in the speculation forums.

I’m now thinking this is the dead cat bounce I anticipated and hoped wouldn’t happen. I wanted this particular bull run to rival the 2011 one, but it appears to be falling short (if you look at it in terms of magnitude), if it had managed to keep going that long, we’d have been dealing with $500 dollar bitcoins. I think a fairly long period of consolidation awaits now, may be another couple of years until the next big wave up. Although with the state of the world economy I wouldn’t rule anything out happening sooner.

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