Some speculation

I usually look at the chart on a log price scale but heres how the last 6 months looks on a regular scale.


To me that that chart is a thing of beauty, I don’t mean the lines I’ve added but the shape the parabolic rise, the steep plunge the dead cat bounce. Almost identical to that predicted by looking at the typical shape of bull market tops in one of my previous posts.

But whats really amazing is actually feeling all the emotions of the different phases, optimism, thrill, euphoria, anxiety, fear, panic etc A great learning experience I think for future bitcoin and precious metal rises of which I have no doubt will be coming at some point soon enough as a consequence of the massive global death spiral of unbacked fiat currency.

Heres the one month log chart again.


The red line from the top chart corresponds to the top line of this channel. The fact that price is dipping just now after testing the resistance line at the top was no real suprise to me. The bottom of the channel I’m still altering every other day, can’t decide where to put it yet :-p

But what about that green line on my top chart? Is that a real line of support? Where’s that coming from. Heres my old friend the ‘all data’ log chart again.


Ignoring the grey rectangles for now and looking at the green upwards channel. I’d say that the green line on the top chart might be none other than the top line of that green channel. Looking closely you can see it looks like the dead cat bounce came right off that support line, with some overshoot.

Those rectangles are pretty interesting too, I’ve done a bit of measuring and by my reckoning, the long term trend is increasing by 10 times every 16 months or so! Can you imagine where we’ll be if this holds for say 5 years! 😮

Going back to the 1 month chart it looks like the current down channel may encounter quite a stern test in the near future when it hits the top of that ‘green’ long term channel. Its going to be yet another epic bull versus bear moment. If we fall through that support then we’ll be back in the green channel which we were in for most of 2012. Price could even touch the bottom of that channel somewhere down near $20 or $30. Perhaps that support will hold and  who knows how high bitcoins might go once they get going again.

Interesting times

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