Closing wedge

Heres a  3 month view of the action in bitcoins as I see it, as usual on a log scale.

Image

That green line is not easy to draw on this timescale. It is the top of the long term trendline I’ve shown in my previous post. That line is defined by price action going back to Jan 2012.

You might think I’m nuts even having any faith in that line which is fine, thats your perogative. You may point out that the price has dipped well below it a couple of times after the recent price crash. However those dips came after tremendous falls which to me feels similar to trying to hold an inflated balloon under water. Anyway I’ve drawn it in as accurately as i could, and I do think it is providing support personally.

As an aside, the point around the middle of March when we broke up through that same line is when I was prompted to write To the moon !!! Which to be fair is what happened with the price sky rocketing up to $266 in the space of a couple of weeks after that.

The red line of the closing wedge is the top line of the down trending channel I’ve been following for the last while and is much easier to see now.

At the moment I reckon we are near the top of the range, price could drop below $100 but would probably quickly find support at about $90 ish.  But that wedge is closing soon. If the bear trend wins out, I think bitcoins might go below $50 before too long. If the bull trend wins out, I’m not sure if price will suddenly explode up or anything, unless the shit really hits the fan in the global economy. However lets face it that is a real possibility, despite the mainstream media picture of everything rosy in the garden of our central bank manipulated world.

So which way will it break? The battle of the bears versus the bulls is still raging. Buggered if I know.

PS I’ve had to correct the last chart on my previous post in which I said the long term trend line was increasing by 10 times every 8 months. I’d counted the months wrong and in actual fact it is increasing by 10 every 16 months, sorry about that (though not sure anyone noticed). Still a 10 times increase every 16 months is still pretty phenomenal.

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