As bullish as ever

I’m starting off with this chart produced on TradingView which shows the entire 2013 ‘bubble’ on a non log scale for once. Each candle is one week.

20131004 chart

This looks very bullish to me, a large rising channel is apparent. You might not make it out unless you look closely however the spike down after the silk road seizure looks like it might have confirmed the bottom of this large rising channel.

This leads me to think that the 2013 ‘bubble’ be a small peak on top of an upwards trend which is still taking off and may lead to much higher new highs

The story of bitcoins just gets wierder and wierder. An important detail about the silk road seizure is how the fed has now accumulated a large stash of bitcoins. I wonder which other pots of bitcoins might be in their sights at some time? MtGox is hosted on american soil (i think), legality of bitcoins is still to be determined mostly. Would it be easy to tweak a law to put MtGox on the wrong side of it? Are the federal types now doing bitcoin seizures and building up their own hoard? I’m just asking questions.

Back to the Technical Analysis, heres another couple of charts below. The first showing the last few months compared to the trendlines I’ve been focusing on recently. Note how when compared to the bubble collapse, the drop from operation silk road looks pretty minor.

20131004 chart

Price has bounced back up above the lowest tramline i’ve shown on my last few posts. When the dust settles we’ll know if support will be found there or not.

The price has tested resistance at the bottom of the channel we were in previously, I think in the short term there might be a dip coming up, the next battle would be the resistance line that we were about to bust through if the silk road black swan hadn’t happened.

Heres a last chart to show the battle we might expect between bulls and bears, perhaps resolving around Oct24th

20131004 chart

3 thoughts on “As bullish as ever

  1. …crazy, as if nothing happened. Why did everybody panic anyway?! I guess this famous “My name is legion: for we are many” bible quote should read instead: “Our name is lemmings: for we are many”…

    1. I suspect it was people who had sold and/or bought something on SR panic selling to get rid of any BTC that could be linked to the site… Then the herd joined in until buy orders balanced (I had orders in MTGox for $110/coin that were fulfilled on the day)

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