Cup and Handle

I’ve been waving my hands around in the air and chanting, and for good measure gazing into some tea leaves and come up with this idea for whats about to unfold.. Disclaimer – blah blah not my fault if this doesn’t happen.

Previously when I’ve thought about the cup n handle formation I’ve thought about it as a horizontal pattern, where the April high would form one side and the other side would have spiked at about the same price as that April high. However now I’m thinking I should factor in the slope provided by my ‘take off’ chart.

Heres what it looks like with that slope factored in..

The base of the cup is at say $150 with the top of the cup estimated at about $365 ish. There will then follow a decline in price to form the handle maybe down to $250 ish ?

The cup n handle is a bullish formation http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

Based on this, if it plays out of course, bitcoins would fall to about $250 ish over the next month or so and then a new rally would begin with a target of $550 – $600 ish

Sounds good to me, now to sit back and be proved totally wrong.

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7 thoughts on “Cup and Handle

  1. Hope you’re right. If I see same pattern in my coffee grind, I’ll tell you.

    Price has just gone over USD300 in btc-e.
    Price has just gone over CNY2000 in btcnCNY. Sooo Crazyyyy

    1. I’m guessing it might go down to where the bottom of my arrow is at about $260 dollars (on that mt gox data), based on the way cup n handle formations seem to play out.. Buts its early days you’re guess might well be better than mine. Also bitcoin oftens surprises

      1. I think you’re right on this one – Just published a quick idea at https://www.tradingview.com/v/ROYGrXy6

        You can see the MA’s have turned and the VStop has shifted to being a resistance rather than a support on the 4 hour ticks.

        I sold 50% of my trading coins at $389 and the other 50% at $344. Looks like the selling has followed USA open around 4pm GMT, then China opening around 00:00 GMT and then a bit of buying in the early European hours before another round of selling in early afternoon GMT.

        I suspect we will see the US wake up over the next few hours and panic sell on the price now having dropped to $320.

        If we drop through $310, I think we’re on our way to $260 with a possible spike down to $140-150. Expect consolidation around where you have suggest in the $250-260 range.

        $400 always felt like a mental sell wall to me! Looks like my $200 by Christmas prediction in September could have been on the money (even if we go there in a much wilder way than I expected!)

        Having written all that, I bet it now bounces up through $350 and we’re at $500 by Christmas 😀

  2. Thanks for your chart, nice analysis. I sold my ‘trading’ bitcoins too, most of them I hold though. However I think I really need to start using a trading platform if I’m going to trade on shorter timescales, localbitcoins isn’t really much use for trading, too much of a huge spread between buyers and sellers. Annoying if I end up getting less bitcoins back than I started with even if guessing the market right. Although I think patience is in order.

    Early days but still looks like this handle is forming to me..

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