Its a shame letting go of my cup n handle thesis, I did quite like that one but maybe its time to admit that the handle does not look like it is forming. In fact it was a crap handle, only one red candle in it so far on a 1day chart.
At the moment it looks more like the price wants to break through to new highs and past the $400 per bitcoin level instead of behaving properly. It was supposed to have a little bear run so i can pat myself on the back and buy back some cheaper bitcoins. But do they ever go low ? I guess that bubble just wasn’t quite big enough to have a proper correction yet. Or maybe I’m not patient enough?
Where then after breaking new highs? Who knows? theres nothing but thin air above.
I should learn not to underestimate bitcoins. Every time I try and trade the volatility to sell high and buy low, I seem to end up having to pay more to buy them back. Thankfully I only trade very small amounts of my stash. But still even though I’ve gained in fiat, losing bitcoins feels like losing money more than gaining in fiat feels like gaining money, or maybe thats just me?
As I’ve said one of the best strategies is the one I normally do which is to just buy and hold bitcoins for the long term, while they relentlessly rise to discover their true value as a global currency which bankers cannot inflate value away from.
Heres a log chart showing bitcoins rise from fractions of a dollar up to hundreds of dollars in only about 3 years since they were first created.
I’ve added a trend line by eyeballing what looks like a good fit to actual trend. We are slightly above that line at the moment and rarely have been below it. If this trend holds then by the start of 2015 bitcoins would be about $3500 US, thats if we are on the trendline at that time, if we are above the trendline, as now, it could easily be above $6000 by then.
That trend doesn’t have to hold like that of course, past performance does not guarantee anything about the future performace. But considering how scarce bitcoins actually are (only about 10 million in existance and only ever will be max of 21 million, compared to billions of ounces of gold for example, or trillions and trillions of US dollars) plus the way demand is really taking off just now in places like China. It isn’t that hard to believe that bitcoins can quite easily reach those kind of levels. Bitcoins is a game changing technology.