Another fork

In my last post ‘Waterfall’ I tracked the correction using a steep downwards fork. I’d say it was pretty successful for the short duration it was active but the price has already busted through to the upside. Looking like this.

The price ultimately bottomed below the first bullish fork I’d been watching but has now climbed through and above that one too.

So heres a new fork that might be worth watching. Using the high and low of this manic top and the correction bottom as it’s B and C points.

The mid point of this fork could show a bit of resistance and if that is the case make a kind of dead cat bounce pattern. Is it too bullish to think the price is going to continue to levitate up, up and away ? A small part of me is wary this could be a bit of a dead cat bounce, but I don’t think so. For a start the price barely paused for breath on its climb from $200 up to over $900. I know this because I spent most of that time waiting for a dip to buy into.

Also the phenomenal rise has grabbed a whole lot of media attention. People are talking about bitcoins all over the mainstream now. A new wave of investors may soon enter. The chinese are really going for it and apparently one of the chinese exchanges is now the largest.

Spike to $2000 still on maybe? Or infinity and beyond?

On some US TV station they were talking about how central banks CAN manipulate bitcoins, (unfortunately don’t have a link to the clip). Anyway, they do this apparently by adjusting the rates of fiat money and all that usual interfering crap they do, which they claim will affect bitcoins and gold and stuff.

Dream on central bankers! Imagine bitcoins is a cute puppy and so is fiat another cute puppy, the bankers are going. ‘if you don’t play our game we’ll stop hurting this fiat puppy!’… or something. Lol it sort of made sense to me that analogy.

By the way it only ‘works’ on gold because they sell hoards of paper into the market at those times to create the illusion of it working. Manipulators your days are ending.

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19 thoughts on “Another fork

  1. Here’s my latest chart (put some explanation on the page) but basically I think we’re in a closing wedge on the 1 hour ticks. Looks like we might go back down to $680 short term, was some selling over night from Asia that I totally missed.

    Also you were asking about trading apps, I’m trying out Bitcoin Trading QT no charting in there but makes placing buy/sells a lot easier!

    Also go long on Peercoin, just broken back out of 0.002 and should rise with a falling/consolidating Bitcoin. BTC-E maybe listing USD/PPC soon though now that 1 PPC = $1. Annoyed I didn’t buy some more around 0.00154 yesterday 😦

  2. I think we’ll blow that resistance away. (but could easily be wrong. ) tried editing your comment to embed the chart but hasn’t worked. dont’ know why because sometimes it does work.

    i’ve never heard of peercoin ? is that another bitcoin clone? haven’t used any others myself, occasionally been tempted to dip my toes into litecoins but haven’t had good enough reason yet.

    Heres an update to my fork. so far looks like support is being found in bottom half of fork and resistance at the midline.

    https://www.tradingview.com/e/9l6791xV/

    1. Your fork looks to be pretty much spot on, my prediction curve was holding so well for a few ticks and then we blasted up through it with east coast of US waking up. Although we couldn’t get through $780 again so be interesting to see what happens with west coast and China during the rest of the day.

      I still think we will see some falls over the weekend if we don’t get through $780 tonight.

      Peercoin is based on Bitcoin and SHA-256 Proof of Work but it is the first innovative new coin (Litecoin is basically the same just with Scrypt so it needs more RAM to mine which makes it harder to do an ASIC). Peercoin, and Primecoin by the same developer, are completely different.

      WIth Peercoin it is based on a Proof of Work and Proof of Stake system for mining new coins, verifying transactions and new blocks. At the moment Proof of Work is more profitable with about 180 new coins a block however over time this will shift to Proof of Stake.

      Proof of Stake basically means that you stake some of your coins in your wallet, which have to have a coin age of 30 days (so you need to have been holding them for 30 days) and once staked you can’t spend or move them for 520 blocks. Proof of Stake minting will generate around 1% on your staked coins a year (and this 1% is offset with destroyed transaction fees so the total circulation stays the same once all are mined).

      This has a big advantage of being basically immune to a 51% attack, far more energy efficient as anyone with a wallet can start minting and carries less risk of all the mining power going away or transaction fees going up a lot to keep miners on the network (plus probably centralisation of Bitcoin mining power over the years).

      Primecoin, which I also hold but I don’t think has the long term potential of Peercoin but is an interesting experiment into useful Proof of Work, you mine new coins by finding probable prime numbers of a certain length which can then be used to verify hashes.

      1. No volume at the moment, this is all on 500 – 1000 volume at Gox.

        Also $3m USD before price goes over $800/coin but $3.5m all the way down to $650 on the buy side.

        Very little buy depth on the market at GOX.

      2. From what you’ve said peercoin sounds really interesting. I’ll find some time to investigate that more. Sounds definately like it might be worth a punt. Good money drives out bad. At the moment bitcoin seems to be driving out fiat and precious metals. But maybe another crypto will drive out bitcoins. . .

      3. Yeah, I really like Peercoin as it does fix some future problems with Bitcoin (namely the energy consumption which is already pretty huge).

        http://www.peercointalk.org is where we all hang out and http://www.peercoin.net is the official site.

        Gold and Silver have just been dropping and dropping, lost some money spreadbetting the wrong way at $1300 on Gold. Can’t believe it has gone through and still going down, money is definitely leaving it!

      4. Gold and Silver look awful just now. I’m waiting to see when it looks like the down trend is reversed before considering any metals purchases. Planning to divert some bitcoin profits into gold and silver eventually however, but don’t think now is the time.

    1. MACD is always good 🙂 You need a combination of indicators really, and also remember it is easy to spot something in hindsight!

      I like to trade off resistance/support, moving averages and RSI.

    2. One I haven’t mentioned in my blog but i do look at is Stochastic RSI, not sure how it differs from normal RSI but it seems can be really good for timing an entry.

      1. Yeah I meant Stochastic (I was too lazy to type it all out).

        I like using a period of 8 rather than 14 as you get a much tighter / responsive indication which is good for picking an entry on the shorter ticks

        (I think this might be the most comments ever on one of your posts!)

  3. Great site,

    Why not consider making the charts with the BTCChina data? they seem to be the real drivers of the market now, no?

    THanks.

  4. Thanks for all the conversation 🙂 Andrew I’m using TradingView for my charts, really like it but main downside is it only has MtGox data for bitcoins. But you made a good point, MtGox is getting less and less good as approximation of entire bitcoin market.

    David i’ll have a look at those links later. cheers

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