Consolidation around $800

Time for a new post I reckon, but will have to be fairly brief as I’m really supposed to be doing other things. As you probably guessed if you read my last post ‘Another Fork’, I’m still focused on the last fork I posted, which was a fork linking the recent all time high to the bottom of the recent correction which went all the down below $500 briefly on Mtgox.

Heres the latest snapshot of that fork on a chart showing 1 hour candles. I’ve added more detail to the fork with new inner trendlines at half way points between the lines I had last time. Got to love the charting tools on TradingView.

To me it looks pretty clear that I managed to guess the slope correctly as the price seem to be following those lines pretty closely. There was a point were the price almost tested the levels of the old high and at same time tried to break into upper half of the fork. Looked like it had suceeded but then fell back into the lower half of the fork. Price has since consolidated roughly around the $800 level but in doing so is also moving lower in the fork.

In a way I quite like to see the price stabalise for a while, it almost feels a bit too unreal when it constantly marches upwards. I would like to see it stay within this fork however theres still a litle while ( a day or two) before it hits the bottom line of the fork if it keeps staying flat like this. Funny how doubts can creep in though, is that looking like a double top there? Sometimes its not easy to stay on a bull.

Edit: Also forgot to mention thanks for all the comments in the last post, thats the most comments I’ve had so far. Its a nice feeling having people stopping by to share info or just say hello. Cheers

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16 thoughts on “Consolidation around $800

  1. BTCChina was about 15% away from it’s all time high the second time over. Right now I cna’t help but think it looks as if it’s on a slow decline. I can’t help but feel that Mtgox might just be in limbo awaiting movement out of china… any thoughts?

  2. Hi Andrew, Do you have a good link for looking at BTCChina? I’ve just been having a glance on bitcoin charts but the analysis tools are very lacking on there and I don’t want to make conclusions based on inadequate analysis.

    Arbitrage should even out differences between exchanges. However as far as I know MtGox still has problems allowing users to make withdrawals in fiat. So I imagine prices to appear a distorted due to that ..

    I think price needs to consolidate after huge moves up. Slow move down isn’t in my thoughts at the moment (but I could well be wrong). I’m staying long myself.

    1. I’m liking the charts at bitcoinwisdom.com

      Yes I can attest to difficulty accessing fiat thru Mtgox, I had requested to cash out some in August and just yesterday I contacted them for the third time asking where it stands. I’m trying to withdraw USD, they say that it’s still not processed and they are doing it manually. Apparently if you have a Japanese bank account it’s not a problem, with Euro it’s a hassle and with North American it’s essentially non existent…. I don’t think it’s possible to take advantage of arbitrage unless you have bank accounts the world over and then you would be set back by the legacy banking fees… in my opinion of course….

      1. I confirm. I withdrawn euro in june, it took 4 weeks and 3 mails. Than I tried to withdrawn USD in july, i waited 7 weeks that I asked them to give my USDs back in my mtgox account. They needed only 1 day to do this ! My accounts are “managed” by banksters in SEPA zone.
        Arbitrage opportunity by Mtgox is too stressfull and money velocity is so low, you need a big amount of money to fuel up your system.

        One or two month ago Mtgox let angry people insulted them thru their facebook page. That was funny and I realized I wasn’t alone, waiting desesperatly my money back.

    2. MtGox sounds like a nightmare. Have you considered forwarding bitcoins somewhere else to sell them? I find localbitcoins is usually pretty good. Personally I don’t hold fiat or bitcoins on any exchange. I’m not very trustful of 3rd parties, I’ve already been burned by that.

      edit; bitcoin wisdom looks like a nice site. don’t think it allows me to draw lines on it though. Tradingview has spoiled me, can’t be bothered drawing on screenshots anymore.

      1. Of course I did ! And as we talked before in a previous post, BTC price is always higher in Mtgox because of their withdraw difficulties.

        Mtgox is a scam.
        1 they retain your fiat
        2 they pump up btc price (because of reson #1) and grab 0.6% fee (which is too much). So they charge you a big rate from an overvalued price!!!

  3. Heres an update to my fork.

    Still consolidating around the same price and moving in lower half of the fork. Got a nice bounce from the mid point of the lower quadrant just now though. Will be interesting to see how strong support at bottom of fork is when we get there.

  4. When do you think are we gonna be back on the “long term channel” ??.

    It seems we are very over it, and just watching the historic graph, this kind of Peak always seems to be something that in one month (more or less) returns to the regular track…

    I’m waitng for that to rebuy! 😀

    Maybe in 10 days we are on u$s 300 per BTC?

    Great site! Sorry for my english!

    1. Hi Gustavo thanks for visiting. Its a good question, but the answer is I don’t know.

      To be honest with you I’m still thinking prices more likely to get above $2000 than go down to $300 in that time frame, which is roughly the level of the 2011 peak on that long term channel chart.

      Good luck

      1. Mmmm, ok!

        But is still a peak, does it?

        Maybe 10 days was a too small time frame…. probably more like one or two months?

        I still think $2000 is too high….

        I don’t say it is not possible, but even if that value is reached…. will be only the maximum value in the current peak, and later will go down again.

        What I’m trying to guess is when, and to what value, will the price go down.

        Maybe something around u$s 400 at the begining of March 2014? (Again following a long term graph).

        Good luck to us all!!! 😀

    2. I know where you’re coming from. This does have a look of a mania about it and high chance we are significantly overpriced just now. Its something to think about. The long term channel may not remain valid indefinately but if we return to the top of it that would be in region of $300 to $400 i think. Its something to consider. Bottom of it is less than $100 !

    1. I think we could hit $1000 a bitcoin this week, although I expect some heavy selling if we do! Some big buy walls on GOX there.

      Did you pick up any PPC? Up from 0.0015 when I mentioned them to 0.004 today on BTC-E.

      1. Didn’t get round to it, whats the easiest way to get them? Despite my interest in bitcoins I’m actually a bit of a newbie when it comes to exhanges. I’m not a member of any exchanges as I normally use localbitcoins.

        If theres a way to swap bitcoin rather than fiat ?

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