I know I’m a bit of a perma bull but today I have a nagging feeling that I’m not looking at bearish possibilities enough. And I’m not really talking about the news from china either. But on technical side the way the bottom of the channel was breached is bothering me a little bit. In all honesty for the price to rise from a couple of hundred bucks to over a thousand in only a month or so.. Is it hard to imagine it has done this without getting ahead of itself a little too much and ready for further downside ?
Anyway, heres how the channel is looking on MtGox with 1hour candles.
The price is near the bottom of the channel but so far, since that last plunge, theres not much evidence the slope of the channel is influencing anything. It will be interesting to note if the bottom of the channel shows any support when or if the price drops to that level.
Maybe there is merit to the idea of looking at a new fork, something like this?
Perhaps theres even a (short term) trend reversal double top pattern being formed. I’ve marked an area of very strong horizontal resistance a few times but if that gets breeched then it would look like a double top and a trip down to $400 might not be so far fetched.
That would look like something like this.
But! Its bitcoins. How many times has it not listened to any bearish script?
Anyway thats enough of my angst.