Further falls likely

Well looks like my bearish angst was indeed justified. Price is down to about $860 as I write this and earlier fell out the bottom of that ‘new channel’ I had hopes for with no real resistance. Instead looks like its falling within the bearish fork I was looking at in my last post. So heres an update to that fork.

Not only that the possible double top formation looks like it has been confirmed too with the price falling below the valley between the tops. Not saying it has to, but if this plays out the target would be down below $500.

My own experience of this drop has been frustrating, having successfully predicted it, I decided I wanted to sell some of my stack but its taking ages for the transfer from my wallet to reach localbitcoins and still hasn’t got there yet, hours later. Is this because I didn’t set fees in my wallet? Or is the blockchain getting too unwieldy? It doesn’t usually take this long does it?

On that note I’m having some existential doubts about the whole scalability of bitcoins. The blockchain is now about 14G and will keep growing. Perhaps its time to convert some of this crypto money into real gold and silver?

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8 thoughts on “Further falls likely

    1. hehe if you want to get it right you will be on the sideline the whole time until it passes right by. I’d say set a happy target and stay content, this is not the last spike or drop by any means imo. Bitcoin has a long growth to maturity still ahead of it and more of the same will follow.

  1. The blockchain becomes unwieldy when there is a run like this. All the speculators want to cash in their satoshis at the same time, and (I’m not fully aware of just how the transactions flow) they all have to queue up.

    Eventually enough copies of bitcoind sort out the blockchain and agree on the transactions, but it takes longer than it does when the market is quiet.

    1. The transaction processing speed is determined by the difficulty which is a function of the total amount of processing speed chasing after block confirmations. If I understand correctly, the total number of transactions entered into a block will not effect the rate at which the blocks are generated/discovered and rewarded. ( as far as I understand, I stand to be corrected)

      1. Those bitcoins eventually did get transferred it took hours and hours. I adjusted my wallet to include a fee and then I did a second transfer to localbitcoins which was MUCH quicker. Might have been the fee, or maybe because the network had calmed down a bit. But I’ll be including the fee from now on anyway.

  2. The size of the block chain is not necessarily a problem as I understand. I have read several mentions that it can be truncated. In fact much of the protocol has already been altered as Bitcoin has grown to account for shortcomings/growing pains. From what I gather the protocol that sustains bitcoin is highly modifiable and it seems that there is nothing that can’t be done to improve it and keep it relevant as it grows. It sounds to me quite a robust and responsive creature.

    1. The thing thats causing me worry is what if the blockchain becomes too unwieldy for peer to peer connectivity and we need to start relying on more and more centralised servers to hold the blockchain for us. I’m worried that the decentralisation is under threat

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