Chinese Bear

For some reason BTCUSD in MtGox is frozen on the Trading View website, so no update to my bear versus bull forks. Not much to see there anyway to be honest, we appear to be in limbo, caught in no mans land, under the bull fork and above the bear fork, meandering aimless in the fog looking for direction… and stuff.

Which has prompted me to look at the chinese market, which I probably should be paying more attention to anyway. As discussed in comments recently (pointed out by Andrew), volume on Bitcoin China is much higher than MtGox. Happily the chinese market data is available on Trading View these days and not frozen in time like the MtGox one is.

So I’ve been playing around with a few ideas on this chinese market data and found this quite interesting fit on a bearish fork. Here’s the chart with 4 hour candles.

Not sure if I should read too much into this or not, but if China is leading the market just now, seems possible we are being lead down this bearish trend. Its something to keep an eye on at least.

3 thoughts on “Chinese Bear

  1. Hi Afbitcoins,

    Thanks for the analysis. Given that the BTC-C 24H volume is about 4x that of MtGox and 2x that of MtGox and Bitstamp combined, trends there certainly deserve a closer look.

    Take the analysis one step further, one should certainly ask the question: who exactly are generating such high volume in China? Currently, I believe most of that money comes from the “Wenzhou” gang, a group of affuluent market from the Wenzhou area of China that have large risk appetite. They are partially responsible for the rapid rising of real estate prices in China, and now they are shifting attention to Bitcoins.

    What this means is the Chinese money is highly speculative in nature — they are not in the for the long haul, at least not now. One therefore much watch out for any sign of correction there.

    1. There was a boradcast that I came across (on you tube I think) that talked about bitcoins in China. Essentially the story was that the average person on the ground has not heard of it and the majority of it is speculators/investors and techies.

    2. Thanks for that background, didn’t know that about whos been buying. I think you could be right about being on guard for a correction. I’m trying not to be too biased but hard for me to see much to be bullish about at the moment.

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