Some charts

Heres some updates to my charts, starting with MtGox bear fork on a chart with 4 hour candles

The strong rally during the last week moved the price up near the top trendline but there was no strength in the challenge to push through it. Looks like the fork is well established with trendlines providing resistance where you would expect it.

I have modified my chinese fork since the last post to a new updated one which has a better fit, so heres how the updated chinese fork looks, also with 4 hour candles.

There are similarities and differences between the chinese bear fork and the MtGox USD fork, both now using same points to define the fork. Chinese fork tested the bottom trendline last week whereas USD MtGox just made it below the half way trendline in the fork. However both are currently sitting roughly half way up the top half of their forks.

You might remember my double top predicition from a while ago, although there was a dead cat bounce the target has eventually been met, more or less, it looked like this.

There was a very brief spike down to my target area but I doubt this means the bear trend is over.

I think prices can easily return to $300 region or perhaps below that in this bear correction but have run out of time to show why I think that in this post. That is not trading advice.

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6 thoughts on “Some charts

  1. Pretty much ties up with my charts, I’ve been shorting BTC on a CFD with Plus500 the last week. Got caught out by the rally up on Thursday which wiped most of my gains from Wednesday (that was a very good day!) but still doing pretty well!

  2. Cycle-analysis says I’m looking for a new phase to get underway between Dec 25 and Jan 6. I’ll refer you to fractalmarketreport.com for education here. (I recommend the free one-month trial, so you can download and read the free “Special Reports”, and THEN make up your mind about continuing the subscription). To sum it up, I’d say it’s pretty much How to Ride a Bubble, and once you see the guy’s proprietary indicator at work (somewhat better than a stochastic), you can get a feel for it without his updates, IMO. Anyway — the cycles are based on an 86 period pattern, with specific temporal intervals within it to look for inflections/accelerations and phase shifts. No telling exactly what lies ahead. For the gist of the NEXT 86 days I’d put odds on a new ‘run’ up at 15%, a higher-grinding-consolidation at 20%, sideways consolidation at 35%, downward-consolidation at 20%, and 10% for a crash.

    I’ve identified 2 cycles in play here, kicked off by the Silk Road Reversal.
    http://screencast.com/t/ECHgwMswN

    I remain bullish/neutral. Full disclosure: I recently swapped all my BTC into QuarkCoin (www.qrk.cc) using an online exchange (cryptsy.com) because I believe QRK has a superior security algorithm and mining/inflation trajectory than BTC. Plus — with the low cost and ease of switching between the competing cryptos, even if BTC is what merchants accept at the register, nothing will stop people from holding something else until the point of sale.

    1. Given the announcement that overstock.com will be adopting Bitcoin as a payment method in the new year the prediction of dec25-jan6 might not be so much based on just charts….. This can again be big news and there might be speculation that it might force the hand of other large online retail vendors to follow suit. The cycles imo have been more so based on annoucements and speculation both the booms and busts. I feel that fitting a pattern is out of line in this manner.

      1. Andrew– you might read up about the cycle analysis before passing judgement about its predictive capacity; at least it might make your criticisms more relevant. You’re right that events and specs drive price changes (duh), but these things vary in significance and take time for the market to digest. So what these cycle patterns uncover is a sense of how ‘massive’ the rock is that just hit the proverbial pond…notice the title, ‘silk road RIPPLES’. Participants will also start to anticipate future events in a similar fashion: over time and in waves. The cycle analysis isn’t a great tool if you’re looking for a crystal ball, like I said, the next stint is up for grabs. Lower order trends always yield to higher order trends, until you get another shock that causes a shake-up. Overstock by itself is small potatoes compared to silk road by measuring the intensity of movement around those specific announcements. What we can say is that 86 days after silk road, that reality appears completely ‘baked in’ and prices are finding equilibrium (consolidation for >20 days now) at much higher prices. The online retail reality should sum up to much more but it has not yet formed, and I think there is a somewhat broad expectation of that already present. There is always room for surprises (thank g*d). With the lack of new, exciting news, my prediction is that BTC will mostly chop around looking to drift away from patient bulls, and perhaps test the conviction of recent momentum chasers. And in the meantime, other competing cryptos will probably continue cannibalizing some of BTC’s market cap. GL.

      1. Here’s a little different mark-up along with a third cycle I found.

        http://screencast.com/t/UsLYnf8gc

        And, here’s a weekly Silver chart from 2011 to show you this stuff works on every time frame and in any market.

        http://screencast.com/t/t5sk8w8hmY

        Obviously, when you aggregate the periods into larger pieces of time, it gets less precise because we’re making the intervals approximations based on irrational numbers — plus you have holidays etc when not much business gets done.

        All in all, interesting to say the least– and when used in conjunction with other techniques, quite powerful, IMO.

        Happy Holidays.

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