Ive been keeping an eye on the price throughout the day as it creeps closer and closer to a strong line of resistance which corresponds to the top of my MtGox bear fork. The last time this battle was fought with the top trendline of my fork the price was at about 900 dollars and here we are again, except this time the price is a little below 700 dollars.
Notice I have included momentum indicator on the bottom, it appears there is a divergence in the last two lows which I have marked with blue lines. So could the bearish momentum be fading? It looks as I write that the price is making a strong effort to get through this resistance and could be succeeding.
But if we are still under the influence of the chinese bear, what is the chinese bear fork looking like?
China is still way more bearish than the west from this evidence. Its almost as if MtGox wants to breakout and go to the moon, but China wants to continue crashing lower. Could this mean a fair bit of sideways choppy action?
As many of you know by now I often like to look at the long term log view for a bigger picture so heres an all time log view, not exactly the same as the long term channel I often look at but similar.
On this evidence there could be a way to fall yet. It is this view that has made me feel the correction could go below 300 dollars if we revert to a level near that trendline, or even overshoot below it.
To be honest I am staying on the fence just now, lower lows may or may not transpire. I don know and dont have a crystal ball. Personally I am starting to wonder about accumulating a few bitcoins here and there on dips but not thinking its going to the moon, even if MtGox breaks through this resistance.