Another bear

Without any preliminaries heres a couple of charts. First is MtGox with 4 hour candles showing double top, dead cat bounce and current ralley, which may or may not end up being another dead cat bounce..

I have shown a few key lines, the trend of my old bear fork in red, the trend of the current ralley with some green lines and a horizontal line of resistance in red which has previously acted as support. This attempt to break up through that horizontal resistance looks like quite a key battle to me. However the path to new highs and shooting to the moon doesnt look that easy even if it does break through. There are similar lines of horizontal resistance at higher levels. I would still rather be short than long at the moment.

This resistance also appear to coincide with the top of the regression channel I was looking at in my comments recently. I won´t pretend to be an expert at regression channels. Make of it what you will.

Happy New Year!

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9 thoughts on “Another bear

  1. Thanks for the continued analysis!

    As an aside to the valuation/investing part and seeing as how there are some very well versed compsci people here I’m wondering how the recent applebaum lecture might effect bitcoin? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vILAlhwUgIU specifically skipping ahead to 0:29:55 and quantumcopper capability? Could this be the kills witch for bitcoin blockchain fidelity?

    I watched that whole lecture and it was mind blowing(although the technical speak was way over my head). It is very evident that govt’s are not our friends, not just the NSA… There is no doubt in my mind that all nations are on this continuum or at least working toward/aiding this same goal, the only difference is how far along they are imo.

  2. Your horizontal line has just been perforated. The rally seems to be stronger that you thought!
    As I wrote on previous posts, since 12-26, I have a bullish feeling 😀
    Hope I’m not wrong.

    BTW, Happy new year. May this new year so fantastic to you as 2013 was to us (me, my friend and my new son).

  3. 1. The market concensus seems to be that the Chinese bear has been fully digested.

    2. News such as Fortress forming new fund / Colorado weed business accepting Bitcoin / startups getting ex-Goldman director on board / Overstock.com / SecondMarket founder’s statement have created furtile ground for the next round of speculation.

    3. And a word on China: Chinese funds are not necessarily denominated in RMB — a significant portion of Chinese funds are USD denominated and trading on Bitstamp / MtGox. In addition, Chinese funds that are in RMB are primarily trading on Huobi, which does not seem to offer API (so no datasource / ticker). These players really want the price to go above $1000 (about 6000 in RMB) again.

    Given the above, I have switched to bullish.

  4. Thanks for the comments guys, much appreciated.. Yes horizontal resistance i mentioned has been blown away quite emphatically. Again resistance broken much easier than i thought, not the first time. Bitcoins never follows the bearish script. Maybe its time for me to get over it and switch long again.

    1. I wasn’t teasing you af.
      You’re… about 95% accurate till I’m following you. You have good intuitions and good analysis very oftenly. Big up

  5. Forget about chart analysis my friend, just buy buy buy buy, buy while you can, soon who holds a single digit of bitcoin will have couple of thousands in is pocket. You can still buy 2 digits with $10K, you are still in time. In the future 0.001 will be worth $1K, buy at any price now, it doesn’t matter just buy while you can or you will regret.

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