Bull mode!!!

So much for that rising wedge! Urgh do these things never go down or what?! I’m getting quite confunded by the continuing strength of the rally. Though I’m happy for the bulls who have been telling me to get back in for a while now. Honestly I am. No really I am.

Heres how the demolished rising wedge looks.

That is at least the third time, where I’ve expected a bear phase to begin which has instead shot upwards. When do I take the hint? I’ll say its third time lucky and put my bull mode back on. However I am cautious that the China bear has more legs than we giving credit and may yet rear again.

On occasions in the past I’ve wondered if a buyer of size steps in at key moments to keep this thing inflating? Usually I have been happily sitting long on those occasion and not too concerned. This time, as a bear, has been more frustrating… if that is happening.

Until recently I have accepted the face value story of bitcoins without too much concern, which is that an unknown person has created this new type of money which cannot be devalued through inflation and is going to ultimately bring freedom from debt based money and peace and prosperity to humanity blah blah. But what if not? Facebook started off looking like a nice way to share news with friends until it started to look more like a monitoring system for the state to take everything we public gullibly give them. It doesnt seem so black and white anymore with bitcoins to me, could a government, say Japan, be behind it? When the logarithmically increasing length of the blockchain eventually becomes too big for peer to peer network is it going to lead to more and more concentrated and centralised control. Is this how it was designed, to start by looking decentralised to attract us in?

The reason I mention this is because I think these doubts are one of the things holding me back with bitcoins compared to previously. Precious Metals, although hated at the moment will have their moment, maybe not for a fiew more years. However with precious metals I have no doubts that the state has every transaction publically available. Precious Metals ‘feel’ like wealth.

The strategy which I recommend which I haven’t really expressed before is to take profit from bitcoins and periodically use it to stack real long term wealth Gold and Silver. The bitcoins are wildly profitable but perhaps won’t have the long term shine of precious metals. I hope people will at least think about some of this. I’d welcome conversation as there may easily be things I’m overlooking.

Thanks

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18 thoughts on “Bull mode!!!

  1. So you finally capitulate… ๐Ÿ™‚

    Forget about chart analysis my friend, just buy buy buy buy, buy while you can, soon who holds a single digit of bitcoin will have couple of thousands in his pocket. You can still buy 2 digits with $10K, you are still in time. In the future 0.001 will be worth $1K, buy at any price now, it doesn’t matter just buy while you can or you will regret.

  2. Hi AF-Bitcoins:
    Thanks for your thoughts and the good chart analysis.
    I share your doubts in a way about the bitcoin story.

    What concerns me most is, that bitcoin is mostly hoarded and that hoarding will probably never stop because of the deflationary desing of bitcoin.

    Many new buyers come into the market and buy some bitcoins, which are not used for
    consumation but withdrawn from circulation. So the liquidity of bitcoins in circulation is beeing reduced more and more over time!!

    Everyone is hoarding and waiting for higher prices. But how can a money that is mostly only hoarded be THE replacement for dollar and euro?

    This is – in my humble opinion- a significant flaw in the bicoinstory, that at some point in time will be obvious to everyone.

    Concerning hoarding (out of greed) and the implications for bitcoin in the longterm, you might find that article probably very interesting and worth reading:

    http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/blog/2013/12/12/these-three-graphs-prove-that-bitcoin-is-a-speculative-bubble

    Happy new year 2014,
    ZE

    1. Agree that everyone is hoarding. At least on local bitcoins it seems the big sellers have disappeared.

      edit- however i dont think hoarding is a bad thing for money I consider that a banker propogated myth. People will be encouraged to save (a good thing). Inflation is theft.

      1. You’re right. Everybody’s hoarding.
        Me, i’m hoarding too but I want to spend few. At this moment, not enought people accepts BTC.
        Everytime I wanna buy something in the internet, I ask first if BTC is accepted, 99% says “nop sorry”.

        See how it’s hugely hoarded :
        http://btc.ondn.net/

        #1 address gets 1.2% of total BTC !
        See the list and a quick mental math calculations gives this. 20 richest BTC addresses own between 8 and 10 % of total amount of BTC !!! So concentrated repartition !!!

        Actually BTC is now a storage value as gold is. Hope it will be a real payment for goods or services too ; as gold was.

        BTW : I wrote nobody accepts bitcoin but You, af accept donation. But you havn’t received any BTC yet. I gonna give you something one day, sure. Who says BTC is totally anonymous ? See your rank on : http://btc.ondn.net/search

      2. update ;
        Total BTC created : 12,228,475 BTC
        100 richest adresses own 2,583,540 BTC. = 21 % of total !!!!!!!

        How many guys have these addresses ????

      3. @Artiti It is not known how are the holders. The biggest wallet however, is owned by the FBI; it was the former wallet of the founder of Silk Road. It is rumored , that many of the richtest holders are miners from the early days and probably also some bitcoin exchanges. Somewhere else I did read, that approx 1000 adresses hold nearly 50% of all bitcoins outstanding. The 94,7% of the smallest addresses hold only 37 bitcoins.

        Consider this article in the Spiegel Magazine (Germany) and use google translator for english translation. It shows, how the riches are distributed in the bitcoin world:

        http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/digitale-waehrung-der-bitcoin-boom-in-fuenf-infografiken-a-936136.html

        ZE

      4. Interesting how many bitcoin address have ‘almost’ exactly 1000 bitcoins in them ..

        btw I think i have received a donation as I recall. unless i later changed the address i used it should show that.

  3. I bought a pretty big amount of silver and gold (compared to my purse) when silver cost 40USD/ounce…
    Once bitten, twice shy.

    So I’ve already this kind of assets in my possessions and I bought few for my son too.
    Maybe 10 or 15% of all your assets in metal is clearly enought.

    Keynes said “gold standard is already a barbarous relic”. I would say people who owned too much precious metals are “barbarians”. I met too much people who trust only in gold so narrow minded and arriรจre-gardists. I don’t think and I don’t want that this kind will be “les nouveaux riches”.

    My strategy when BTC price will be high enought (hope it will) is to convert profit into a house.
    Even if in my country, house price is still in “levitation”.

    You’re worried about length of the blockchain. You might be right, I have no answer rightnow but sure I will study this issue.

    I’m pretty sure that one day and probably soon, western governments will declare “nuclear war” on cryptocurrency. And that is the biggest risk of bitcoin viability.
    – third party for BTC exchange strictly forbidden,
    – BTC exchanges seized
    – big propaganda “BTC user = gangsters or pedophile (or both)”
    – internet control with threats if you IP address got busted using BTC wallet or something.

    1. If governments dare to do that they will just shoot themselves in the foot. That’s repression and it will be another drop in the glass for them to collapse.

      US dollar bills are used everyday for money laundering, paying to hitmans, drug dealing, human trafficking, any bad examples you can image, yet the US dollar is broadly accepted. And an exchange of US dollar notes cannot be tracked in any way since it is a personal transfer hand to hand.

      Saying that “big propaganda โ€œBTC user = gangsters or pedophile (or both)โ€” is like saying that we should shutdown the internet because there crime on it, let them try and you will see what happens ๐Ÿ™‚

      So all the governments can kiss our asses, we are the people, governments are just there to represent the people, if they don’t do it well, we, the people, will kick them out.

      You don’t need to go far to see examples of this: Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, Brazil Riots, Ukraine riots, Taiwan riots, etc…

      So governments, watch out, we, the people, all together can f*ck you up!

      1. About US dollar bills you’re complety right !

        Even we can kick the governments out, system is always standing upright !

        Arab spring, OK, accessing to democracy takes a long time, sometime few decades and we are not at the end of the story. But 3 years after, situation is barely worst than it was before. See “coups d’ร‰tat” in Egypt, chaos in Libya and Syria. Situation has beencontrolled with violence in Yemen, Algeria and Marocco (not relayed by mainstream except Yemen) and so on. Maybe Tunisia is moving forward a bit by changing constitution next week. They wanted freedom and employment. Have their demands been granted ? Unfortunatlely not yet.

        Occupy wall street… And so what ? What things changed ?

        Brazil riots… Is the government changed ? No. They were protesting for many things but essential against the expensive cost-of-living. Yesterday President Dilma Rousseff was considering issuing a decree to open the internal flight market in order to prevent abusive price hikes during soccer world-cup. Woooooo ! That’s gonna change the world !

        If you think you f*** up your government once a year or two by inserting a ballot in a box, actually it f**** you up the rest of the year.

        With an efficient propaganda and spreading fear, goverment (means system) can do everything it wants. See numerous examples in the History… I won’t point out one, don’t want reach godwin point with only 4 or 5 comments ๐Ÿ˜‰

        Well, very off topic and very far away from technical analysis !
        Apologize

      2. What I meant was that when people want they unify themselves for a common goal, the goal of Occupy Wall Street was just to show a discontent with the economic situation, not an aggressive movement. If the goal is to overthrown a government by the majority of the people then it will happen… but yeah off the record topic lets move on.

  4. A real war against the powers that be hasn’t happened since 1812… in 1913 the federal reserve act was implemented, since then the rest have been puppet wars initiated by the US…. not saying that to offend but we will never again see a civil uprising against a modern regime. The system of governance is entrenched, the populace oblivious to the economic/banking situations and understanding of economics all enabled by a purchased main stream media and biased/nonexistent education system, in the setting of a nuclear-super power military federal government.

    The “people” are not on even footing with their masters anymore.

    …but yes lets get back to some analysis/insight ๐Ÿ˜€ THanks folks

  5. Thanks for all the comments and apologies some took a little while to approve. Topic is fine with me btw.

    Looks like there might be a slight dip to buy into just now. If it falls into the bottom of the channel might fall further and looks like a good buying opportunity. Channel I’m referring to is this, which I’ll talk more about in my next post.


    https://www.tradingview.com/x/fgmDY2s1/

    1. I’ll get a chart up later, but I’ve been watching the order book and price since last night.

      I think the high of $1,100 could have been a proper double top (enough time has passed now to qualify as one) and the sell volumes from there all the way back down to $1,000 were huge.

      As I’m writing this we’re down at $970 with bearish MA/MACD on both 30 minute and 1 hour ticks. Looks like 4 hour and 1 day might go that way too as the momentum has come off them.

      460 BTC to go back above $1,000 and only 275 BTC to drop to $950.

    1. Hi Paul thanks for stopping by, I’ve seen some of DanV ideas on TradingView before, he is persuasive and there are reasons I’ve mentioned before where I think bitcoins look like a bubble. However as the title of my post, I feel the correction could be finished and we are in a new up trend. If it goes that low I will gladly buy a heap of cheap bitcoins though, I still have some powder to burn.

      My analysis is usually extremely simple, I try to find the trend get in early and hold. Then when the trend starts changing I re-evaluate the position. At the moment I feel we are in a bullish channel. Recent dip hasn’t yet changed that.

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