So much for that rising wedge! Urgh do these things never go down or what?! I’m getting quite confunded by the continuing strength of the rally. Though I’m happy for the bulls who have been telling me to get back in for a while now. Honestly I am. No really I am.
Heres how the demolished rising wedge looks.
That is at least the third time, where I’ve expected a bear phase to begin which has instead shot upwards. When do I take the hint? I’ll say its third time lucky and put my bull mode back on. However I am cautious that the China bear has more legs than we giving credit and may yet rear again.
On occasions in the past I’ve wondered if a buyer of size steps in at key moments to keep this thing inflating? Usually I have been happily sitting long on those occasion and not too concerned. This time, as a bear, has been more frustrating… if that is happening.
Until recently I have accepted the face value story of bitcoins without too much concern, which is that an unknown person has created this new type of money which cannot be devalued through inflation and is going to ultimately bring freedom from debt based money and peace and prosperity to humanity blah blah. But what if not? Facebook started off looking like a nice way to share news with friends until it started to look more like a monitoring system for the state to take everything we public gullibly give them. It doesnt seem so black and white anymore with bitcoins to me, could a government, say Japan, be behind it? When the logarithmically increasing length of the blockchain eventually becomes too big for peer to peer network is it going to lead to more and more concentrated and centralised control. Is this how it was designed, to start by looking decentralised to attract us in?
The reason I mention this is because I think these doubts are one of the things holding me back with bitcoins compared to previously. Precious Metals, although hated at the moment will have their moment, maybe not for a fiew more years. However with precious metals I have no doubts that the state has every transaction publically available. Precious Metals ‘feel’ like wealth.
The strategy which I recommend which I haven’t really expressed before is to take profit from bitcoins and periodically use it to stack real long term wealth Gold and Silver. The bitcoins are wildly profitable but perhaps won’t have the long term shine of precious metals. I hope people will at least think about some of this. I’d welcome conversation as there may easily be things I’m overlooking.