Trendlines and other ramblings

Starting with Bitstamp again, which may become my default bitcoin market to look at, heres a 4 hour chart, changed somewhat since the last one I posted.

In similar vein to my last post I’m still thinking along the lines of a wedge pattern constraining the price. Blue line is the same base line of the wedge as my last post, red line has been modified to better show the slope of the down trend I think. Also added a parallel second red line showing current bear channel on shorter timescale.

I’ve also added quite an intriguing fork which seems to fit the data points quite well. The fork hasn’t provided much support, in fact we are below it now, but does seem to have some influence on price still.

I feel that a break up out of the wedge is more likely than bitcoins falling below that blue line but of course I could be wrong.

Back to Gox and my ‘up channel’, on 4 hour chart.

Ah well, so much for that channel. Price is now pushing below my bottom trendline. Its Jamie Dimon’s fault, the JP Morgan CEO apparently spoiled my channel with some comments about bitcoin being a poor store of wealth, he timed it well, just to annoy me.

Still at the moment I’m at ease being back long bitcoins. It feels right somehow.

As a bit of a diversion, heres quite an interesting comparison of some other cryptos, all versus US dollar and all on same price scale.

At the top in grey is Litecoin, Novacoin in blue, Namecoin in pink and Peercoin in azure blue. I didn’t include bitcoins because on that price scale it dwarfs the rest too much, but more or less they all seem to follow each others move but to greater or lesser extents. In fact I think they are all following bitcoin, which you can’t see from that chart. Peercoin seems to be getting ready to overtake Namecoin. Its a shame theres not more data for more crypto currencies. Theres quite a myriad of them these days.

On that note, I can’t vouch for accuracy of the data on this link but it has a fascinating chart comparing many crypto coins here, well worth a browse http://coinmarketcap.com/

Edit: updates in comments

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6 thoughts on “Trendlines and other ramblings

    1. Obvious pivot. If it breaks the topside first, I’d look for a relatively quick subsequent failure. Not a bad level but very probably not THE line. Energy still dissipating,

    2. I think the market expects a higher valued bitcoin this year, but new dollars coming in are barely keeping up with new coins being mined and sold. My guess is we may see a drop in value to the 600s but i think it will be short lived as every bitcoin holder is ready to double down for the year if there are any major dips.

      There just isn’t any obvious new bad news forthcoming as China is priced in and we are another year away before USA or Europe could pose a negative news threat. It is more likely to have positive news than negative at this point.

      I am watching and waiting and will by more on any dip. i am holding all for now

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