I’m staying with Bitstamp for my analysis as MtGox is really too divergent from other USD markets, is artificially high because fiat funds cannot be released and besides I’m liking the way my trendlines fit on the bitstamp data. In a way its surprising that so many analysts are still using MtGox more or less exclusively, I guess habits can be hard to break.
So heres my latest Bitstamp chart with 4 hour candles.
Quite a lot has happened recently, the falling wedge was tested at the bottom then ralleyed and broke to the upside. However another black swan as mentioned in my previous post then caused a mini price plunge, taking us below the blue line. However look at that recovery! The strength of the rebound has done enough to persuade me that the market has turned bullish, and tempted me to buy the dip. My suspicion is that the bears are almost finished and that the green trend lines which originate from the fork I’ve plotted above will start holding support and price will begin to slowly creep upwards.
Staying with the bullish idea a little bit longer heres another fork which I’ve plotted on an All Time Log chart. Its MtGox this time, (will probably make a Bitstamp version if I get around to it). The candles are each 1 month.
Does that look bullish or does that look bullish ? Not many red candles on that chart! The purple line is quite a simple line joining the initial price when bitcoins were first traded to the most recent price. The fork idea is a bit of fun in a way but at the moment we are just above the middle of it. Bottom of the fork is about $275 top is somewhere over $2100. Even if we just follow the trend, new highs may come our way as early as March. Time will tell, but I’m content to hold long for now.
As always any trades you may make based on my opinions are made at your own risk.