Still wedged in

As quick update, heres latest bitcoin chart, 4 hours candles from Bitstamp market data.

Previous wedge is shown with what is now a red dashed line. New upper boundary shown in red solid line. Price still probably to be supported by the blue line or red dashed line which it is above. Although price did fall below the blue line, driven by the Bitinstant arrests it appears that was too low and quickly sprung back up.

All this means consolidation is continuing at this approximate level. I still like idea of rally afterwards but market is quiet just now, unless big news event drive things rally could take a long time to pick up steam for further parabolic moves.

edit: Bumped the following up from the comments..

Been playing around with the fib retracement tool, blue line on the above chart looks like the 0.5 line, where I’ve added a blue line here too. Will be quite significant if that doesn’t hold, could eventually drop to $670 or further..

If that happens I’ll probably just hold until the eventual recovery. On longer timescale any purchase now will look cheap eventually I’d say.

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11 thoughts on “Still wedged in

    1. True.

      Where i have blue line looks like strong support too though, time will tell which will win out.

      If blue line doesn’t hold price could retrace down another 100 bucks I’d say

  1. Just wondering what impact the Chinese have right now. Sure, internet is happening 24/7, but even on the interwebs holidays and such can have impact. Chinese businesses have been slowed due to their New Year holidays. Starting next week they should be back to business as usual, whatever that usual is now after the Bitcoin surgery performed by the Chinese government. Will the return of business have an impact? I could check the Chinese exchanges now, of course, to see if they are quieter then usual, but then, I leave that up to other people and I simply read their blogs ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. But I wait until people tell me in the comments !!! Lol

      I’ve been assuming China is more or less priced in by now, will have a look at BtcChina later when i get the chance

      1. Looks like BTChina are accepting deposits again which I think caused the spike that we saw around 3-4pm (GMT). Bloody annoying that I was in a meeting and had cancelled my buy orders as I had no idea if we were going to fall a bit or rise a bit.

        Taken a small loss on that! Hate losses ๐Ÿ˜€

        It will be interesting to see if the volume picks up in China again, holidays at the moment from what I know with new year so next week could see some big gains if China piles back in. Especially with the $150 promotion that BTChina are running.

  2. In mid Dec I called for a phase change to initiate the last week of Dec/1st week Jan — and we have seen it, as the market as gone from high energy parabolic to quiet sideways consolidation. After this many days of consecutive quiet — I would expect some amplitude to return, perhaps as early as next week, but nothing that eclipses what we observed last fall, until mid April. Once everyone settles with the tax man April 15, we might see a new trend kick-off. Never short a dull market!

    1. yes a phase change is a nice way to describe it. Wild oscillations have damped down, frequency of my posts has declined. won’t be dull for too long, your timescale sounds pretty good to me.

      1. Those lines show the slope of a fork I’ve plotted which I believe may be influencing where the rallys and dips end. So far its not providing any support for a bigger rally but I’ve been keeping an eye on it anyway.

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