Heres a look at Bitstamp with 1hr candles. Have zoomed out a bit so the April 2013 bubble can be seen next to the December one.
First that resistance. I have a very obvious line marked in red going from the second peak of the double top trending down through subsequent dead cat bounce tops. So far this is constraining any bullish attempts for rally. The huge move up during the Ukraine crisis failed to get bitcoin above that trend.
I’m also persisting overlaying the fib retracement on the chart which shows strong looking support around $520. Twice that has been penetrated and price fallen to roughly $400, once on the collapse of the bubble and recently with the ugly death of MtGox. I’ll be rather surprised if the downtrend takes us below $500 again though.
Based on eyeball comparison of April bubble with the December bubble I’d say the wild price gyrations are coming towards an end now. I’m expecting that red resistance line will be broken soon enough and maybe some kind of gradual rally but it could be quite a while until we are back over $1000. There is still possibility final capitulation didn’t actually occur during the MtGox and bearish tendencies could regain control for a while later on asd happened in July 2013 prior to the start of the huge rally.
For posterity heres a last look at my long term channel with MtGox data, log chart.
MtGox is no more, it managed to drop right back into my long term channel but its not the death of bitcoin. The baton has now passed on to Bitstamp, BTC-e and others. Will these exchanges prove trustworthy? Or as with MtGox will temptation or poor security or government interference get in the way?