Fallen through support

Just a quick one really to show updated chart from my last Crystal Ball post, as per usual looking at Bitstamp market price.

I have same lines of support and resistance shown as last time. Very clear that price is following that resistance trend downwards at the moment. In last day or so have fallen about 4% and below my first horizontal support which was just above $600.

Next horizontal support looks to me to be around $520 price level.

Nothing really changed from my previous analysis in which I stated about a month and half of further down trend is possible, which indeed seems to be the way its going just now. I still think new highs by July is possible but obviously can’t promise anything. This isn’t trading advice.

Thats all for now.

13 thoughts on “Fallen through support

  1. Thanks for the post and the update !

    Have you followed the litecoin recently ? it looks like it has its own life but the general trend seems to follow bitcoin’s. What do you think ?

    1. I haven’t look at Litecoin for a while. You’re right, thats very interesting, litecoin looks strong just now. Looks a bit like its leading bitcoin at the moment. I’ll have another look later, supposed to be working just now 😀

  2. that “support line” was so minor I would have been surprised if it won out against that downward resistance line going back 4 months

    1. Thanks for the charts Artiti. Indeed looks like another resistance line lower down. That fib retracement level between the red and yellow looks like we agree where horizontal support might be, i have marked roughly at $520.

      Whats also interesting is the ‘semaphore’ pattern, the tops are a downward sloping line and the bottoms are a steeper downwards sloping line. Its like the opposite of a wedge were lines get wider instead of closing. I was looking at that recently, supposedly it is quite rare and usually bearish and chaotic. I’m not reading too much into it at the moment but just thought would mention in passing.

      1. Interesting observation. So I guess not only are we in a downward trend, but another spike down is not out of the cards and it may even spike below 400.

      2. This is in reply to Jean-Philippe. That site says $100 bitcoin is a possibility. I think if price reaches that bitcoin is over. Wouldn’t that take us out of the long term bull trend?

  3. Purely by looking at these charts you could say another spike down to even lower low is possible. Even if it fell to $100 it wouldn’t mean the end of bitcoin, although it might mean the end of bitcoin being perceived as a store of value and it could start being looked on more as just a payment means. It would probably also mean that a new crypto would have a chance to become the market leader.

    however I don’t think there is much further left in this bear trend. Heres that log chart I posted recently

    To me it looks like $520 might be roughly where the bottom ends up being. Unless the powers that be can rustle up another bitcoin sequence of bad news to try and take it down further, it may reach $400 again. (Which didn’t work with silk road). I think theres a chance quite violent up moves might take everyones breath away later this year or early next year. (But remember only invest what you can afford to lose).

    Heres a closer view of the log chart

    The price where the red down trend crosses the bottom of that channel is at about $540. (Silk road take down did get price further down so there is always the chance something like that could happen), eg what if Bitstamp gets hacked, funds stolen next.. ? As bitcoin becomes more desirable the more risk of theft there is. Which is why I say don’t store them on a website somewhere.

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