Falling bitcoin

With bitcoin price now down to about $450 on Bitstamp and currently sitting BELOW my log channel I’ve been looking at lately, perhaps is it time for another look at some charts. In todays post I’ll focus on the log view.

First heres that log chart I just mentioned, updated. Hopefully more or less accurately, I had to recreate it after tinkering about with it earlier. Chart is showing 1 week candles.

Just as I was a bit surprised by the way we dropped through $520 support level as I talked about in last post, I’m now surprised how easily have fallen through bottom of that log channel. Its annoying, I liked the hypothesis that the log channel support the price and form a bit of a bottom. My crystal ball said new highs by July!

If I take the bitstamp log chart and zoom out then vandalise it with some lines and channels and forks. I can make something that looks like this, again its a log chart with 1 week candles.

It shows all the bitstamp data which goes back as far as end of 2011 but not far enough to show the really big 2011 bubble unfortunately. I can’t get the MtGox data on TradingView anymore. Orwell was right. History being erased!!!

You’ll note I have another channel which is not so steep, on which I’ve very optimistically added a bullish fork to the top of it. Perhaps or probably its not wise to pay too much attention to that fork, I’ve an overenthusiastic bull at times.

From this perspective you may think of the April 2012 bubble as part of the same bubble which eventually reached over $1000 rather than two seperate bubbles. If price was to fall back down into that channel, (which I’m not sure but might correspond closely to the old ‘long term channel’ I used to look at), then the price would have fallen down to about $150. That would hurt.

More than once I’ve stated that I will be surprised if price falls below $400 but the way things are going now I’d probably be surprised if it doesn’t. Lots to ponder at the moment, primarily how far is this correction going to go? If I was sitting with fiat to spend I’d be quite happy to continue watching price fall. I’m not at all tempted to sell into this drop though. Will bring some further analysis later but for now I’m calling it a day.

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4 thoughts on “Falling bitcoin

  1. Thanks again for the update, I was expecting one as I saw the price going below the $520 level … šŸ™‚

    By the way, you have the history on bitcoinwisdom.com for mtgox BTC/USD.

  2. I’m not selling into this fall, I sold into some of the falls in early Jan but quite happy with my last ‘buy in’ price even I do have fewer BTC now!

    Going to try to pick the bottom, I think it’s got a bit more to go possibly down to $250 but hopefully no lower than $380-400 to put some more fiat in which has been sat in my other trading account not doing much!

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