Testing times

Bitcoin price has continued falling and is down over 10% today, sitting just under $400 on Bitstamp. Heres my latest Bitstamp chart with 1 day candles showing how it looks.

I wonder if todays big move down is fuelled by speculators who see the 50 day moving average falling below the 200 day moving average? Or maybe there is some bad bitcoin news I haven’t heard yet. Anyway, we are actually sitting below my 3rd level of horizontal support which I identified some time ago. One can argue the support may be slightly under that where I’ve added another thin dotted line.. will it hold ? It is being tested right now.

If that level doesn’t hold, maybe the previous all time high of the April peak is next level.. hard to say. I haven’t marked them on the chart but some indicators I’ve looked at, eg bolinger bands and MACD look to be pointing to bitcoin being oversold at the moment. I think there is chance of this level holding but I wouldn’t like to quote any odds. Almost expecting some authorities somewhere to hit another exchange or something though to try and drive it down further.

As a diversion from bitcoin, I don’t often post about litecoins but I have been looking at litecoin charts a little recently heres a corresponding litecoin chart with 1 day candles

Litecoins appears to be more volatile, which considering the extreme volatility of bitcoin is quite something to behold. Today litecoin is down over 16%. Unlike bitcoin, litecoin appeared to break through its main resistance level originating from the price peak, however that hasn’t been enough to prevent bitcoin continuing to lead it down.

To delve a bit further into litecoin heres a chart showing the ratio of litecoin over bitcoin.

On this chart a the line moving higher shows that litecoin is rising in value relative to bitcoin and falling line shows litecoin losing value compared to bitcoin.

What leaps out on this chart is those two whopping green candles where litecoin suddenly spikes extremely high around the time of the April peak and the December peak. I’ve been considering doing a ratio swap of bitcoin into litecoin for a while now, and at some point probably will, but based on the way this looks to be trending litecoin will probably fall further for a while yet.

If you are long on bitcoin I’d say hang in there, for me the risk of selling is more than the risk of holding for longer term.

4 thoughts on “Testing times

    1. Thanks for the link. China bans bitcoins.. again. Fits in quite neatly with this bit I wrote

      “Almost expecting some authorities somewhere to hit another exchange or something though to try and drive it down further.”

      Right on queue. The authorities seem to time the attacks to push through key technical areas. Or its co-incidence, each time.

  1. Usually, people say “Don’t miss the train” or the boat when rally starts.
    But your charts show that LTC is like a rocket. It’s possible to run or speed up your step on the plateform if you want to catch the train or the ship leaving.
    The problem with skyrockets is there is no countdown. You have to get in before, then fasten your seatbelt and hold on tight!

    Thanx for these charts, very interesting.

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