Testing trendlines

In last post I highlighted the lower pink trendline as key line to watch. Jury out but it looks like it was briefly broken but may have held afterall. Bitcoin is currently sitting back above that line.

Heres bitstamp with 4 hour candles

Zooming out to chart with 1 day candles showing last two bubbles gives another perspective on that pink channel. If the pink channel holds for a few months we would see steady gains but might not reach new all time highs until next year. Although when does bitcoin stay in any channel for a length of time, particularly in linear price scale?

Eyeballing the flat period after the last years April bubble I wonder if the pink channel is about to fail and we enter a gradual grind down. That last test was not really convincing although in the end won out. Will it pass the next test? Or might it end up looking a bit like the area I have sketched in after the last April peak with a question mark? If that comparison has any merit it could be quite a long boring flat period still in store for bitcoin.

However, for yet another perspective I have been playing with log chart again. As you probably know I did not like the way my beloved log channel failed, so my solution is simple, I made a new log channel!

This time I have defined the slope by the last two peaks rather than the points I previously used on bottom of troughs. Creating a channel this way gives a new bottom trendline which we are still sitting quite well above. If this situation plays out a bit like the arrows I drew in then the slow grind down after the pink channel fails might not last as long as feared.

In the end I could just as well scatter some tea leaves and try and interpret them, but drawing lines on charts is fun. My prognosis is that likely to see the pink channel fail, then enter a boring grind downwards. Eventually the patient may well be rewarded with spectacular moves up.

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