Bitcoin fear and doubts

Apologies for not posting for a while.. perhaps I’m in Cloak shock. Cloak is having a total and utter wipeout! However thats a subject for perhaps my next post. This one will be a bitcoin post.

So bitcoin, heres how its looking on my chart.. As usual for my bitcoin posts, I’m using Bitstamp data. This chart has 1 day candles on it.

This chart shows the very familiar shape of most recent bubble and subsequent action on linear price scale, including all the usual dead cat bounces and stuff like that. Maybe you recall the fork I drew in last time, which arguably is looking fairly valid by now. The price managed to hold along the bottom of the fork for a while creeping upwards, but not at all convincingly I have to say, then fell through and is currently bouncing in an area I drew in parallel support somewhat below.

I have stated I expect a grind lower in bitcoin and I suppose this is fitting the picture I had in mind. I think we might have a bounce from here, but in general I think the grind lower is probably going to continue after any bounce. I can imagine prices grinding bulls into submission in fact.

I nearly wrote a bearish post recently entitled ‘Poised to drop’ then refrained, I was imagining big drops, not the small drop we’ve seen last few days. But still nagging bearish feelings remain. Maybe this is that post afterall… Anyway, my journey into looking at alt-coins has lead me to use bitcoin wisdom website more often than I used to. Maybe the more limited set of tools compared to trading view has made me look with a different perspective or perhaps the extremely volitile crypto alt-coin markets I’ve dabbled with lately have done it but anyway I came up with this chart, again bitstamp data this time on log scale.

The chart is quite self explanitory. There is a log trend and there is the huge bubble, with price still sitting overvalued above it. I am not giving any trading advice here just sharing some thoughts and emotion. Yes bitcoin is huge, I have been a big fan since it was less than $20 for a bitcoin. But are we still in a huge bubble like that chart implies? Or is it the natural shape of the adoption curce? and next stop is $4000? I’m sure I could come up with a bullish chart to show that. Lots of questions, no answers.

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4 thoughts on “Bitcoin fear and doubts

  1. Haven’t commented in a while, but I think we’ve broken below the support on the daily charts. I’m currently sitting bearish with my short term target in the $400 – 440 range and medium term at $250 – 300. I think we’ll see the first in the next week and unless there is a big reversal we’ll be at $300 shortly after.

    I suspect there will then be a big bounce, VC and hedge fund interest hasn’t waned but the volumes are low on the exchanges and it doesn’t take much to lower the price (selling pressure from merchants and miners will do that). Too much uncertainty at the moment as to where the price will go next for anyone to commit serious funds!

  2. Good to see you back AF !

    Want to write down some thoughts.

    ‘Course there many doubts and fears over bitcoin. What I see is we’re seeing right now the climax of that stupid “planned economy” paradigm. there are so many bad news coming from the world : conflicts in Syria, Irak, Ukrain, central African (republic), Israel-Palestine, Missouri etc.
    economic bad news : negative Japan GPD “growth” rate, bank bankrupcy in Portugal, EU stagflation, more than 46 million Americans depend on programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and so on.

    With all these things, I tend to think that, in a global economic way, in the next few years coming, we won’t live in a wealthy economy (at all). In a geopilitical way, I think we haven’t lived in a so insecured world since 1940.

    So what is happening at the end of the day ?
    – stock market indexes are skyrocketting,
    – gold price stagnation,
    – crude oil under $100,
    – bond interest rates have never been so low and debt never been so high.

    This is totally crazy ! ! !

    Back to a normal and fair equilibrium will coming.

    Another way to broom off fears and doubts and be confident about bitcoin future :
    http://www.exploringmarkets.com/2014/08/2-charts-to-entirely-explain-bitcoin.html?utm_content=buffer7f3ae&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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