Heading down

In my last post I finished with a look at bitcoin price heading to hopefully bounce off the top of the long-ish term log channel. This post will start with that updated chart.

Without any ceremony price looks a bit like it is dropping or has already dropped through the top trendline which we’ve been above since the April 2013 bubble took off, except for very brief spike in silk road panic. Maybe its still too early to call but if bitcoin is going to bounce off from here it better start looking a bit more convincing and do it quick.

If bitcoin is falling through that trendline, or already has then that could mean price is not going to take off any time soon, but more likely continue lower possibly for quite some time yet to eventually meet the lower trendline somewhere near $200.

Not jumping to conclusions quite yet but for first time in quite a long time might be considering selling bitcoin and rebuying at lower price.

In the alt-coin space however quite a few of the more established alts have had good runs lately. For example peercoin is having very nice spike after what must have been agonising long drop for peer-coin holders.

Others enjoying spikes in price include Dogecoin, Feathercoin, Namecoin, Darkcoin and probably a few others, noteably not litecoin (yet?). As bitcoin mining becomes less profitable are miners shifting to other alt-coins instead ? Is it worth considering the idea of switching some bit-coin to established alt-coins instead of fiat ?

Unfortunately Cloakcoin is not on the list of alt-coins getting a boost lately, my ‘favorite’ pick of the anoncoins is in complete disarray now and looks quite likely to be heading down to zero. I would love the devs to proove me wrong and pull a rabbit out of a hat with the promised POSA anonymity technology, but that scenario is looking less and less likely every day. After failed audit and missed deadlines the developers have all but disappeared now and coin looks to be dying. Very sad really, looked so exciting based on what was promised, credentials of the developers in the end dissapointed.

With most of my favourite investments heading down, it is testing times for my core assumptions that gold, silver and bitcoin will offer protection through financial calamity which is coming. However I still hold strong. Peering below the booming stock market the global economy looks as precarious as ever from my viewpoint. The soothing tales of recovery will eventually be replaced with shocking news that no-one could have seen coming.

20 thoughts on “Heading down

    1. Cheers for the comments Jean.

      If anyone is looking at that peercoin chart and thinking of joining the fun I’d be a bit wary. Looking a bit like a double top might be about to play out there.

      Momentum fading

      I’m liking the look of Dark coin just now, in short term at least

      1. Thanks for the link, it looks similar than some French analysts I’m following, a good one I remember is “The global economy is like a mosquito looking for a windshield” 🙂

    1. Hi thanks for commenting. Hadn’t heard about PayPal, are they making pro bitcoin noises ? I’m a bit slack with news at times, in general I assess the market purely on shape of the chart.

      In terms of price it looks like there might be support at that top line after all which is looking quite promising for avoiding that trip down to $200.

      Don’t want to promise trips to the moon, but it is in realms of possibility bitcoin can shoot to ridiculous new all-time highs.

      1. http://techcrunch.com/2014/09/23/paypal-bitcoin/

        In 23rd, after this PayPal news, Bitcoin price has climbed from $395 to $452 in less than an hour, then today we see $400-$410 level again… That was whales taking advantage of news I guess, classic pump and dump event…

        Anyways today has shown us, moonshot is cancelled for another month, and we are still heading down to $250-$300 range before a gigantic rise. (hopefully)


      2. Very interesting slam down of positive news! Just like in gold market, any gold positive news is cancelled with big selling. Mope, management of perception. I wonder who the big whale is? Someone who doesn’t like monetary competition with $US is my guess, someone powerful who might be in possession of seized bitcoins for example.

  1. That support line makes no sense at the moment, and also, the price has dropped further to $322 in just one hour… My guess is: We will witness a short sideways action (1 day or 1week) (dropping trading volumes is good sign) at around $320-370 range, if $370 is not passed then we will see a huge sudden drop to $250-300 range.. I suggest to wait for a better picture on charts.

    On the other hand, If I was a day trader or gambler, I would definitely give this price a shot, +- %7 movements start happening and it pays out really well in short terms if you bet at the right times.


  2. Update: $300 resistance looks strong for now, let’s see for how long it will hold. A bounce back to $320-330 (then $353-364 if passes $330 then to the moon? :)) is possible from here. However I still think, it will go lower than $300 since this is only psychological price level.

  3. My last update: $275 flash crash happened as expected. Now we have a really small problem 🙂 30K BTC Sell wall sitting at $300 at Bitstamp. This is a sign of we are back to volumes when 2013 bubble was happening.
    Welcome to the initiation of the Bubble 2014! Enjoy! (It can still go to $200 but I don’t give a f…, and I am buying like there is no tomorrow. If you have some spare money to take high risk with, I suggest you do the same)

    Good luck everyone! Thanks for the tips AF!

  4. Don’t have much time for a post at the momement but heres a view of bitcoin crashing. This chart is showing 1 Week candles.

    Next support level I’m looking at is previous bubble high somewhere about $270 ish. I still think trip to bottom of channel is coming, near $200 or under

  5. Bitcoin has failed to form a promising reversal pattern. I was expecting price shoots to around $365-$400 this week, however it looks like the market wants cheaper coins. Declining pattern continues to $200 – $175 as AF suggests. If you observe the charts starting from August 3rd you will clearly see the proof. Buy orders are getting weaker every day.

    Keep in mind that below $300 is not profitable for mining operations, unless they use free electricity. So the Bitcoin Supply may decrease overtime if the price persists at these levels. And that will eventually cause higher demand and higher prices.

    Bitcoin is like flipping a coin nowadays. %50.5 chance to go back to $1,000, %49 chance for $0 and %0.5 chance for $100,000. Pick your side!

  6. Almost 3 weeks without any post from Afbitcoin, we miss your analysis 😉
    Furthermore, so many things have happened and your latest post wasn’t very optimistic. So let’s show you some encouraging signs 🙂


    See that interesting yellow dashed line. Technical indicators are not very good OK but they are getting better.


    See those 2 interesting yellow dashed lines on log view. they are maintaining price in a sloping way. A good entry point would be when price goes above orange dashed line.


    LTC is in a pretty good shape since 2014-08-18 but yesterday MACD crossed below signal line and price went back under WMA(17D). Support is being tested once again now. Let’s see what is going on.

    1. Hey Artiti thanks for your comment, yes I am well overdue another post. Actually I’ve been noticing a few bullish signs myself this morning was thinking Stoch RSI looks pretty bullish on chart showing weekly candles. Will try and get a new post out soon 🙂

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