Updated log view

Theres been a bit of time elaspsed since my last ‘nice bull moves’ post so maybe time for another look at bitcoin. To start with heres a chart showing linear price scale, and 4hour candles, bitstamp data.

You can see that spike which occurred after my last post. However we didn’t get a move up through the next trendline, which didn’t really surprise me to be honest. This long grind down has to shake out more weak hands yet.

Instead we found quite strong resistance roughly were I expected and now trying to hold support on the original trendline which was broken up from.

So now onto the main thing I wanted to have a look at, which is my updated log chart. Here it is, as usual showing bitstamp data but with log price scale this time, and one day candles.

I’ve mentioned several times by now how I expect to eventually reach the bottom trendline, so far it looks like we are still on course. In fact its quite uncanny how accurate those arrows I sketched in are proving to be, particularly that red one! Judging by the eerie accuracy of those arrows it looks like rally might continue a bit then the next grind down starts. Unless price diverges from the path I laid out of course.

So far the bitcoin market appears intent on grinding down despite quite regular good news (about venture capitalists, new technology, new adoptions and so on). When the bearish correction is finally over, all this will be a good platform for the next big rises when they finally occur.

Until then its hard to get bullish until I see the price climb convincingly above that upper red resistance line.

edit:

Zooming out gives a picture of where my channel came from ..

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13 thoughts on “Updated log view

    1. Thats a nice trendline you spotted, looks like might be a lower parallel with same slope to ones on my chart. Still a strong bearish headwind. I think last two bubbles are more and more better described as one big bubble which is still deflating. Its similar to the giant one in the early days of mtGox. Wish i could still access that data in trading view..

      1. Hi Jean-Phillippe, thanks for those links. I’ve just been perusing them that last one is pretty cool. Funny i hadn’t thought to look at bitcoin charts for MtGox Data. Frustratingly I am sure trading view still has mtgox data there but its not listed, so how to find it. .. maybe i can make something up from other sources some time. I used to like the ‘all time’ view !

      2. Hi Jean-Phillipe, ‘monkeefonix’ who made that merged chart has told me how to do it! Turns out all i had to do is type in MTGOX:BTCUSD into trading view to reach that data. Thanks for your help, i’ll have a play about with that at some point.

    1. Its a very good question!!!

      I’ll have a go at writing my own thoughts but of course you have to come to your own conclusions.

      In short yes I would still recommend bitcoin as long term investment and as long as you understand risk involved. In short term I think it will likely go down further though. Longer term I am still bullish. If I didn’t have any I would be keen to hold some now but I am quite impatient at times.

      Personally I’m not buying at the moment, but not selling either. For me the bitcoin i have it a bit like a lottery ticket but with much better odds but it won’t change my life in any way if it goes to zero.

      One significant risk for me is that something ‘better’ gains huge momentum and replaces it one day, eg like facebook replaced myspace, Or possible it won’t scale well as adoption increases further. I don’t think crypto will go away but in the end bitcoin might not be the most popular or best technology. However bitcoin still appears to have unassailable lead for now.

      I also still regard physical gold and silver to be excellent investments too. I view them as safer than bitcoin but with less potential upside.

      Although economic news often talks about the recovery in the economy the cold hard facts are that there is too much debt to raise interest rates, western economies are engaged in quantitative easing and can’t get out of it.. The US has ended its QE supposedly but Japan is now going full tilt. All the money created by central banks is not being lent into the economy (because fragile banks are required to hold certain amount more of liquid assets than they used to). Money velocity is historically low but when that picks up inflation will become rampant I think, the inflationary energy is stored ready to be unleashed, it hasn’t ‘gone’. If the world slides into ‘overt’ depression then i think the central banks will unleash a new wave of quantitive easing which will dwarf all previous.

      Well this is turning into more of an essay than i intended but in short the main thesis I continue to believe is that the fiat /central banking system (as it is today) is heading towards ruin and gold, silver and bitcoin will all preform very well in years to come.

      1. My prediction is that the next bitcoin bubble will be fueled by an economic crisis that leads to bail-ins, like what happened in March 2013 with Cypress. Otherwise we will see a slow grind for the foreseeable future.

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