Trendline reached

First of all Happy New Year for 2015 ! I wonder what 2015 will bring.. Maybe a huge bitcoin bubble and the end of precious metal bear phase ? How about a profound mass awakening of the people about how the monetary system steals their wealth to redistribute it to the globalistic elite and a peaceful revolution of the people ushering in a new golden age and the end of central banking and war! Maybe government(s) will spontaneously turn over a new leaf and stop intruding on our privacy? Well I can dream, anyway I hope you all have a great and prosperous year.

On with the theme of this post. With bitcoin dropping in value on bitstamp by about 4.3% as I write this which is quite a big drop, I’ve happened to notice that the log trendline marking bottom of upwards rising channel has finally been reached. This is the fruition of my prediction first made back in September Heading Down and which I’ve restated several times since, that I expected a long grind down to this trendline.

Here is how the chart is looking today with that line now reached;

The arrows which I painted on those months ago showing the path to the bottom trendline have turned out to be pretty good approximation really. Will the last one showing a big bullish rebound off the trendline come true ? I suppose we’ll find out in the near future.

If that support doesn’t hold then I think that will be the end for the log channel which I have followed since around the time this blog began! Which is quite a shocking thought in some ways. Is bitcoin then going to fall off a cliff and head down to double digits or lower! Well I don’t think its time to panic quite yet, From my own perspective at least, bitcoin still seems to being increasingly adopted around the web despite the fact that prices are still dropping. I’m looking for next support around the horizontal area where the April 2013 bubble peaked which is somewhere about $270. Bitcoin doesn’t have to go off a cliff but could continue grinding along for some time yet if the bullish rebound fails to materialise.

I was intending to finish with an update to my ‘all time’ log chart which also includes Gox data but running out of time to comment on that one. It shows a similar view to this chart but with very similar trendline already looking to be breached! Is that an omen of trend failing to hold? What the heck heres that chart too.

Happy New Year

8 thoughts on “Trendline reached

    1. Do you think bitcoin is currently oversold (i.e. what do you think a fair price should be)? It is bizarre to have had such a wide adoption of bitcoin over the past year and see price stuck in such a long downtrend. We thought the correction from the last bubble was over by May 2014 and here we are stuck in a downtrend since July.

      1. Still trying to absorb the long term channel being broken but not wanting to make snap pronouncements. Looking at RSI bitcoin does look kind of oversold but thats not to say it can’t go down further. Key is staying above that horizontal blue line for me. Below that there is real possibility of further big drops.

        Fair value of a bitcoin is very hard to say. You can get dark coins for only a few bucks. Bitcoin intrinsically is not much different but has much higher value due to being the most established. Bitcoin can go a lot lower or a lot higher a lot depends on how the herd move.

        With a tin hat firmly in place I sometimes wonder if bitcoin is sold at key strategic moments in order to deliberately break through trendlines. There are powerful forces who do not like monetary competition.

  1. Bitstamp has just suspended its service for fraud suspicion…
    Exactly one year ago, we had been goxed. Are we about to be bitstamped ?

    Well, I wish you an happy new year 2015… even if it is not starting in a good way 😦

  2. They lost about 19 KBTC!!!
    I remember just after gox bankruptcy, they wrote an email saying BS like that “we are the securiest bitcoin trading plateform” and bla bla bla.

    1. Its becoming a very familiar story unfortunately. I’ve lost bitcoin personally in bitcoinica and mintpal in similar circumstances so I know how it feels. Bottom line is you can’t trust anyone to hold your bitcoin, doing so is a large risk.

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