First of all Happy New Year for 2015 ! I wonder what 2015 will bring.. Maybe a huge bitcoin bubble and the end of precious metal bear phase ? How about a profound mass awakening of the people about how the monetary system steals their wealth to redistribute it to the globalistic elite and a peaceful revolution of the people ushering in a new golden age and the end of central banking and war! Maybe government(s) will spontaneously turn over a new leaf and stop intruding on our privacy? Well I can dream, anyway I hope you all have a great and prosperous year.
On with the theme of this post. With bitcoin dropping in value on bitstamp by about 4.3% as I write this which is quite a big drop, I’ve happened to notice that the log trendline marking bottom of upwards rising channel has finally been reached. This is the fruition of my prediction first made back in September Heading Down and which I’ve restated several times since, that I expected a long grind down to this trendline.
Here is how the chart is looking today with that line now reached;
The arrows which I painted on those months ago showing the path to the bottom trendline have turned out to be pretty good approximation really. Will the last one showing a big bullish rebound off the trendline come true ? I suppose we’ll find out in the near future.
If that support doesn’t hold then I think that will be the end for the log channel which I have followed since around the time this blog began! Which is quite a shocking thought in some ways. Is bitcoin then going to fall off a cliff and head down to double digits or lower! Well I don’t think its time to panic quite yet, From my own perspective at least, bitcoin still seems to being increasingly adopted around the web despite the fact that prices are still dropping. I’m looking for next support around the horizontal area where the April 2013 bubble peaked which is somewhere about $270. Bitcoin doesn’t have to go off a cliff but could continue grinding along for some time yet if the bullish rebound fails to materialise.
I was intending to finish with an update to my ‘all time’ log chart which also includes Gox data but running out of time to comment on that one. It shows a similar view to this chart but with very similar trendline already looking to be breached! Is that an omen of trend failing to hold? What the heck heres that chart too.
Happy New Year