And more falling

Bitcoin down another 14% this morning. Heres the charts, starting with log price.

Almost as an afterthought to my last post I suggested there might be a channel with support at the bottom of it. At the moment it looks like the price hit that line more or less spot on. I’m expecting this to be the end of this steep drop (for now at least).

On the linear chart we appear to be overshooting that support line, but not by much.

Bitcoin now down -17% in the time I started writing this post, so still falling! Some people are now thinking snap up the cheap bitcoins but I’m not so sure the time is ripe yet.

6 thoughts on “And more falling

  1. Why do all the chart analysis I see omit the torrent of money being printed every 10 minutes. It’s going down until the block reward halving. I’m thinking of starting a campaign to fork the blockchain by getting the miners to adopt a new reward structure, reducing total rewards per unit time, and kimoto’s gravity well for difficulty. Would you be down with cheerleading for this?

    1. Hi Jason, thanks for commenting.

      Its true bitcoin still has high inflation and will for some time to come, I assume the minting process is what you are referrring to as money printing. I used to have a nice chart of that somewhere maybe I should take another look if I can find it again.
      I can imagine a lot of resistance to the idea of forking the blockchain though. Do you not think it would it undermine confidence in bitcoin if such a thing happened ? However I don’t know much about the reward scheme you are talking about, perhaps you can share some links ?

      1. Yeah if bitcoin was able to go from $100 to $1200 last year, I don’t think “inflation” is the issue here. Although I would welcome an explanation of the price collapse from the 300 level. Perhaps this is due to the bitstamp crisis playing out?

      2. In developer lingo, a soft fork is any change or upgrade that is backwards compatible. Old nodes, or miniers, won’t understand the transaction, but won’t reject it. A hard fork is incompatible. Any consensus change is a hard fork, and I think every change I want requires a hard fork. The multi-sig transaction type was a soft fork.

        I think the bitcoin foundation with it’s conflicts of interest is undermining confidence. For example, the zerocoin protocol upgrade was rejected by the foundation because it provides anonymous transactions, and a board member runs the biggest paid mixing service to provide anonymous transactions.

        I would have more confidence in bitcoin lasting longer than a decade if the community did come together to fix the economic problems of bitcoin. Right now it’s got third rate tech and is aging poorly compared to the new competition.

        I will need to prepare a short paper on the reward scheme. It is no where else right now.

        Also to James, btc went to 1200 on mtgox trading bots. That was insider manipulation. The report based on the leaked trade data showed the bots continued to push up the price even when mtgox had lost internet connectivity.

        The bottom line on the block reward reduction; miners can agree to lower payouts so their holding can appreciate, or they can shutdown and go home. Mining has had a massive malinvestment fuelled by inflation.

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