Time to sell the S&P500

Its been a fantastic ride for those in the share market but is the end in sight?

Here is a view of S&P Index on log price scale stretching back 30 years or so. Each candle is one month.

We can make a large bullish channel from the 2 main lows. How much of this bullishness is really just the purchasing power of the dollar falling? (erm… just about all of it) But regardless, price is finding resistance and unable to get back into the top half of the channel.

Looking at RSI prices are too high. On MACD a bearish cross looks to be in progress. I’ve missed out on the stock market unfortunately but there is no chance of me entering now. The bottom of that channel is around 1000 which is a 50% price drop. That is not unreasonable to forsee.

Here is how it looks on linear price scale showing latest rally

Its a new paradigm it will go up forever!!!

(just to clarify I don’t really think that last statement)

edit:

As discussed in comments when i say time to sell the stock market, I am thinking on long term timescales. Actual collapse may still be some time away. On shorter timescale (and thanks to central planners and plunge protection) the bullish trendlines are still being strictly obeyed. (Until the time they dramatically do plunge)

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8 thoughts on “Time to sell the S&P500

    1. ps I wouldn’t like to give specific advice I’m totally unqualified. I guess I can say that I’m not ‘all in’ though I am quite heavily invested much more than often recommended 5%. My wife would never let us gho all in so its not an option for me.

  1. It’s bearshit.
    We all agree to think that system will end up but nobody knows when.
    A man who claims exactly when it will happen is a clown.

    Jean-Phillipe, check that video in french-canadian

    and skip the 6 first minutes of his self-advertising if you want.
    Martin Prescott is giving pretty smart tools/indicators for determining step by step what things have been done yet and what is missing before collapse coming.

    Take a look on http://geab.eu/en/ (fr : http://geab.eu/) They publish anticipation bulletins 10 times a year (have to pay or grab some somewhere). To me, t’s too much pro-european but it’s quite refreshing to read it.

    @Af : First time you write about stock exchange don’t you ?
    – you should draw the support line on the 2nd chart. This might be a good indicator to point out when the reversal would begin. Plus checking volumes (and see when it is/will be getting lower). Stocks in “euphoria mode” since 2009 !

    1. Yes my first stock exchange chart! Its true timescale on first chart is very very long scale. An ‘imminent collapse on that timescale could easily mean waiting another year or more’. You could get lucky get in, make profit and get out before the collapse but I personally don’t like the odds.

      On second chart I’ve been monitoring a pitchfork for some time, though haven’t posted about it. May add that later when i have more time. But lines of support are very well defined. To the point of absurdity you might even say with plunge protection team stepping in to prevent any drop. The central planners certainly intend to keep people invested in there right up to the bitter end.

    2. Lines of support via the pitchfork I mentioned earlier. It probably will be possible to time the exit quite well by looking at these if you have a trader mentality. On short timescales it looks like ‘trend is your friend’, on longest timescales as my post suggests stock market is probably near top.

    3. Thanks, interesting links.

      The thing is we don’t know how long each step is going to take. Could all the events in one step happen in a week ? everything could go very fast.

      No one can predict what’s going to happen .. unless something is planned and being prepared. Let’s say China announcing Renminbi is now backed by Gold, that must be something planned in details and that could definitely generate quite a chaos ..

      1. It feels like living out tragic myth in slow motion. Its happening but people around you don’t belive or ignore but the pieces keep falling into place and the war mongering leaders make insane mad mistakes which are so predictable you knew they would do them but everyone around you continues to ignore. All is normal, its not really happening, in fact you are a bit crazy if you think its happening.But it keeps happening if you look. Surely now the facade will slip. People will see. But still they dont! Its in slow motion.

        Read that Jim Willie article, I read a lot of his stuff. Perhaps the immenance is exaggerated but I think the wheels in motion he talks about are turning.

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