Exciting

Bitcoin surging up at the moment, in a quite exciting way actually, soon to push up past $300 by look of it. I’d had almost forgotten what a bull run feels like. Since I started posting about green shoots a while back its starting to feel like winds of change are in the air. (Not to tempt fate the big grizzley bear too much I hope)

Heres update to my last post in which I expected a correction which didn’t happen, btc-e with 4 hour candles this time.

Bitcoin busted up through the latest upper red line which had previously repelled it twice, then pushed up through the purple dotted line where again I thought there might be more resistance. On this chart you also see several victories for bulls over lower red trend lines in the past.

Could there ‘may’ be some resistance, at about $312 where I put a red dashed section over my green trendline. 312$ is a prediction I made recently after looking at gold / btc ratio but really was being a bit cheeky trying to predict an exact figure like that. However..

Looking at log price scale chart of btc-e a quick glance shows where I expect the real battle to lie a little higher than that.

The down trend is very obvious on here, if bitcoin keeps surging up at similar rate it will encounter that tough upper resistance line at about $340. Imagine if bitcoin breaks bullishly above that channel then I’d be seriously thinking of getting onboard before the ship sails. Otherwise price may fall back to ‘the accumulation zone’ with more time to perhaps acquire some more cheaper bitcoin at your lesuire. I personally don’t think there will be a new lower low though.

I’ll finish this post with another look at my ‘all time log chart’, showing bitcoin from days of MtGox (hollow candles) all the way up to now using btce for recent bitcoin data.

The little bit at the end shows a nice collection of green candles reminiscent of the early stages of some big runs in the past. I’m checking regularly to see if the trendlines are still being obeyed after the failure of the long term channel, I think they are, but jury still out I suppose.

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10 thoughts on “Exciting

    1. I was able to average down to $316 when I closed both my eyes and took a huge leap of faith and bought a bunch at $200 during the plunge

      1. I learned a lot after losing a lot of money in the silver bubble a few years ago trying to chase it up to $50/oz. If in 2011 you told me silver would be trading at $16/oz in 2015, I would have 1) been shocked and then 2) tried justified that by saying that it means we must be in a deflationary spiral and the Dow would be at 4000. Of course I would have been wrong and wrong.

        Need to be even more careful with bitcoin. I am really glad I didn’t try to chase price up to $1200 and stayed out of it during that entire bubble.

    2. Thanks for the conversation, nice to hear others experiences.

      Silver been a huge learning experience for me too learning about precious metals is what primed me to be ready for bitcoin when it came along.

      I don’t have a clue what my average entry is, in bitcoin terms I think I might still be up thanks to ones I bought early but I have made trades I’d rather forget such as buying back in too high during this bubble collapse, although it seemed justified at the time. Plus dabbling in alt-coins and mintpal has cost me.

      I’m buying in bitcion again at the moment by selling some gold I bought with bitcoin profit near the top of that last bubble. Its a bit of a risk but one I like the odds. If bitcoin does dip again I will proabably continue to increase my holding at lower prices.

      1. I’m doing the opposite. I’m beginning to release some of my holdings here and as price goes higher. It is unlikely to get past 330 in the short term and I want to free up cash to buy at lower prices around 240-250 the accumulation zone. If price never goes below 290 again from here on out I will happily ride my current stash to 5000 BTC/$.

      2. I’m not planning selling but am planning to buy more, assuming price does drop as you say. I usually use localbitcoin for my trading and have found that even if you guess the move correctly prices are so smoothed out and spread is so big hardly makes it worth the effort except on long timescales.

      3. It depends on how much you have invested and how much you want to invest I guess. If I had no bitcoins, I’d be adding here too.

  1. Looks like pullback has begun. Price stalled the last 2 days and failed to get to 300 so I guess we’re heading to 240-250.

    1. Don’t think is a pullback. On daily view, today we have a candle with a long lower shadow. Means bulls are thinking there were cheap bitcoins to scoop up today.

      According ichimoku method : For now, while BTC > $261, target is $316. If BTC < 261, target is 240 and then 232.

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