End of the Bear Trend

I’ve started a thread of this theme in the bitcoin forums and thought might aswell make it a post too.

The bears have had all the fun in the last year but is the end in sight ? At the moment market is awash with pessimism and negativity. Could be the perfect time for a bottom to confound investors.

Heres BTC-E with a log price scale.

If bitcoin rallies up to the top of the bullish channel (marked in purple lines) it will be finally pushing free from the bubble collapse.

There will be some tough resistance to get past on upper red line but I think theres a good chance we will, possibly after being wedged under it for a while first.

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6 thoughts on “End of the Bear Trend

  1. On the flip side, we could easily have said the same thing in April 2014 and said that 350 was the bottom (oh wait, we did!). Until price gets above that highest downtrend line, there is still a chance we see prices below 160.

    1. True. I guess we’ll find out in time, I am reserving some dry powder for that kind of eventuality. But I have been adding to my stack and happy to do so at these prices.

      But the bear trend has to end sometime I feel that it has extended longer than it would have in the days before shorting was easy. Personal opinion is that these prices are overly cheap.

      If stock market crash happens (which will happen just a question of when), bank failures / bailins, QE. All that stuff. Plus bitcoin halving soon. Could all add up to a perfect storm.

      Anyway, as usual I urge everyone to make your own conclusions my opinions are NOT financial advice.

      1. Wait, what is this bitcoin halving soon? Is it like a stock split? That would be a great idea actually.

      2. Its not like a stock split but instead it is a halfing of the rate of creation of bitcoin. In other words bitcoin inflation is halved. At the moment miners who solve a block receive a reward of 25 bitcoin. (usually divided between lots of people in a pool). When bitcoin started the reward used to be 50 bitcoin per solved block. Sometime next year it will half again to 12.5 bitcoin per block. Halfings will continue to occur until there is no new bitcoin being minted and bitcoin will have no further inflation.

        There is plenty of debate about the effect on price eg miners suddenly have half the profits, some people think it will cause price to fall, but for me in my simple understanding the fact that every ten minutes only half the amount of new bitcoin is minted will mean less bitcoin available in the market, less supply causes price to rise. Certainly that ‘seemed’ to happen last time it was halved.

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