Litecoin rampage

I’ve refrained from posting about Litecoin’s bull run so far but finally decided to take a look at see whats up. Note, I don’t own any Litecoin myself and not planning to buy into this rise so I only look out of curiosity.

Here’s a 1 day chart of Litecoin versus Bitcoin, ie LTCBTC from BTC-E exchange. Rising line means Litecoin rising in value relative to Bitcoin.

Jolly hockey sticks! I describe this as a rampage. Thats my technical term for a vertical rising chart. If you converted bitcoin to litecoin in the first half of May then congratulations! Thats like gone up by 5 or 6 times in value! (so far..) and thats at a time when Bitcoin itself is also up about 20% against the US$ !!!

So why this price rise? Well I can only speculate but for one thing Litcoin is due to have a ‘halving’ in near future which may be a factor. * Meaning of course the rate of minting of new Litecoins will drop by a half. I think it will be Litecoin’s first halving in fact (but might be wrong).

Another reason ‘could’ be that some holders of bitcoin see risk in the ongoing block size debate and lack of clear resolution about how to resolve and have decided to jump ship to Litecoin for now.

Maybe Litecoin is also benefiting from Greek referendum and Chinese stock collapse. Does Litecoin have same restrictions as Bitcoin in China ?

And many, which I don’t want to be a part of, are the herd stampeding in late looking for profits. However I also thought that when Litecoin was at about 0.012 less than a week ago and have missed large profits since as it continues its phenomenal rise. Knowing my luck I will finally be overcome by greed and go in just before it crashes.

Heres some more charts, similar chart zoomed out but with 1 week candles.

We can see that Litecoin is prone to these massive spikes up with at least 2 comparable if not bigger spikes in the past. On both occasions followed by massive crash. Is this one going to dwarf those that have gone before? Wether it does or not I don’t know but I do feel certain those that buy in too late will be left holding the bags which is the risk I’m not willing to take.

I’ll finish with same chart but this time on log price scale.

On this scale you can see that Litecoin had another huge spike starting from lower levels which wasn’t so noticeable on linear price scale. For historical interest I’ve marked in a bullish channel I used to look at which I lost interest in after Litecoin fell through the bottom of it. Similar to Bitcoin, Litecoin has also fallen below what used to be solid floor on log scale.

I’ve also added in a flat/bearish channel which I just spotted and ominously Litecoin is near the top of it.

For me we are already in the danger zone.

16 thoughts on “Litecoin rampage

  1. Thanks for the update! If it’s still going up to 9 or 10, I’m probably going to sell some and buy cheaper later (hoping that I’m not leaving the train too early ..).

  2. Thank you very much Afbitcoins for your analysis.
    To me, things can be observed in a different way.

    This chart show a rally pretty healthy because :
    – strong volumes when price goes up.
    – not many bodycandles are completely out of bollinger band (it’s not a 0-gravity-rise)
    – no big intra-candle-volatility (on this chart 1 candle is 4 hours).

    On the opposite, previously chart drew kind of steps. Since july 6th, it looks like more as a steep slope. I woudn’t be surprised to see this slope continuing till the focus is on greece-debt and chinese-market-correction.

    Also, (perhaps) many new entrants on cryptocurrency markets are not willing to buy few bitcoin cents. It’s psychologic, they prefer to get LTC15 instead of 0.5BTC.

    But at the end of the story, and as usual with crypto, it will end by bloodbath.

    If you boarded Litecoin-ship : hold it tight Folks.

  3. I’m kind of scared to offer my opinions in case I influence people to do the wrong thing. If Litecoin goes up another 10 times after I persuade people to sell or not go in then I feel bad. Some people are saying its mad to sell now because the halving hasn’t even happened yet.

    If I had been in Litecoin early I would probably consider selling a little bit here and there as price continues up but not all of it. Then maybe sell the rest on the first deadcat peak. You do want to try and avoid the crash if you can. Whatever happens to the early birds you likely already well up. (I’m bit jealous should have seen this bull move coming)

    This is the same dilemma we faced before in bitcoin on its vertical rise. Where do you get off on a vertical rise ?

    1. Well, I have 3 exit strategies :
      1 double-top pattern as it happened in december 2013. It was very emotionnal, remember : 12/06 $34, 12/07 $16 and 12/13 $32 (with low volumes to get back over $30). Next time it would be more terrible.

      2 Everybody watches each other out with the corners of their eyes before the massive dump, I mean calm market with dojis and low volume.

      3 Too much volatilty, so I’m afraid and I sell a big amount of my stack and I try to earn some bucks with intraday trades during the up-and-down period.

      Most of the time before having #1 or #2, #3 happens very oftenly.

      About your precautions of not influencing people furthermore if you have not a big conviction, you’re completly right.
      Do as usual, you do it so well.

    2. I’m perfectly happy holding off on litecoin for now and waiting for it to get a little bigger. At $5-$8, this is equivalent to bitcoin being at $20-$32, so we’re right around the bticoin’s 2011 first bubble or a little before it in terms of market size. If I get in on litecoin before bitcoin’s equivalent 2013 bubble I’m happy. The volatility and rollercoaster ride at this point would just be unbearable.

  4. Another observation about this spike it that it is less steep than previous ones, which may be a hint it can continue going up longer. Could it be we are not really even at the vertical rise bit yet ! 😮

  5. Well its starting to look like my first instincts last night might have been close to the mark afterall, Litecoin is falling hard just now.

    On the flat / bearish channel I was looking at Litecoin briefly spiked above the top before this scary drop.

    If Litecoin can rally again and convincingly get above the channel its game on again but for now I think its more likely this bull run might be ending here.

  6. Sorry for insiting but to me, it’s not a critical situation.

    According to ichimoku, at the end of the day, if price will be :
    – above $6.26 : no problem
    – between $6.26 and $5.32 : small alert
    – under $5,32 : watch out, thing can be worse… or better.

    1. It is true this could be a correction which is probably needed after so much bullishness. Maybe this is only half way, and a chance for latecomers (like me) to get some cheap… maybe..

  7. Well I tried to trade that first dead cat bounce with small amount of play funds but timed it very badly. Litecoin heading down again just now and for me not very hopeful of returning to those peaks any time soon.

  8. Well as you wrote, we have experienced a bloody rampage but… but I’m not loosing hope to see litecoin going up. Seeing price above the ichimoku cloud at the end of month (means over $3.40) would make me think that we’re now in a bear-trap. So I’m hodling now.

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