I’ve refrained from posting about Litecoin’s bull run so far but finally decided to take a look at see whats up. Note, I don’t own any Litecoin myself and not planning to buy into this rise so I only look out of curiosity.
Here’s a 1 day chart of Litecoin versus Bitcoin, ie LTCBTC from BTC-E exchange. Rising line means Litecoin rising in value relative to Bitcoin.
Jolly hockey sticks! I describe this as a rampage. Thats my technical term for a vertical rising chart. If you converted bitcoin to litecoin in the first half of May then congratulations! Thats like gone up by 5 or 6 times in value! (so far..) and thats at a time when Bitcoin itself is also up about 20% against the US$ !!!
So why this price rise? Well I can only speculate but for one thing Litcoin is due to have a ‘halving’ in near future which may be a factor. * Meaning of course the rate of minting of new Litecoins will drop by a half. I think it will be Litecoin’s first halving in fact (but might be wrong).
Another reason ‘could’ be that some holders of bitcoin see risk in the ongoing block size debate and lack of clear resolution about how to resolve and have decided to jump ship to Litecoin for now.
Maybe Litecoin is also benefiting from Greek referendum and Chinese stock collapse. Does Litecoin have same restrictions as Bitcoin in China ?
And many, which I don’t want to be a part of, are the herd stampeding in late looking for profits. However I also thought that when Litecoin was at about 0.012 less than a week ago and have missed large profits since as it continues its phenomenal rise. Knowing my luck I will finally be overcome by greed and go in just before it crashes.
Heres some more charts, similar chart zoomed out but with 1 week candles.
We can see that Litecoin is prone to these massive spikes up with at least 2 comparable if not bigger spikes in the past. On both occasions followed by massive crash. Is this one going to dwarf those that have gone before? Wether it does or not I don’t know but I do feel certain those that buy in too late will be left holding the bags which is the risk I’m not willing to take.
I’ll finish with same chart but this time on log price scale.
On this scale you can see that Litecoin had another huge spike starting from lower levels which wasn’t so noticeable on linear price scale. For historical interest I’ve marked in a bullish channel I used to look at which I lost interest in after Litecoin fell through the bottom of it. Similar to Bitcoin, Litecoin has also fallen below what used to be solid floor on log scale.
I’ve also added in a flat/bearish channel which I just spotted and ominously Litecoin is near the top of it.
For me we are already in the danger zone.