Lift off

Not really unexpectedly bitcoin has steamrollered the top of the horizontal channel of my last post and for good measure is already up to $400.

Heres a 4 hour chart from Bitstamp

Ah this kind of rise reminds me of the gold old days, like when this happened back in Feb 2013, the start of a new bitcoin mania and bitcoin broke up above $20 on its way to challenge the all time high of $32 at the time.

Back to today, looking at longer timeframe gives more perspective. Heres a look at the weekly chart on log price scale.

By any stretch that last green candle is quite a big one. As you can see this chart has an upwards trending channel shown on it which I’ve featured in a few of my recent charts. After breaking up from the horizontal range of 2015 there doesn’t seem much to me stopping this rally spiking up to the middle of the channel somewhere near $500. Perhaps to end there (for now) or not.. who knows?

So why is bitcoin shooting up? Zerohedge is pointing to chinese capital controls being avoided. However with a halving drawing closer bitcoin has another reason to start going up. Suddenly all news is good news.

Continuing looking at the channel its interesting to note that bitcoin could get close to the old all time high and still be within the channel. If it goes on another bubble how high could it go? Mind boggling to think. But anyway without getting too far ahead lets enjoy this for what it is. Hope you accumulated some cheap bitcoins in the area I was calling the accumulation zone.

14 thoughts on “Lift off

    1. Yes that was quite a spike up!

      In fact actually almost exactly to the point I thought it might arrive to, which was the middle trendline on my chart. Quite proud of that guess πŸ™‚

      1. What is current status? Are we doing a bull pennant with price stabilizing in the 380’s or will we go into a bear trend the next 1-2 weeks and test resistance turned support at 300-320 which had been strong resistance for the entire 2015 year?

        I unloaded 60% of my BTC holdings during the last bear market block size panic since I had lost faith causing my average buy-in to rise to 350. So now I’m looking to buy back in on a correction, possibly in the 300-320 area?

      2. While thinking about the answer to my own question, my gut feeling is that we aren’t ready for the moon yet ($10,000 BTC). I would like to see us go into a bear phase and build support in the 300-320 area. We need a slow gradual rise to 500, 600, 700 etc instead of the spike we saw so that BTC can slowly infiltrate the news over a longer time period and the general public can become aware and become interested. We need a $100 billion market cap for price to be at $10,000 BTC and will need a lot of new money/later entrants to come in.

      3. Now that it is at 360 it has broken the 380 level which would have been the lower line of the bull pennant. I’m guessing it looks like it will retrace to the 300-320 area and look for support there.

  1. James my thoughts are similar to yours. I think probably we’ll have a mini bear phase now that the mini bubble has popped but most likely stay above that $320 area. With halving getting closer I think a new gradual rise will begin soon enough which will get steeper and steeper. Won’t surprise me to see bitcoin getting a new mania.

    1. Although with maybe less probability of happening I wouldn’t be totally surprised if bitcoin goes on another large bullish move before we all expect.

      1. Down to 330’s. Healthy correction we were waiting for. If it finds a bottom at 280-320 that will be good.

      2. Yes still looking like a healthy correction to me too. Expecting / hoping for strong support in this area.

        Heres a four hour chart.

        So far looks like support is being found here

      3. I think this last run-up goes to show 1) Bitcoin is not dead and 2) How quickly a bubble can start. But boy, does the chart look ugly right now. This will take a while to sort out and hopefully 300 holds. That’s a huge psychological barrier that price had been trying to escape all year. IMO, we need a slow/solid new uptrend that takes us back to 480-500 over the next few months which coincides with the halving which will give us the best chance of breaking 1000 and going to the moon.

      4. Yes looking a bit ugly now, dipped below $300. I didn’t really want to see it below $320. Starting to wish I’d cashed in a bit near that resistance line up at $500. Ah well.

        Volatility is extrordinary, almost scared to imagine what it will be like as the halving gets close.

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