Hodl or trade with caution

I have a sneaky feeling bitcoin’s current rise is too much too soon and will soon correct. I could be wrong so trade with caution. But this might be near top of this move. Anyway heres my prediction.

Setting aside the 4 hour charts and the bull fork for a while. My larger picture is still same as I posted in my recent Bitcoin Primed post but arrows projecting into the future have moved a little.

Heres bitstamp with 1 week candles and log price scale

Bitcoin is nearing a level of potential horizontal resistance. Looking at the rhythm of other peaks and dips I can imagine its time for a bit of a dip. This is just my suspicions not really ‘analysis’. The dip will look a bit like a dead cat bounce from the recent mini bubble up to $500.

Volume seems lower at the moment maybe signifying a bit of wariness. If this does correct down to the bottom of the bull channel that will be quite a large drop somewhere near $350 I’d estimate.

Safest bet is to hodl if you are already in. Otherwise maybe consider selling (or shorting) if it appears to bounce down from that horizontal line. Word of caution when bitcoin is in full on bull mode sometimes the corrections are flat but I’m not sure we are there yet.

If bitcoin pushes through that line of horizontal resistance instead of correcting down then we may quickly push up towards $600 just falling a little short as panic buying sets in. This scenario is also possible but in my view maybe a bit less likely.

2 thoughts on “Hodl or trade with caution

  1. Hi AF, thank you so much for sharing your ideas and sentiments about bitcoin. Oftenly I don’t completly agree with you, but at the end of the story I regulary said to myselft : “Damn it, I should have followed what AF wrote”.

    And in this case, I might be inclined to hodl.


    It has just passed over 0.764 fibonacci line of the latest rally.
    Plus according to ichimoku method, it’s full bullish. Even the chinkou span (green line) met the purple line as a resistance wich it could be the “natural” slope of the new bullish impulsion started in october.

    If a correction happens, daily tenkan (around $400) would be a pretty good support.

    1. Hi Artiti thanks for that. In hindsight maybe I’m underestimating bitcoin’s bullishness again but in any case I’ve also decided to hodl as this thing unfolds.

      (Believe it or not I don’t follow my own advice as written then wish I had! ) 😀

      Bitcoin is very bullish heading to the middle of the fork I posted previously and starting to try and push through that horizontal resistance.

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