With bitcoin failing to retest the midline of the fork, and down 6% as I write (edit 7%) (edit 8%), I decided to take a look how this is fitting in with my bullish fork on bitcoin log chart.
So heres the chart as bitcoin continues to fall ..
As you can see we fell through another support level and now heading down towards the next one below. It looks like bitcoin might test the area around the bottom of this fork. In coming days if we see further falls its easy to imagine price getting down to about $400.
This paints a picture of a dead cat bounce from the initial $500 spike however I dont think this is really a dead cat but will end up looking like a bear trap with price rebounding and continuing bullish moves. In my opinion we are just too near the halving for a real bear trend to develop.
In fact if you look back at charts in which I recently posted with arrows projecting future price moves I have included a kind of dead cat bounce on most of them. This move is so far playing out roughly how I have been expecting.
If you are brave (and know what you are doing) there is possibility of shorting or selling in the short term. Bitcoin could go lower than $400 even. Just as possible it can rebound from this drop. Volitility is hard to trade. Personally Im trying not to fixate on this short term noise.