So bitcoin has broken $7000? Or has it? What is bitcoin? Is it the one with ticker symbol btc that everyone calls bitcoin?
Do you remember when Satoshi Nakamoto published plans for the future scaling of bitcoin and said ” It would be goddamn brilliant to segregate the witness data the fuck out of the block chain. Who needs witness data? I don’t know why I put it there in the first place. Instead miners can utilise pay anyone addresses. Fuck the witness data” ?
No I don’t either. He didn’t say that, or words to that effect. He didn’t say lets scale bitcoin by taking as many transactions off chain as we can. He said lets make blocks bigger. So anyway. bitcoin cash is the real flag bearer of bitcoin as Satoshi conceived it? No?
Anyway with that little rant off my chest, please don’t get me wrong I still hold bitcoin segwit and bitcoin cash. And Dash and Byteball. Which I think completes my list of current favourites. I presumably hold bitcoin gold too. Not that I’ve bothered to look into it yet. And soon I will have bitcoin 2x aswell. With all the forking going on.
Anyway I realised I haven’t blogged for a long time. And there is sooo much happened in this crypto space its a bit of a shame I haven’t kept up to date with my thoughts on here.
So back to bitcoin, segwit. Wow, as in one of my last posts about all time highs being smashed. Here is again. Textbook bitcoin bull run, complete with previous all time high now looking like a little bump.
Lets have a look at it on linear price scale for maximum effect. Actually it has dipped slightly under 7k as I write. But still, that is steep
As always in this situation, where the price is increasing steeply and getting steeper one begins to wonder about where the spike will reach and the big crash afterwards? Unless this time is different. Which I doubt.
On the last bitcoin bubble (now looking like a little speed bump) I sold near the top of the first dead cat bounce which worked out very well as one of my best trades. This time things are different. I’m that bit wealthier as I hope are others who stayed with this blog over the time. Now there are things like tax to consider when cashing in and so forth.
In the last days I’ve cashed in quite a lot of my bitcoin segwit in actual fact. Not because I think the top is near, although it could be but just because I have another use for it and the time is right for me to diversify in other ways. I still have a decent stack. Bitcoin can go up, down or sideways from here and I won’t regret cashing in now.
But lets see if we can pick a top for fun. For that I switch back to log price scale.
Here we see a large bull channel and a more recent smaller steeper bull channel. Bitcoin is happily shooting up that steep channel. In the near term the top of that channel lies at about 8.5k. Could that be a good place for the top? Or maybe just a kind of correction before pushing up even higher. What if bitcoin goes even steeper aiming for the mid line of the larger bull channel. That would imply a gigantic spike up to about 13K. Possible? You bet.
For the bitcoin bubble to really pop we need a huge event. Like Mt Gox last time around. What would it be? My hunch is that it could be a huge segwit flaw. I could be wrong. Probably am, but thats how I see the tea leaves at this time.
Anyway on that bombshell I leave it there. Happy trading.