I just looked at my last blog post. It was written during the last bubble type spike up in progress (quite a while ago now, over a year?). With the price at about 7 or 8K I predicted at that time it might spike up to 13k (in US dollars). It was obvious to just about anyone with a modicum of experience that the market was in a bubble type move up. Which it was. 13K turned out to be an underestimate with it going above that mid-line of my long channel. In fact at the time when that channel was breached with price rushing upwards I wrongly (but didnt’ blog it) thought bitcoin was going to shoot to way higher than 20k . In hindsight a breach of a channel often turns out to be a false breakout but anyway.. All of which goes to show how hard it can be to predict when the pin will prick the bubble.
The other thing I had a bee in my bonnet about was segwit. Of which I wasn’t a fan. To be honest I’m still not but not going to waste time with my view on that here. But not so purist as once was. Nowadays we have seen the bitcoin cash fork in which it followed Satoshi supposed big block vison. Only for that to fall apart and another fork this time with Bitcoin Satoshi vision, a fork of bitcoin cash, following Satoshi vision of a peer to peer electronic cash system. Except Craig Wright how claims to be Satoshi has never managed to prove it and increasingly living up to a reputation of faketoshi. All of this has made it hard for me to support either fork of bitcoin cash.
I have stated many times on this blog how I like Dash. That feeling has only increased as time has passed. I am currently wondering why I haven’t yet converted all my bitcoin cash and bitcoin sv to Dash. Which regardless of Satoshi is the closest thing in crypto to ditigal cash. And its in the name.
As far as bitcoin goes. I like bitcoin more than bitcoin cash or bitcoin sv as a Dash hedge. Why hold bitcoin cash or bitcoin SV when Dash is doing it much better in that direction. Bitcoin on the other hand has gone in a different direction, it is going small blocks, offchain. So I view really is a hedge on Dash. It still has market mover advantage will that approach win over the big block direction?
Anyway this blog was never really a dash blog, it was bitcoin. Harking back to the time when bitcoin was really undisputed (maybe still is?). So in that spirit heres my chart…
What we see here in my opinion is a bubble that has corrected. Everyone is now appropriately bearish but indicators scream oversold and look to be ripe for trend to turn back bullish.
Maybe now is time to accumulate some crypto. By that I mean, some Dash and some bitcoin as a hedge.
(Although be wary that Dash is heading up a bit too much just now, maybe wait the dip)